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What's the difference?

Vermont · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Vermont House of Representatives?

All 150 seats are on the ballot. 76 seats make a majority. 100 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Democrats are very likely to control the Vermont House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats
>99%
chance of control
Republicans
<1%
Avg. D seats
119.680% range 113–126
Avg. R seats
30.480% range 24–37
Now
90 D · 57 R · 3 other150 up this year

Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (100+ seats): >99%

90 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party57 R now

Democrats are very likely to control the Vermont House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats
>99%
chance of control
Republicans
<1%
Avg. D seats
120.380% range 115–125
Avg. R seats
29.780% range 25–35
Now
90 D · 57 R · 3 other150 up this year

Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (100+ seats): >99%

90 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party57 R now

76 for control
76 for control
  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R

Race ratings

All 109 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

20 seats projected to flip: 20 R→D. 4 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

22 seats projected to flip: 21 R→D, 1 D→R. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D71

Show 63 more

Likely D7

Lean D7

Toss-up4

Lean R1

Likely R0

Solid R17

Show 11 more

Independent or other, settled: Lamoille-1 State House, Windham-2 State House

Solid D72

Show 64 more

Likely D9

Lean D4

Toss-up2

Lean R3

Likely R0

Solid R17

Show 11 more

Independent or other, settled: Lamoille-1 State House, Windham-2 State House

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans, ■ another party). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Purple: an independent is favored.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Vermont

Burlington

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

Orange-1 State HouseGregory WilsonMichael TagliaviaFlip riskD flip53%Dem.70%Dem. Caledonia-3 State HouseDennis LaBountyBeth QuimbyFlip riskFlip risk2 seats55%Dem.54%Dem. Orange-Caledonia State HouseAiden OttermanTom OttermanFlip riskFlip risk56%Rep.55%Dem. Franklin-4 State HouseTamar BouchardMatthew WalkerFlip risk2 seats58%Rep.70%Rep. Caledonia-1 State HouseDavid TuckerDebra PowersD flipD flip67%Dem.79%Dem. Bennington-1 State HouseJonathan CooperCharles JewettR flip68%Dem.64%Rep. Washington-Orange State HouseMelissa BattahGina GalfettiD flipD flip2 seats69%Dem.79%Dem. Orleans-2 State HouseXavier StevensWoodman PageD flipD flip70%Dem.92%Dem. Rutland-Bennington State HouseJessica Van OortChris PritchardD flipD flip70%Dem.81%Dem. Addison-Rutland State HouseJonathan HescockJim CaseyD flipD flip77%Dem.92%Dem.

Most likely to flip

Franklin-8 State HouseZach SchefflerJack BrighamD flipD flip99%to flip>99%to flip Franklin-3 State HouseSuzanne KenyonJoe LuneauD flipD flip99%to flip>99%to flip Chittenden-25 State HouseJulia AndrewsBrenda SteadyD flipD flip99%to flip99%to flip Bennington-Rutland State HouseMike RiceSandy PinsonaultD flipD flip98%to flip99%to flip Franklin-1 State HouseJulie FilibertiBob StebbinsD flipD flip2 seats97%to flip84%to flip Caledonia-Washington State HouseEric BachGreg BurttD flipD flip97%to flip99%to flip Windsor-Windham State HouseWill HoserThomas CharltonD flipD flip97%to flip99%to flip Franklin-2 State HousePam McCarthyEileen "Lynn" DickinsonD flipD flip96%to flip87%to flip Caledonia-2 State HouseAudrey GrantMike SouthworthD flipD flip94%to flip98%to flip Rutland-8 State HouseGenevieve DuchesneauAlicia MalayD flipD flip91%to flip75%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Named multi-member districts

Districts are named after counties and towns ('Chittenden-Central'). Senate districts elect one to three senators and House districts one or two members; voters pick as many as there are seats.

Progressive Party

Vermont's Progressive Party holds legislative seats and caucuses with the Democrats, so its candidates are forecast on the Democratic side and its seats count toward that majority.

Fusion voting

Candidates can run with several party nominations, often Democratic and Progressive (listed as 'Democratic/Progressive'), and their votes count together. The forecast uses the first-listed party.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats >99%Republicans <1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats >99%Republicans <1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

76 for D control →D two-thirds →8090100110120
76 for D control →D two-thirds →8090100110120

Every race

109 races, 50 without a contest between the major parties.

