All-party U.S. House election
For 2026, all U.S. House candidates of every party share one ballot on November 3. A candidate who wins more than half the vote is elected; otherwise the top two meet on December 12, 2026.
Louisiana · 2026 forecast · Southeast region · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Louisiana in 2026
Louisiana elects a U.S. senator and all 6 members of the U.S. House on November 3, 2026. The State Senate is next elected in 2027. The House of Representatives is next elected in 2027.
On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · 6 U.S. House seats.
U.S. House districts · Louisiana
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Trifecta
Republican trifecta now
Republicans hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- <1%
- Divided
- <1%
- Rep. trifecta
- >99%
The Republican trifecta most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance it is broken.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- <1%
- Divided
- <1%
- Rep. trifecta
- >99%
The Republican trifecta most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance it is broken.
Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.
Statewide races
Every race decided by the whole state.
The Louisiana environment
The environment Louisiana's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
- Louisiana state offices vs. the nation
- +0.0± 4.5 (80% range) · 0 polled state races
- Louisiana state-office environment
- D+9.5In line with the nation
The polled state races behind it
No governor, statewide or legislative race in Louisiana is polled yet, so its state races run at the national environment.
Over time
Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Louisiana environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.
U.S. House
6 districts. The national House forecast.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it.
New Orleans
6 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA-1 | ● Lauren Jewett● Steve ScaliseINC | R+30.3R+31.4 | R+39 | — | ||
| LA-2 | ● Troy CarterINC● Peter Williams | D+54.9D+56.7 | D+50 | — | ||
| LA-3 | ● John Day● Clay HigginsINC | R+29.5R+29.5 | R+36 | — | ||
| LA-4 | ● Conrad Cable● Mike JohnsonINC | R+27.5R+25.7 | R+33 | — | ||
| LA-5 | ● Patricia Moore● Michael Echols | R+27.7R+26.4 | R+33 | — | ||
| LA-6R flipR flip | ● Pat Forbes● Blake Miguez | R+26.3R+24.1 | R+31 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.
How Louisiana votes
Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.
Closed party primaries for U.S. Senate
Starting in 2026, Senate nominees were chosen in closed party primaries (May 16, runoff June 27). The November Senate race is decided by plurality.
Legislature elected in odd years
Both chambers serve four-year terms elected in odd-numbered years; the next legislative election is in 2027.
Not on the ballot this year
These chambers hold regular elections in other years.
Louisiana State Senate
Next regular election: 2027 · 39 seats
10 D · 28 R
Louisiana House of Representatives
Next regular election: 2027 · 105 seats
32 D · 71 R