North Dakota · 2026 forecast · Midwest region · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Dakota elects an attorney general, a secretary of state, its one member of the U.S. House, 24 of 47 members of the State Senate and 48 of 94 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.
On the November 3 ballot: 2 statewide offices · 1 U.S. House seat · 2 legislative chambers.
Trifecta
Republican trifecta now
Republicans hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.
After the election
The Republican trifecta most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance it is broken.
After the election
The Republican trifecta most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance it is broken.
Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.
Every race decided by the whole state. Statewide offices nationwide.
The environment North Dakota's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.
No governor, statewide or legislative race in North Dakota is polled yet, so its state races run at the national environment.
Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the North Dakota environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.
1 at-large seat. The national House forecast.
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ND-AL | ● Trygve Hammer● Julie FedorchakINC | R+27.5R+28.0 | R+37 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).
Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.
North Dakota State Senate
Avg. 7 D – 40 R seats · 24 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds
Avg. 7 D – 40 R seats · 24 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds
24 of 47 seats up; 23 holdovers.
Full forecastNo seat is projected to change parties. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
No seat is projected to change parties. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
North Dakota House of Representatives
Avg. 13 D – 81 R seats · 48 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds
Avg. 13 D – 81 R seats · 48 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds
48 of 94 seats up; 46 holdovers.
Full forecast2 seats projected to flip: 1 D→R, 1 R→D.
1 seat projected to flip: 1 D→R. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.
Senators and representatives serve four-year terms. Each election covers about half the districts (the odd-numbered ones in 2026), with the senator and both representatives elected together.
24 of 47 seats on the ballot; 23 holdovers (2 D, 21 R) serve until a later election.
Each of the 47 districts elects one senator and two representatives; voters pick up to two House candidates. Districts 4 and 9 are split into single-member subdistricts (A and B).