109 races
DistrictCandidatesChance of winning (D · R)Avg. marginRatingLeanPolls
Addison-1 State HouseD vs D2 seats
● Robin ScheuINC● No RepublicanAlso: Mike Roy (D)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+61—
Addison-2 State House
● Tanya Byker● Annie Wilson
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+32.5D+35.7Solid DSolid DD+38—
Addison-3 State House2 seats
● John StroupINC● Rob NorthAlso: Ariel Bolles (D), Joe Baker (R)
99%1%
99%1%
D+20.9D+29.1Solid DSolid DD+31—
Addison-4 State House2 seats
● Karen LuedersINC● Linn DikeAlso: Jeanne Albert (D), Chanin Hill (R)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+37.4D+33.7Solid DSolid DD+36—
Addison-5 State House
● Jubilee McGillINC● Del Thompson
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+34.4D+38.5Solid DSolid DD+33—
Addison-Rutland State HouseD flipD flip
● Jonathan Hescock● Jim CaseyINC
77%23%
92%8%
D+6.1D+14.2Lean DLikely DD+15—
Bennington-1 State HouseR flip
● Jonathan CooperINC● Charles Jewett
68%32%
36%64%
D+3.5R+3.3Lean DLean RR+6—
Bennington-2 State House2 seats
● Timothy Corcoran IIINC● Anthony CookAlso: Will Greer (D)
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+28.5D+25.9Solid DSolid DD+24—
Bennington-3 State House
● David DurfeeINC● Victor Harwood Jr.
>99%<1%
98%2%
D+24.9D+21.2Solid DSolid DD+22—
Bennington-4 State House2 seats
● Rob HunterINC● Al ClaytonAlso: Thomas West (D), Michael Fernandez (I)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+41.1D+33.1Solid DSolid DD+36—
Bennington-5 State House2 seats
● Michael NigroINC● Mary MorrisseyAlso: Tom Blakely (D)
>99%<1%
98%2%
D+22.7D+21.6Solid DSolid DD+20—
Bennington-Rutland State HouseD flipD flip
● Mike Rice● Sandy PinsonaultINC
98%2%
99%1%
D+20.3D+26.8Solid DSolid DD+28—
Caledonia-1 State HouseD flipD flip
● David Tucker● Debra PowersINC
67%33%
79%21%
D+3.4D+7.8Lean DLean DD+8—
Caledonia-2 State HouseD flipD flip
● Audrey Grant● Mike SouthworthINC
94%6%
98%2%
D+13.4D+22.1Likely DSolid DD+22—
Caledonia-3 State HouseFlip riskFlip risk2 seats
● Dennis LaBounty● Beth QuimbyINCAlso: Erik LaVallee (R), Bill Coleman (PRG)
55%45%
54%46%
D+0.8D+1.0Toss-upToss-upR+1—
Caledonia-Essex State House2 seats
● Amanda CochraneINC● Deborah DolginAlso: Steve Dolgin (R), Heather Young (D), Brandolyn Bradley (I)
93%7%
96%4%
D+12.0D+17.5Likely DSolid DD+17—
Caledonia-Washington State HouseD flipD flip
● Eric Bach● Greg BurttINC
97%3%
99%1%
D+16.5D+25.8Solid DSolid DD+26—
Chittenden-1 State House
● Jana BrownINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+60—
Chittenden-2 State HouseD vs D2 seats
● Erin BradyINC● No RepublicanAlso: Angela Arsenault (D)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+50—
Chittenden-3 State HouseD vs D2 seats
● Trevor SquirrellINC● No RepublicanAlso: Edye Graning (D)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+51—
Chittenden-4 State House
● Kelsey Pasteris● No RepublicanAlso: John Kingston (I)
No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot—Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)D+52—
Chittenden-5 State House
● Chea EvansINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+63—
Chittenden-6 State House
● Kate LalleyINC● Deb Mayfield
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+61.7D+70.7Solid DSolid DD+67—
Chittenden-7 State House
● Shawn SweeneyINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+58—
Chittenden-8 State House
● Bridget BurkhardtINC● Mitchel Cypes
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+58.2D+60.9Solid DSolid DD+58—
Chittenden-9 State House
● Emilie KrasnowINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+63—
Chittenden-10 State House
● Kate NugentINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+62—
Chittenden-11 State House
● Brian MinierINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+64—
Chittenden-12 State House
● Martin LaLondeINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+65—
