Maine · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Who will control the Maine House of Representatives?
All 151 seats are on the ballot. 76 seats make a majority. 101 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.
Democrats are clearly favored to control the Maine House of Representatives (93%).
- Avg. D seats
- 85.380% range 77–95
- Avg. R seats
- 65.780% range 56–74
- Now
- 75 D · 73 R · 5 other151 up this year
Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (101+ seats): 2%
75 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party73 R now
Democrats are clearly favored to control the Maine House of Representatives (92%).
- Avg. D seats
- 86.180% range 76–96
- Avg. R seats
- 64.980% range 55–75
- Now
- 75 D · 73 R · 5 other151 up this year
Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (101+ seats): 4%
75 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party73 R now
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Race ratings
All 151 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.
6 seats projected to flip: 5 R→D, 1 Ind.→D. 5 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
7 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D, 1 Ind.→D. 11 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Solid D69
Show 63 more
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Solid D57
Show 51 more
Likely D17
Toss-up11
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans, ■ another party). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.
The map
Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.
Maine
Portland
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Seats to watch
The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.
Closest races
Most likely to flip
How the odds have moved
Chance of winning control, by forecast date.
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Every outcome we simulated
Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.
Every race
151 races, 37 without a contest between the major parties.
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HD-1 | ● Dana M Appleby● Austin Theriault | R+16.9R+14.4 | R+19 | — | ||
| HD-2 | ● Roland Daniel Martin● Roger C AlbertINC | R+3.0R+3.3 | R+8 | — | ||
| HD-3 | ● David H McCrea● Susan Bernard | R+12.7R+19.0 | R+23 | — | ||
| HD-4 | ● No Democrat● Timothy Conrad GuerretteINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+22 | — | |
| HD-5 | ● Bruce Archer● Douglas C Carlisle Jr. | R+4.6R+5.7 | R+10 | — | ||
| HD-6 | ● Melanie Tompkins● Donald James ArdellINC | R+33.1R+37.9 | R+42 | — | ||
| HD-7 | ● Matthew J Rush● Jantzen Stephen Craine | R+28.5R+30.3 | R+35 | — | ||
| HD-8 | ● No Democrat● Tracy Lynn QuintINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+52 | — | |
| HD-9 | ● Nicole N Richards● Arthur K MingoINC | R+9.5R+6.3 | R+9 | — | ||
| HD-10 | ● Genevieve M Lemire● William R TuellINC | R+25.5R+23.1 | R+26 | — | ||
| HD-11 | ● Keith A Newman● Tiffany StroutINC | R+24.6R+23.3 | R+26 | — | ||
