Wyoming · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Wyoming House of Representatives?

All 62 seats are on the ballot. 32 seats make a majority. 42 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto. November candidates are not yet compiled for 1 race; they are forecast for the seat's current party against a generic challenger.

1 of 62 races has no compiled candidate list yet. Those seats are forecast for their current party against a generic challenger, marked TBD below.

Republicans are very likely to control the Wyoming House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 6.580% range 6–7
Avg. R seats: 55.580% range 55–56
Now: 6 D · 56 R62 up this year

Republican supermajority now (56 of 62 seats; 42 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

6 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party56 R now

Republicans are very likely to control the Wyoming House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 6.180% range 5–7
Avg. R seats: 55.980% range 55–57
Now: 6 D · 56 R62 up this year

Republican supermajority now (56 of 62 seats; 42 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

6 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party56 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 62 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

No seat is projected to change parties. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

No seat is projected to change parties.

Solid D5

Likely D1

HD-14

Lean D0

Toss-up1

HD-11risk

Lean R0

Likely R0

Solid R55

Show 49 more

Solid D5

Likely D0

Lean D1

HD-14

Toss-up0

Lean R1

HD-11

Likely R1

HD-7

Solid R54

Show 48 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Dotted: no candidate list yet; forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

HD-11Britney TennantDan McIntoshFlip risk51%Rep.68%Rep.

Most likely to flip

HD-11Britney TennantDan McIntoshFlip risk49%to flip32%to flip HD-14Trey SherwoodEmily Study8%to flip35%to flip HD-7Gavin LobmeyerBob Nicholas3%to flip7%to flip HD-9Stephen LathamBoyd Wiggam1%to flip3%to flip HD-46Gary WilkenOcean Andrew1%to flip2%to flip HD-13Ken ChestekShane Swett1%to flip4%to flip HD-8Brenda LyttleSteve Johnson<1%to flip<1%to flip HD-42Jim VanDykeRob Geringer<1%to flip<1%to flip HD-17Rah ReinholzElizabeth Bingham<1%to flip<1%to flip HD-23Liz StorerShannon Brennan<1%to flip1%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

62 races, 42 without a contest between the major parties.