Chittenden-13 State HouseD vs D2 seats
● Bram KleppnerINC● No RepublicanAlso: Karen Paul (D)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+79—
Chittenden-14 State House2 seats
● Adam Franz● Aaliyah DavilaAlso: Elizabeth Allen-Pennebaker (D)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+74.8D+87.3Solid DSolid DD+83—
Chittenden-15 State HouseD vs D2 seats
● Brian CinaINC● No RepublicanAlso: Ben Bosley (D), Troy Headrick (I)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+84—
Chittenden-16 State HouseD vs D2 seats
● Jeffrey Peterson● No RepublicanAlso: Trang Do (PRG), Christopher Haessly (I)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+82—
Chittenden-17 State House
● Abbey DukeINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+77—
Chittenden-18 State HouseD vs D2 seats
● Carol OdeINC● No RepublicanAlso: Ali Dieng (D), Dave Hartnett (I)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+73—
Chittenden-19 State House2 seats
● Wendy CritchlowINC● Alex ThibaultAlso: Sarita Austin (D), Spencer Sherman (R)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+36.9D+40.5Solid DSolid DD+38—
Chittenden-20 State House2 seats
● Doug BishopINC● Doug WoodAlso: Gayle Pezzo (D), Bill Bezio (R)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+38.7D+41.0Solid DSolid DD+39—
Chittenden-21 State HouseD vs D2 seats
● Daisy BerbecoINC● No RepublicanAlso: Matt Gile (PRG)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+67—
Chittenden-22 State House2 seats
● Lori HoughtonINC● Brent BoergerAlso: Karen Dolan (D), Seth Manley (R)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+52.0D+52.1Solid DSolid DD+48—
Chittenden-23 State House2 seats
● Leonora DodgeINC● Lynn SmithAlso: Rey Garofano (D), Pearl Beckage (R), Erik Post (D)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+40.1D+48.1Solid DSolid DD+43—
Chittenden-24 State House
● Alyssa BlackINC● Stephanie Mack
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+40.4D+42.6Solid DSolid DD+41—
Chittenden-25 State HouseD flipD flip
● Julia Andrews● Brenda SteadyINC
99%1%
99%1%
D+20.0D+27.5Solid DSolid DD+25—
Chittenden-Franklin State HouseD flipD flip2 seats
● Natalie Cashen● Anthony "Tony" MicklusINCAlso: Kumulia Long (R), Henry Bonges III (D)
89%11%
92%8%
D+9.2D+14.0Likely DLikely DD+10—
Essex-Caledonia State House
● No Democrat● John Kascenska IIINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+1—
Essex-Orleans State House
● No Democrat● David JacobsAlso: John "Woton" Lally (OTH)
No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot—Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)R+16—
Franklin-1 State HouseD flipD flip2 seats
● Julie Filiberti● Bob StebbinsAlso: Keith Billado (R), Caroline Bright (D)
97%3%
84%16%
D+16.0D+9.6Solid DLikely DD+9—
Franklin-2 State HouseD flipD flip
● Pam McCarthy● Eileen "Lynn" DickinsonINC
96%4%
87%13%
D+13.4D+10.7Solid DLikely DD+10—
Franklin-3 State HouseD flipD flip
● Suzanne Kenyon● Joe LuneauINC
99%1%
>99%<1%
D+22.4D+35.4Solid DSolid DD+33—
Franklin-4 State HouseFlip risk2 seats
● Tamar Bouchard● Matthew WalkerINCAlso: Tom Oliver Jr. (R), Carmela Mayette (D)
42%58%
30%70%
R+1.4R+4.8Toss-upLean RR+8—
Franklin-5 State HouseR vs R2 seats
● No Democrat● Wayne LarocheINCAlso: Lisa Hango (R)
Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November—Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)R+19—
Franklin-6 State House
● No Democrat● James GregoireINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RD+14—
Franklin-7 State House
● No Democrat● Allen "Penny" DemarINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RD+3—
Franklin-8 State HouseD flipD flip
● Zach Scheffler● Jack BrighamINC
99%1%
>99%<1%
D+22.6D+30.0Solid DSolid DD+25—
Grand Isle-Chittenden State HouseD flipD flip2 seats
● Dave Skinner● Michael MorganINCAlso: Josie Henry (R), Sylvia Jensen (D)
90%10%
96%4%
D+10.5D+17.3Likely DSolid DD+18—