| HD-12 | ● No Democrat● Thomas Arthur Hart Jr. | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+11 | — | |
| HD-13Flip risk | ● Michael Hobart Cunningham II● Russell P WhiteINC | R+3.2R+1.2 | R+3 | — | ||
| HD-14 | ● Gary R FriedmannINC● Jean M Donovan | D+42.3D+42.8 | D+42 | — | ||
| HD-15 | ● Holly R EatonINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+23 | — | |
| HD-16 | ● Nina Azella MillikenINC● Eric M White | D+33.0D+26.7 | D+26 | — | ||
| HD-17Flip riskFlip risk | ● Ronald B Russell● Steven Matthew BishopINC | D+1.4D+1.6 | Even | — | ||
| HD-18 | ● Jonathan C Goble● Mathew David McIntyreINC | R+27.5R+23.9 | R+27 | — | ||
| HD-19 | ● David Ulrich● Richard H Campbell | R+18.2R+14.7 | R+17 | — | ||
| HD-20Flip risk | ● Dani O'HalloranINC● Patrick A Jude | D+7.5D+1.3 | R+1 | — | ||
| HD-21 | ● Ambureen RanaINC● Frank Joseph Casella | D+24.9D+23.3 | D+21 | — | ||
| HD-22 | ● Laura D SupicaINC● Colleen T O'Neal | D+23.9D+23.5 | D+21 | — | ||
| HD-23 | ● Victoria P Kornfield● Brian A Ames | D+21.3D+22.6 | D+21 | — | ||
| HD-24 | ● Sean F FairclothINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+32 | — | |
| HD-25 | ● Laurie OsherINC● Anthony M Weaver | D+44.2D+48.3 | D+44 | — | ||
| HD-26 | ● James F DillINC● Edward L Paradis | D+14.6D+11.5 | D+9 | — | ||
| HD-27 | ● Devan C Arnold● David Giles | R+27.9R+29.4 | R+34 | — | ||
| HD-28 | ● Gordon P Street● Irene A GiffordINC | R+32.5R+34.0 | R+38 | — | ||
| HD-29 | ● Nancy Marie McDowell● Nancy J TheriaultINC | R+21.7R+24.1 | R+28 | — | ||
| HD-30 | ● John J Contreni Jr.● James L WhiteINC | R+27.2R+27.6 | R+31 | — | ||
| HD-31 | ● Eric J Boothroyd● Andrew R Torbett | R+21.3R+25.0 | R+28 | — | ||
| HD-32 | ● No Democrat● Shawn L Lancaster | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+39 | — | |
| HD-33 | ● Michael A Brayson● Kenneth Wade FredetteINC | R+33.8R+33.4 | R+37 | — | ||
| HD-34 | ● James P McClymer● Stacey K Guerin | R+29.0R+26.3 | R+30 | — | ||
| HD-35 | ● Debora S Farnham● James E ThorneINC | R+27.9R+25.3 | R+28 | — | ||
| HD-36Flip risk | ● Clifton Guy Foster III● Kimberly M HagganINC | R+6.4R+0.5 | R+2 | — | ||
| HD-37 | ● Alan Lee Orcutt● Reagan L PaulINC | R+5.6R+3.9 | R+6 | — | ||
| HD-38 | ● Kayla M.T. Miller● Benjamin C HymesINC | R+8.6R+8.8 | R+12 | — | ||
| HD-39 | ● Madison Crissey Cook● Michael J Nicholson | D+32.5D+32.9 | D+32 | — | ||
| HD-40 | ● D. Michael Ray● Joseph M McLaughlin | D+13.6D+12.7 | D+11 | — | ||
| HD-41 | ● Joshua D Gerritsen● Cory Christopher Raymond | D+48.3D+52.4 | D+51 | — | ||
| HD-42 | ● Valli D GeigerINC● Melissa Joy Byer | D+31.3D+30.7 | D+29 | — | ||
| HD-43 | ● Rhiannon Corey Hampson● Christopher Paul Austin | D+15.0D+14.7 | D+13 | — | ||
| HD-44 | ● No Democrat● Ray A Thombs Jr. | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+5 | — | |
| HD-45 | ● No Democrat● Rebecca M Stephens | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+5 | — | |
| HD-46 | ● Jennifer F Mayher● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+28 | — | |
| HD-47Flip risk | ● Wayne K FarrinINC● Chester B Grover III | D+5.5R+0.3 | R+2 | — | ||
