Arkansas · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Arkansas House of Representatives?

All 100 seats are on the ballot. 51 seats make a majority. 51 make the majority supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are very likely to control the Arkansas House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 26.680% range 23–30
Avg. R seats: 73.480% range 70–77
Now: 20 D · 79 R · 1 vacant100 up this year

Republican supermajority now (79 of 100 seats; 51 needed for majority): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

20 D nowMarks: majority supermajority for each party79 R now

Republicans are very likely to control the Arkansas House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 23.880% range 20–28
Avg. R seats: 76.280% range 72–80
Now: 20 D · 79 R · 1 vacant100 up this year

Republican supermajority now (79 of 100 seats; 51 needed for majority): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

20 D nowMarks: majority supermajority for each party79 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 100 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

6 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D. 3 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

3 seats projected to flip: 3 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D19

Show 13 more

Likely D4

Lean D3

Toss-up3

Lean R1

HD-11

Likely R4

Solid R66

Show 60 more

Solid D16

Show 10 more

Likely D2

Lean D5

Toss-up2

Lean R4

Likely R4

Solid R67

Show 61 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Arkansas

Little Rock

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

HD-15Daniel HoltmeyerJohn P. CarrFlip risk54%Rep.71%Rep. HD-55Cynthia NationsMatthew BrownFlip risk54%Rep.67%Rep. HD-34Michael MiddlebrookJoey L. CarrFlip riskFlip risk55%Dem.51%Rep. HD-10Jacob AllenMindy McAlindonD flip61%Dem.66%Rep. HD-13Mitchell SmithScott RichardsonD flip62%Dem.62%Rep. HD-19Jamie AtkinsonSteve UngerD flipFlip risk68%Dem.51%Dem. HD-11Rey HernandezRebecca Burkes76%Rep.87%Rep.

Most likely to flip

HD-62Dexter R. MillerMark McElroyD flipD flip87%to flip81%to flip HD-71Cassandra MayesStephen BrightD flipD flip85%to flip72%to flip HD-67Andrew Cade EberlyKarilyn BrownD flipD flip85%to flip73%to flip HD-19Jamie AtkinsonSteve UngerD flipFlip risk68%to flip51%to flip HD-13Mitchell SmithScott RichardsonD flip62%to flip38%to flip HD-10Jacob AllenMindy McAlindonD flip61%to flip34%to flip HD-34Michael MiddlebrookJoey L. CarrFlip riskFlip risk55%to flip49%to flip HD-15Daniel HoltmeyerJohn P. CarrFlip risk46%to flip29%to flip HD-55Cynthia NationsMatthew BrownFlip risk46%to flip33%to flip HD-11Rey HernandezRebecca Burkes24%to flip13%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Simple-majority veto override

A majority of the members of each chamber can override the governor's veto.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

100 races, 68 without a contest between the major parties.