Lamoille-1 State House
● Jed LipskyINC● No Republican
No major-party candidateNo major-party candidate—UncontestedUncontestedD+62—
Lamoille-2 State House2 seats
● Daniel NoyesINC● Richard BaileyAlso: Jim Lipinski (D), Malcolm Teale (R)
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+23.1D+24.3Solid DSolid DD+25—
Lamoille-3 State House
● Deb Nevil● Rebecca PitreAlso: Adam Howard (I)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+28.8D+31.4Solid DSolid DD+34—
Lamoille-Washington State House2 seats
● David YacovoneINC● Susanna BurnhamAlso: Saudia LaMont (D), Nick Lopez (R), Jason Thompson (R)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+42.5D+42.1Solid DSolid DD+45—
Orange-1 State HouseFlip riskD flip
● Gregory Wilson● Michael TagliaviaINC
53%47%
70%30%
D+0.5D+5.2Toss-upLean DD+3—
Orange-2 State House
● Lance Mills● Nicholas DiLorenzo
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+23.1D+25.7Solid DSolid DD+26—
Orange-3 State House
● No Democrat● Fran Covey
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+2—
Orange-Caledonia State HouseFlip riskFlip risk
● Aiden Otterman● Tom OttermanAlso: Susan Culp (I)
44%56%
55%45%
R+1.2D+1.2Toss-upToss-upEven—
Orange-Washington-Addison State House2 seats
● Larry SatcowitzINC● Stephen WebsterAlso: Emery Mattheis (PRG), Charles Russell (R), Lance Ryan (R)
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+30.7D+29.1Solid DSolid DD+31—
Orleans-1 State House
● No Democrat● Richard NelsonINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+10—
Orleans-2 State HouseD flipD flip
● Xavier Stevens● Woodman PageINC
70%30%
92%8%
D+4.2D+14.2Lean DLikely DD+13—
Orleans-3 State House
● No Democrat● Ken WellsINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RD+2—
Orleans-4 State House
● Leanne HarpleINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+31—
Orleans-Lamoille State HouseR vs R2 seats
● No Democrat● Mark HigleyINCAlso: Praneet Menon (R)
Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November—Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)R+13—
Rutland-1 State House
● No Democrat● Patricia McCoyINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+2—
Rutland-2 State House2 seats
● Marsha Cassel● Tom BurdittINCAlso: Dave Bosch (R)
23%77%
38%62%
R+5.5R+2.9Lean RLean RR+6—
Rutland-3 State House
● No Democrat● Chris BrownINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+2—
Rutland-4 State House
● No Democrat● Christopher HowlandINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RD+17—
Rutland-5 State House
● No Democrat● Eric MaguireINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RD+21—
Rutland-6 State House
● Chris Siliski● Cindy Laskevich
98%2%
97%3%
D+16.7D+20.3Solid DSolid DD+16—
Rutland-7 State House
● No Democrat● Chris KeyserINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RD+16—
Rutland-8 State HouseD flipD flip
● Genevieve Duchesneau● Alicia MalayINC
91%9%
75%25%
D+9.6D+6.3Likely DLean DD+4—
Rutland-9 State HouseD flipD flip
● Jeff Haylon● Aida Nielsen
90%10%
88%12%
D+9.7D+11.2Likely DLikely DD+10—
Rutland-10 State HouseR vs R
● No Democrat● Bill CanfieldINCAlso: William P. Canfield (R)
Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November—Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)R+10—
Rutland-11 State House
● No Democrat● Valorie TaylorINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RD+22—
Rutland-Bennington State HouseD flipD flip
● Jessica Van Oort● Chris PritchardINC
70%30%
81%19%
D+4.2D+8.5Lean DLikely DD+8—
Rutland-Windsor State HouseD flipD flip
● Phoebe Tucker● Kevin WinterINC
79%21%
90%10%
D+6.6D+12.7Lean DLikely DD+12—
Washington-1 State HouseR vs R2 seats
● No Democrat● Kenneth GoslantINCAlso: Lucas Herring (R)
Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November—Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)D+24—
Washington-2 State HouseD vs D2 seats