| HD-48 | ● Charlotte Nutt● Erik D Hobson | D+22.7D+21.9 | D+20 | — | ||
| HD-49 | ● Trent E Vellella● Suzanne R Andresen | D+13.9D+11.9 | D+10 | — | ||
| HD-50 | ● David A SinclairINC● Jedediah James Rice II | D+38.5D+38.8 | D+38 | — | ||
| HD-51 | ● Rafael MaciasINC● Annalyse O Sarvinas | D+28.4D+28.5 | D+27 | — | ||
| HD-52Flip risk | ● Sally Jeane ClucheyINC● David W Guilmette | D+2.6R+1.4 | R+3 | — | ||
| HD-53 | ● Richard Marc Goldman● Michael H LemelinINC | R+12.3R+13.4 | R+17 | — | ||
| HD-54 | ● Karen L MontellINC● Michelle M Tucker | D+17.1D+13.7 | D+11 | — | ||
| HD-55 | ● Maureen Aucoin● Charles L Hippler IV | D+10.8D+9.4 | D+8 | — | ||
| HD-56 | ● Robin L Upton-Sukeforth● Randall Adam GreenwoodINC | R+22.3R+18.8 | R+22 | — | ||
| HD-57 | ● Tavis Rock HasenfusINC● David R Potvin | D+13.2D+6.9 | D+5 | — | ||
| HD-58 | ● No Democrat● Dexter E. Bridges Jr. | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+8 | — | |
| HD-59 | ● Katrina Couch Ray-Saulis● John Reny | D+11.9D+13.9 | D+10 | — | ||
| HD-60 | ● William R Bridgeo● Wyatt Albert Beaulieu | D+16.3D+13.8 | D+11 | — | ||
| HD-61 | ● Robin G Crawley● Alicia Carol CollinsINC | R+14.4R+14.4 | R+18 | — | ||
| HD-62 | ● Pamela Jo Swift● Katrina J SmithINC | R+18.2R+18.8 | R+22 | — | ||
| HD-63 | ● Taylor Marie West● Paul R FlynnINC | R+9.4R+8.2 | R+12 | — | ||
| HD-64 | ● Flavia M DebritoINC● Shawn M Packard | D+30.7D+29.7 | D+27 | — | ||
| HD-65 | ● Cassie Lynn JuliaINC● Scott Walter Strom | D+28.9D+31.3 | D+28 | — | ||
| HD-66 | ● No Democrat● Michael D Perkins | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+11 | — | |
| HD-67 | ● Matthew C Townsend● Shawn M Dixon | R+10.9R+16.3 | R+20 | — | ||
| HD-68 | ● No Democrat● Amanda Noelle CollamoreINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+27 | — | |
| HD-69 | ● Jessica B Blanchard● Dean A CrayINC | R+33.8R+36.1 | R+40 | — | ||
| HD-70 | ● Joseph R Almand● Jennifer Lynn PoirierINC | R+11.2R+9.5 | R+12 | — | ||
| HD-71 | ● Allison Mary Perkins● John E Ducharme IIIINC | R+20.8R+22.4 | R+25 | — | ||
| HD-72 | ● Cynthia J Soma-Hernandez● Douglas Andrew Thomas | R+33.7R+31.8 | R+36 | — | ||
| HD-73 | ● Daniel J Simonds● Michael SoboleskiINC | R+17.1R+11.2 | R+14 | — | ||
| HD-74 | ● Marc Edwards● Russell J Black | R+17.2R+14.2 | R+17 | — | ||
| HD-75 | ● H. Scott Landry● Randall D Gauvin | D+7.4D+9.5 | D+8 | — | ||
| HD-76 | ● Trevor Alex Doiron● Sheila Ann LymanINC | R+13.9R+12.3 | R+16 | — | ||
| HD-77 | ● Arlie E Hetrick Jr.● Tammy L Schmersal-BurgessINC | R+27.2R+23.6 | R+27 | — | ||
| HD-78Flip risk | ● Woodleigh H Hughes● Rachel A HendersonINC | R+4.7R+1.8 | R+5 | — | ||
| HD-79 | ● Brianna Fern Lueck● Michael J LanceINC | R+19.5R+15.2 | R+18 | — | ||
| HD-80 | ● No Democrat● Ernest M Fitts IV | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+24 | — | |
| HD-81Flip riskFlip risk | ● Christopher A Easton● Peter C WoodINC | D+0.5D+1.8 | R+1 | — | ||
| HD-82Flip risk | ● Christopher Alfred Lewey● Caleb J Ness | R+3.8R+0.8 | R+3 | — | ||