100 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
HD-1	● No Democrat● Mark A. Nichols	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+66	—
HD-2	● No Democrat● Trey SteimelINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+59	—
HD-3	● Carrie Huddleston● Stetson PainterINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+41.4R+52.1	Solid RSolid R	R+58	—
HD-4	● No Democrat● Jason NazarenkoINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+60	—
HD-5	● No Democrat● Mike Bishop	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+64	—
HD-6	● No Democrat● Cody Rogers	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+38	—
HD-7	● No Democrat● Brit McKenzieINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+28	—
HD-8	● No Democrat● Brian Armas	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+36	—
HD-9	● Diana Gonzales WorthenINC● Matt Goff	99%1% 82%18%	D+21.0D+9.4	Solid DLikely D	D+2	—
HD-10D flip	● Jacob Allen● Mindy McAlindonINC	61%39% 34%66%	D+2.0R+3.8	Lean DLean R	R+11	—
HD-11	● Rey Hernandez● Rebecca BurkesINC	24%76% 13%87%	R+5.4R+11.3	Lean RLikely R	R+18	—
HD-12	● No Democrat● Hope Hendren DukeINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+41	—
HD-13D flip	● Mitchell Smith● Scott RichardsonINC	62%38% 38%62%	D+2.3R+2.8	Lean DLean R	R+10	—
HD-14	● Timothy J. Heron Jr.● Nick BurkesINC	5%95% 4%96%	R+12.5R+17.9	Likely RSolid R	R+25	—
HD-15Flip risk	● Daniel Holtmeyer● John P. CarrINC	46%54% 29%71%	R+0.8R+5.4	Toss-upLean R	R+12	—
HD-16	● Letisha Hinds● Kendon UnderwoodINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+19.7R+22.4	Solid RSolid R	R+29	—
HD-17	● No Democrat● Randy TorresINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+52	—
HD-18	● No Democrat● Robin LundstrumINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+22	—
HD-19D flipFlip risk	● Jamie Atkinson● Steve UngerINC	68%32% 51%49%	D+3.6D+0.3	Lean DToss-up	R+7	—
HD-20	● Max Deitchler● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+23	—
HD-21	● Nicole ClowneyINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+47	—
HD-22	● David WhitakerINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	R+1	—
HD-23	● No Democrat● Kendra MooreINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+36	—
HD-24	● Ryan Intchauspe● Charlene Fite	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+45.6R+56.8	Solid RSolid R	R+63	—
HD-25	● Courtney King● Chad PuryearINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+25.4R+34.3	Solid RSolid R	R+41	—
HD-26	● No Democrat● James EatonINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+61	—
HD-27	● No Democrat● Steven WalkerINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+67	—
HD-28	● No Democrat● Bart SchulzINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+69	—
HD-29	● Deonna Morgan● Rick McClureINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+36.1R+45.1	Solid RSolid R	R+51	—
HD-30	● No Democrat● Josh Longmire	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+56	—
HD-31	● No Democrat● Jimmy GazawayINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+56	—
HD-32	● Erika Askeland● Jack LadymanINC	15%85% 9%91%	R+7.5R+13.3	Likely RLikely R	R+20	—
HD-33	● No Democrat● Jon MilliganINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+58	—
HD-34Flip riskFlip risk	● Michael Middlebrook● Joey L. CarrINC	55%45% 49%51%	D+1.0R+0.3	Toss-upToss-up	R+7	—
HD-35	● Audrey P. Willis● Robert Thorne Jr.	95%5% 63%37%	D+12.7D+3.3	Likely DLean D	R+3	—
HD-36	● Shamal C. Carter● Johnny RyeINC	1%99% 1%99%	R+20.6R+29.0	Solid RSolid R	R+36	—
HD-37	● No Democrat● Steve HollowellINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+41	—
HD-38	● No Democrat● Dwight ToshINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+49	—
HD-39	● No Democrat● Wayne LongINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+62	—
HD-40	● No Democrat● Shad PearceINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+60	—
HD-41	● No Democrat● Alyssa BrownINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+66	—
HD-42	● No Democrat● Jeremy Riddle	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+63	—
HD-43	● No Democrat● Rick BeckINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+47	—
HD-44	● No Democrat● Bill TeeterINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+65	—
HD-45	● No Democrat● Aaron PilkingtonINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+55	—
HD-46	● No Democrat● Tonya Fletcher	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+63	—
HD-47	● No Democrat● Lee JohnsonINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+66	—
HD-48	● No Democrat● Ryan RoseINCAlso: Hunter Jackson (L)	No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot	—	Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)	R+48	—
HD-49	● Jay RichardsonINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+12	—
HD-50	● Wendy Peer● Zachary GramlichINC	12%88% 7%93%	R+8.9R+14.3	Likely RLikely R	R+21	—
HD-51	● Jane-Ellen Udouj-Kutchka● Cindy CrawfordINC	1%99% 1%99%	R+20.2R+28.1	Solid RSolid R	R+35	—