● Candice WhiteINC● No RepublicanAlso: Dara Torre (D)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+63—
Washington-3 State House2 seats
● Edward "Teddy" WaszazakINC● Michael BoutinAlso: Sonya Spaulding (D), John G. Santorello (R)
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+28.3D+29.3Solid DSolid DD+27—
Washington-4 State HouseD vs D2 seats
● Kate McCannINC● No RepublicanAlso: Jared Duval (D)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+80—
Washington-5 State House
● Ela ChapinINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+55—
Washington-6 State House
● Marc MihalyINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+45—
Washington-Chittenden State HouseD vs D2 seats
● Theresa A.M. WoodINC● No RepublicanAlso: Katarina Lisaius (D)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+58—
Washington-Orange State HouseD flipD flip2 seats
● Melissa Battah● Gina GalfettiINCAlso: David Soucy (R), Emily Wheeler-Reynolds (D)
69%31%
79%21%
D+3.8D+7.6Lean DLean DD+6—
Windham-1 State House
● Zon EastesINC● Nancy Gassett
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+28.3D+26.0Solid DSolid DD+27—
Windham-2 State House
● Laura SibiliaINC● No Republican
No major-party candidateNo major-party candidate—UncontestedUncontestedD+33—
Windham-3 State House2 seats
● Michelle Bos-LunINC● Nicole CotaAlso: Chris Lundberg (D), Ryan Coyne (R)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+41.6D+39.1Solid DSolid DD+41—
Windham-4 State House
● Mike MrowickiINC● Lynne WilkinsAlso: Ian G. Diamondstone (PF)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+56.7D+57.8Solid DSolid DD+61—
Windham-5 State House
● Emily LongINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+54—
Windham-6 State House
● Emily Carris-DuncanINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+21—
Windham-7 State House
● Emilie KornheiserINC● Aaron Smith
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+56.3D+59.5Solid DSolid DD+62—
Windham-8 State House
● Daniel Quipp● William "Bill" Harvey
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+63.8D+67.5Solid DSolid DD+68—
Windham-9 State House
● Ian GoodnowINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+67—
Windham-Windsor-Bennington State House
● Chris MorrowINC● E. Coleman
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+35.2D+32.6Solid DSolid DD+35—
Windsor-1 State HouseD vs D2 seats
● John Tansey● No RepublicanAlso: Dylan Morse (D), Rich Thomas (I)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+40—
Windsor-2 State HouseD flipD flip
● Mark Yuengling● VL CoffinINC
82%18%
89%11%
D+7.2D+12.1Likely DLikely DD+12—
Windsor-3 State House2 seats
● Kristi MorrisINC● Randy GrayAlso: Alice Emmons (D), Judith Stern (R)
99%1%
96%4%
D+18.5D+17.3Solid DSolid DD+15—
Windsor-4 State House
● Michael HoytINC● No RepublicanAlso: Kyle Hansen (I), Justin Schoville (PF)
No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot—Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)D+44—
Windsor-5 State House
● Charlie KimbellINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+54—
Windsor-6 State HouseD vs D2 seats
● Alanna Ojibway● No RepublicanAlso: Jimmy Coleman (D)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+46—
Windsor-Addison State House
● Kirk WhiteINC● Michael J. White
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+42.9D+37.0Solid DSolid DD+39—
Windsor-Orange-1 State House
● John O'BrienINC● Bruce Post
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+27.4D+27.5Solid DSolid DD+29—
Windsor-Orange-2 State HouseD vs D2 seats
● Dee Gish● No RepublicanAlso: Lauren Rhim (D)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+65—
Windsor-Windham State HouseD flipD flip
● Will Hoser● Thomas CharltonINC
97%3%
99%1%
D+16.3D+24.1Solid DSolid DD+24—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. Purple marks an independent the model treats as the main challenger. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.