| HD-83Flip riskD flip | ● Timothy J Becker● Marygrace Caroline CiminoINC | D+1.8D+2.6 | Even | — | ||
| HD-84 | ● Cassandra Anne Dove● Mark WalkerINC | R+15.5R+14.6 | R+18 | — | ||
| HD-85 | ● Paul Harris Welch● Adrienne Paul | R+6.1R+3.4 | R+6 | — | ||
| HD-86Flip riskFlip risk | ● Abigail N Geer● Rolf A Olsen Jr.INC | D+0.2D+0.8 | R+2 | — | ||
| HD-87 | ● No Democrat● David Wayne Boyer Jr.INCAlso: John Baldwin (G) | No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot | — | R+16 | — | |
| HD-88D flipD flip | ● Dana N Staples● Quentin James ChapmanINC | D+5.0D+9.1 | D+6 | — | ||
| HD-89 | ● Adam R LeeINC● James D Berube | D+16.7D+12.9 | D+8 | — | ||
| HD-90D flipD flip | ● Pamela B Hart● James W Sorcek | D+5.1D+3.9 | D+1 | — | ||
| HD-91 | ● Emily J Dingman● Jeffrey L Timberlake | R+20.5R+14.8 | R+19 | — | ||
| HD-92 | ● No Democrat● Stephen J WoodINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+29 | — | |
| HD-93 | ● Julia McCabeINC● Chad E Syphers | D+25.4D+18.1 | D+13 | — | ||
| HD-94 | ● Scott A HarrimanINC● Janet Inger Beaudoin | D+14.3D+14.4 | D+9 | — | ||
| HD-95 | ● Kiernan Innes Majerus-Collins● Bret M Martel | D+24.3D+22.9 | D+18 | — | ||
| HD-96 | ● Luke Dylan Jensen● Kerryl Lee Clement | D+7.7D+9.8 | D+6 | — | ||
| HD-97 | ● Thomas R Watson● Dale John Crafts | R+11.5R+7.6 | R+12 | — | ||
| HD-98 | ● Kilton McCarthy WebbINC● William J St. Michel | D+13.6D+10.8 | D+8 | — | ||
| HD-99 | ● Cheryl A GolekINC● Braeden D Webber | D+34.6D+35.6 | D+35 | — | ||
| HD-100 | ● Daniel Joseph AnkelesINC● Brett Y Barrett | D+48.5D+49.0 | D+46 | — | ||
| HD-101 | ● Poppy T ArfordINC● Ravi Jackson | D+46.7D+48.1 | D+46 | — | ||
| HD-102 | ● Maura H Pillsbury● Henry Lloyd Lawrence III | D+41.8D+44.9 | D+44 | — | ||
| HD-103 | ● Karin Orenstein● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+55 | — | |
| HD-104 | ● No Democrat● R. Melissa Winslow | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+2 | — | |
| HD-105 | ● Anne Palmer GrahamINC● Susan E Fuller | D+20.2D+17.6 | D+16 | — | ||
| HD-106D flipD flip | ● Bradley M Youngs● Barbara BagshawINC | D+3.1D+6.9 | D+4 | — | ||
| HD-107D flipD flip | ● Joseph A Campbell● Mark C CooperINC | D+5.5D+6.9 | D+4 | — | ||
| HD-108 | ● Parnell W TerryINC● Kelly L Dearborn | D+21.8D+22.0 | D+20 | — | ||
| HD-109 | ● Seven R Siegel● Diana Kushnar | D+21.7D+23.4 | D+21 | — | ||
| HD-110 | ● Christina R.C. MitchellINC● Jason Lewis Copp | D+43.3D+47.3 | D+43 | — | ||
| HD-111 | ● Amy D KuhnINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+42 | — | |
| HD-112D flipD flip | ● Sean M Mahoney● Lauren Chelsea Jones | D+48.9D+55.4 | D+52 | — | ||
| HD-113 | ● Grayson Benjamin LooknerINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+65 | — | |
| HD-114 | ● April D Fournier● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+60 | — | |
| HD-115 | ● Andrew J Zarro● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+66 | — | |
| HD-116 | ● Samuel Lewis ZagerINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+66 | — | |