HD-52	● No Democrat● Brent Montgomery	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+67	—
HD-53	● Jennifer Lewter● Matt DuffieldINC	1%99% 1%99%	R+21.0R+27.2	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
HD-54	● Doug Corbitt● Mary BentleyINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+24.9R+33.5	Solid RSolid R	R+40	—
HD-55Flip risk	● Cynthia Nations● Matthew BrownINC	46%54% 33%67%	R+0.8R+4.1	Toss-upLean R	R+11	—
HD-56	● Steve MagieINC● Mark Brannan	97%3% 64%36%	D+15.5D+3.2	Solid DLean D	R+4	—
HD-57	● No Democrat● Cameron CooperINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+68	—
HD-58	● No Democrat● Les EavesINCAlso: Jocelyn Fry (L)	No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot	—	Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)	R+52	—
HD-59	● No Democrat● Jim WootenINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+62	—
HD-60	● Beverly Coleman-Keown● Roger LynchINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+37.0R+46.3	Solid RSolid R	R+52	—
HD-61	● No Democrat● Jeremiah MooreINCAlso: Garrett Sheeks (L)	No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot	—	Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)	R+38	—
HD-62D flipD flip	● Dexter R. Miller● Mark McElroyINC	87%13% 81%19%	D+9.6D+9.1	Likely DLikely D	D+3	—
HD-63	● Lincoln BarnettINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+22	—
HD-64	● Ken FergusonINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+51	—
HD-65	● Glenn BarnesINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+47	—
HD-66	● Mark PerryINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+35	—
HD-67D flipD flip	● Andrew Cade Eberly● Karilyn BrownINC	85%15% 73%27%	D+8.0D+5.7	Likely DLean D	R+1	—
HD-68	● No Democrat● Brian S. EvansINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+55	—
HD-69	● Dean Hunter● David RayINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+22.9R+30.6	Solid RSolid R	R+38	—
HD-70	● Alex HolladayINC● Bo Renshaw	98%2% 74%26%	D+16.2D+6.1	Solid DLean D	R+1	—
HD-71D flipD flip	● Cassandra Mayes● Stephen Bright	85%15% 72%28%	D+7.9D+5.4	Likely DLean D	R+2	—
HD-72	● Talesha Dokes● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+46	—
HD-73	● Andrew CollinsINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+19	—
HD-74	● Tippi McCulloughINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+49	—
HD-75	● Ashley HudsonINC● Hunter Sadler	>99%<1% 96%4%	D+31.5D+17.9	Solid DSolid D	D+11	—
HD-76	● Joy C. SpringerINC● Isbac Ceja	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+77.2D+80.6	Solid DSolid D	D+76	—
HD-77	● Steven Person● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+60	—
HD-78	● No Democrat● Keith BrooksINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+30	—
HD-79	● Michael Mason● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+65	—
HD-80	● Denise Jones● No RepublicanAlso: Daniel Stuckey (L)	No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot	—	Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)	D+55	—
HD-81	● Gina Thomas-Littlejohn● R. J. HawkINC	11%89% 6%94%	R+9.0R+14.9	Likely RLikely R	R+21	—
HD-82	● No Democrat● Tony FurmanINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+32	—
HD-83	● No Democrat● Paul ChildressINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+45	—
HD-84	● No Democrat● Les WarrenINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+25	—
HD-85	● No Democrat● Richard McGrewINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+46	—
HD-86	● No Democrat● John MaddoxINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+70	—
HD-87	● No Democrat● DeAnn VaughtINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+58	—
HD-88	● No Democrat● Dolly HenleyINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+36	—
HD-89	● No Democrat● Justin GonzalesINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+54	—
HD-90	● No Democrat● Richard WomackINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+38	—
HD-91	● No Democrat● Bruce CozartINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+28	—
HD-92	● No Democrat● Dawn Creekmore	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+66	—
HD-93	● No Democrat● Mike HolcombINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+57	—
HD-94	● No Democrat● John Kyle Day	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+27	—
HD-95	● No Democrat● Howard BeatyINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+30	—
HD-96	● No Democrat● Sonia Eubanks BarkerINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+49	—
HD-97	● No Democrat● Jim Andrews	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+26	—
HD-98	● No Democrat● Wade AndrewsINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+13	—
HD-99	● No Democrat● Beth Baker	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+64	—
HD-100	● Calvin Thomason● Carol DalbyINC	1%99% 1%99%	R+22.1R+25.5	Solid RSolid R	R+32	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).