62 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
HD-1R vs R	● No Democrat● Troy Claycomb	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+85	—
HD-2	● No Democrat● J. D. WilliamsINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+74	—
HD-3R vs R	● No Democrat● Anne Ziegenhorn	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+87	—
HD-4	● No Democrat● Jeremy HaroldsonINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+63	—
HD-5R vs R	● No Democrat● Joe Speckner	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+56	—
HD-6R vs R	● No Democrat● Tomi StrockINC	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+77	—
HD-7	● Gavin Lobmeyer● Bob NicholasINC	3%97% 7%93%	R+14.7R+14.7	Solid RLikely R	R+19	—
HD-8	● Brenda Lyttle● Steve JohnsonINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+33.9R+35.8	Solid RSolid R	R+40	—
HD-9	● Stephen Latham● Boyd Wiggam	1%99% 3%97%	R+18.4R+18.5	Solid RSolid R	R+24	—
HD-10R vs R	● No Democrat● Justin FornstromINC	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+67	—
HD-11Flip risk	● Britney Tennant● Dan McIntosh	49%51% 32%68%	R+0.1R+4.4	Toss-upLean R	R+9	—
HD-12	● No Democrat● Clarence StyvarINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+38	—
HD-13	● Ken ChestekINC● Shane Swett	99%1% 96%4%	D+22.1D+18.6	Solid DSolid D	D+14	—
HD-14	● Trey SherwoodINC● Emily Study	92%8% 65%35%	D+11.1D+3.7	Likely DLean D	Even	—
HD-15	● No Democrat● Pam ThayerINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+49	—
HD-16	● Mike YinINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+50	—
HD-17	● Rah Reinholz● Elizabeth Bingham	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+35.7R+41.5	Solid RSolid R	R+48	—
HD-18R vs R	● No Democrat● Scott HeinerINC	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+72	—
HD-19R vs R	● No Democrat● Joe WebbINC	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+77	—
HD-20R vs R	● No Democrat● Albert Sommers	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+67	—
HD-21	● No Democrat● McKay EricksonINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+83	—
HD-22	● No Democrat● Andrew ByronINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+6	—
HD-23	● Liz StorerINC● Shannon Brennan	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+38.1D+30.6	Solid DSolid D	D+27	—
HD-24R vs R	● No Democrat● Nina WebberINC	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+49	—
HD-25R vs R	● No Democrat● John Wetzel	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+58	—
HD-26R vs R	● No Democrat● Dalton BanksINC	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+72	—
HD-27	● Theresa Livingston● Martha LawleyINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+55.6R+65.9	Solid RSolid R	R+70	—
HD-28R vs R	● No Democrat● Roland Luehne	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+67	—
HD-29R vs R	● No Democrat● James Temple	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+43	—
HD-30R vs R	● No Democrat● Mark Jennings	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+55	—
HD-31R vs R	● No Democrat● John BearINC	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+82	—
HD-32	● No Democrat● Ken CloustonINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+75	—
HD-33	● Ivan PoseyINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+1	—
HD-34	● No Democrat● Pepper OttmanINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+63	—
HD-35R vs R	● No Democrat● Tony LockeINC	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+48	—
HD-36	● Stewart McAdoo● Art WashutINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+35.8R+39.2	Solid RSolid R	R+44	—
HD-37	● Betty Erickson● Brian Costello	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+40.4R+47.7	Solid RSolid R	R+52	—
HD-38	● Catherine McQueen● Jayme LienINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+51.2R+60.2	Solid RSolid R	R+64	—
HD-39	● No Democrat● Cody WylieINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+53	—
HD-40	● Mark Jones● Marilyn ConnollyINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+51.4R+59.5	Solid RSolid R	R+63	—
HD-41R vs R	● No Democrat● Gary BrownINC	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+10	—
HD-42	● Jim VanDyke● Rob GeringerINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+34.2R+36.4	Solid RSolid R	R+40	—
HD-43R vs R	● No Democrat● Ann LucasINC	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+36	—
HD-44	● No Democrat● Lee FilerINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+18	—
HD-45	● Karlee ProvenzaINC● Ross Davenport	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+33.4D+30.7	Solid DSolid D	D+26	—
HD-46	● Gary Wilken● Ocean AndrewINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+21.1R+21.8	Solid RSolid R	R+26	—
HD-47	● No Democrat● Eamon O'Toole	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+69	—
HD-48R vs R	● No Democrat● Darin McCannINC	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+54	—
HD-49R vs R	● No Democrat● Robert WharffINC	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+55	—
HD-50R vs R	● No Democrat● David Hill	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+66	—
HD-51R vs R	● No Democrat● Laurie BrattenINC	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+52	—
HD-52R vs R	● No Democrat● Bill Fortner	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+87	—
HD-53R vs R	● No Democrat● Chris KnappINC	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+74	—
HD-54R vs R	● No Democrat● Lloyd Charles LarsenINC	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+15	—
HD-55	● No Democrat● Carl Manning	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+56	—
HD-56R vs R	● No Democrat● Elissa CampbellINC	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+24	—
HD-57	● Luc Colgrove● Julie JarvisINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+36.4R+40.0	Solid RSolid R	R+45	—
HD-58	● Keenan Morgan● Bill AllemandINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+52.9R+62.5	Solid RSolid R	R+67	—
HD-59	● Laurie Longtine● J. R. RigginsINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+40.1R+45.1	Solid RSolid R	R+50	—
HD-60R vs R	● No Democrat● Marlene BradyINC	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+54	—
HD-61R vs R	● No Democrat● Andrew Sever	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+26	—
HD-62TBD	● No candidate● No candidate	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+57.7R+68.6	Solid RSolid R	R+72	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.