| HD-117 | ● Matthew MoonenINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+80 | — | |
| HD-118 | ● Yusuf M YusufINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+79 | — | |
| HD-119 | ● Michael P Dixon● Jacob Murray Wakem | D+66.6D+74.6 | D+70 | — | ||
| HD-120 | ● Jason J Shedlock● Michael J Dougherty | D+52.9D+56.2 | D+52 | — | ||
| HD-121 | ● Robert Cameron● Meagan J Smith | D+51.2D+53.9 | D+51 | — | ||
| HD-122 | ● Matthew D BeckINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+55 | — | |
| HD-123 | ● Michelle N BoyerINC● Annie Christy | D+56.0D+62.1 | D+58 | — | ||
| HD-124 | ● Eric James Nathanson● Scott W Doherty | D+32.7D+35.0 | D+31 | — | ||
| HD-125 | ● Kelly Maureen Noonan MurphyINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+31 | — | |
| HD-126 | ● Andrew Gattine● Ethan E Mongue | D+35.2D+31.9 | D+30 | — | ||
| HD-127 | ● Morgan J RiellyINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+34 | — | |
| HD-128 | ● Suzanne M SalisburyINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+34 | — | |
| HD-129 | ● Marshall F ArcherINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+27 | — | |
| HD-130 | ● Lynn Holland CopelandINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+27 | — | |
| HD-131 | ● Robert James Kelly● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+20 | — | |
| HD-132 | ● Ryan FecteauINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+29 | — | |
| HD-133 | ● Marc G Malon IIINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+29 | — | |
| HD-134 | ● Traci GereINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+30 | — | |
| HD-135 | ● Lisa Joy Pratt● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+34 | — | |
| HD-136 | ● Michelle K Conners● John EderINC | R+6.0R+6.3 | R+9 | — | ||
| HD-137 | ● Charles Tilburg● Nathan M CarlowINC | R+5.5R+4.8 | R+8 | — | ||
| HD-138 | ● Oliver D McAvoy● Jonathan Lee Kinney | R+12.6R+11.9 | R+15 | — | ||
| HD-139 | ● Dean P Lepage● Jamie K Newton | R+10.9R+10.8 | R+14 | — | ||
| HD-140 | ● Kirstan L Watson● Wayne R ParryINC | R+5.8R+3.7 | R+7 | — | ||
| HD-141 | ● Rebecca L Flood Andrews● Marc A Boisse | R+3.3R+7.4 | R+11 | — | ||
| HD-142 | ● Ayn M Hanselmann● Gordon E Frohloff | D+8.7D+9.5 | D+6 | — | ||
| HD-143Flip riskFlip risk | ● John R Henkelman● Eric H Small | D+0.4D+1.4 | R+2 | — | ||
| HD-144 | ● No Democrat● Jeffrey Sean AdamsINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+28 | — | |
| HD-145D flipD flip | ● Kristin T Davis● Caleb J Chase | D+15.0D+15.2 | D+14 | — | ||
| HD-146 | ● Walter Gerard Runte Jr.● Bradley S Moulton | D+23.6D+27.1 | D+26 | — | ||
| HD-147 | ● Holly T SargentINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+29 | — | |
| HD-148 | ● Margaret A Wheeler● Thomas Arthur LavigneINC | R+6.6R+4.1 | R+7 | — | ||
| HD-149 | ● Mallory A Cook● Timothy R Towne | D+16.8D+15.7 | D+14 | — | ||
| HD-150 | ● Alexandros Orestis● Mark F Zimmer | D+22.4D+22.6 | D+21 | — | ||
| HD-151 | ● Kristi M MathiesonINC● Suzanne Johnson | D+43.0D+43.5 | D+43 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).