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What's the difference?

Indiana · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Indiana House of Representatives?

All 100 seats are on the ballot. 51 seats make a majority. 51 make the majority supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are very likely to control the Indiana House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
Avg. D seats
34.280% range 30–39
Avg. R seats
65.880% range 61–70
Now
30 D · 69 R · 1 other100 up this year

Republican supermajority now (69 of 100 seats; 51 needed for majority): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

30 D nowMarks: majority supermajority for each party69 R now

Republicans are very likely to control the Indiana House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
Avg. D seats
34.480% range 29–40
Avg. R seats
65.680% range 60–71
Now
30 D · 69 R · 1 other100 up this year

Republican supermajority now (69 of 100 seats; 51 needed for majority): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

30 D nowMarks: majority supermajority for each party69 R now

51 for control
51 for control
  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R

Race ratings

All 100 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

3 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D, 1 Ind.→R. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

4 seats projected to flip: 3 R→D, 1 Ind.→R. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D27

Show 21 more

Likely D3

Lean D2

Toss-up1

Lean R5

Likely R7

Solid R55

Show 49 more

Solid D24

Show 18 more

Likely D3

Lean D5

Toss-up2

Lean R7

Likely R9

Solid R50

Show 44 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans, ■ another party). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Indiana

Indianapolis

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

HD-62Amy Huffman OliverDave HallFlip riskD flip51%Dem.75%Dem. HD-24Racheal BleicherHunter SmithFlip risk60%Rep.56%Rep. HD-72Michele HenryDarrell NeeleyR flipR flip62%Rep.69%Rep. HD-5Alex WaitDale DeVon63%Rep.60%Rep. HD-4Ryan KominakisEdmond Soliday69%Rep.63%Rep. HD-39Lindsay GramlichDanny LopezD flipD flip69%Dem.73%Dem. HD-25Tiffany StonerBecky CashD flipD flip70%Dem.62%Dem. HD-88Stephanie Jo YocumChris Jeter75%Rep.70%Rep.

Most likely to flip

HD-25Tiffany StonerBecky CashD flipD flip70%to flip62%to flip HD-39Lindsay GramlichDanny LopezD flipD flip69%to flip73%to flip HD-62Amy Huffman OliverDave HallFlip riskD flip51%to flip75%to flip HD-24Racheal BleicherHunter SmithFlip risk40%to flip44%to flip HD-5Alex WaitDale DeVon37%to flip40%to flip HD-4Ryan KominakisEdmond Soliday31%to flip37%to flip HD-88Stephanie Jo YocumChris Jeter25%to flip30%to flip HD-36Kim TownsendKyle Pierce20%to flip26%to flip HD-37Lauren ColeTodd Huston10%to flip28%to flip HD-93Eva RosbergJulie McGuire10%to flip15%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Simple-majority veto override

A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats <1%Republicans >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats <1%Republicans >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

51 for D control →D majority →← R majority253035404550
51 for D control →D majority →← R majority253035404550

Every race

100 races, 33 without a contest between the major parties.

100 races
DistrictCandidatesChance of winning (D · R)Avg. marginRatingLeanPolls
HD-1
● Carolyn JacksonINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+29—
HD-2
● Earl Harris Jr.INC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+61—
HD-3
● Ragen HatcherINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+25—
HD-4
● Ryan Kominakis● Edmond SolidayINCAlso: Travis Gearhart (L)
31%69%
37%63%
R+3.6R+3.2Lean RLean RR+9—
HD-5
● Alex Wait● Dale DeVonINC
37%63%
40%60%
R+2.3R+2.4Lean RLean RR+9—
HD-6
● Maureen BauerINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+33—
HD-7
● Oliver Davis● Jake TeshkaINC
4%96%
13%87%
R+14.8R+10.4Solid RLikely RR+17—
HD-8
● Ryan DvorakINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+14—
HD-9
● Randy NovakINC● Chris Cleveland
97%3%
82%18%
D+14.1D+8.4Solid DLikely DD+3—
HD-10
● Charles MoseleyINC● Ted Uzelac
91%9%
61%39%
D+10.6D+2.5Likely DLean DR+4—
HD-11
● Tyler Bridges● Michael AylesworthINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+36.8R+40.2Solid RSolid RR+47—
HD-12
● Mike AndradeINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+5—
HD-13
● Brenna Geswein● Matt CommonsINCAlso: Ben Davis (SOC)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+33.1R+34.7Solid RSolid RR+41—
HD-14
● Vernon SmithINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+43—
HD-15
● Anthony Oberman● Hal SlagerINC
6%94%
10%90%
R+11.6R+12.1Likely RLikely RR+19—
HD-16
● Ashley Hammac● Kendell CulpINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+39.4R+43.7Solid RSolid RR+50—
HD-17
● Mary Gibson● Jack JordanINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+35.0R+39.7Solid RSolid RR+46—
HD-18
● No Democrat● David AbbottINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+55—
HD-19
● Nick Neal● Julie OlthoffINC
3%97%
10%90%
R+16.2R+12.3Solid RLikely RR+19—
HD-20
● Laura Liskey● Jim PresselINC
<1%>99%
2%98%
R+24.2R+22.9Solid RSolid RR+29—
HD-21
● Charles Burkley● Timothy WescoINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+26.6R+26.7Solid RSolid RR+34—
HD-22
● No Democrat● Craig SnowINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+54—
HD-23
● Austin Meives● Ethan ManningINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+39.0R+43.1Solid RSolid RR+49—
HD-24Flip risk
● Racheal Bleicher● Hunter SmithINC
40%60%
44%56%
R+1.9R+1.4Lean RToss-upR+8—
HD-25D flipD flip
● Tiffany Stoner● Becky CashINC
70%30%
62%38%
D+3.8D+2.8Lean DLean DR+4—
HD-26
● Chris CampbellINC● Magdalaine Davis
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+30.9D+30.7Solid DSolid DD+25—
HD-27
● Sheila KlinkerINC● Tracy Brown
99%1%
92%8%
D+19.5D+13.3Solid DLikely DD+7—
HD-28
● Karen Whitney● Jeff ThompsonINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+32.7R+34.7Solid RSolid RR+41—
HD-29
● Devon Wellington● Alaina ShonkwilerINC
8%92%
13%87%
R+10.7R+10.8Likely RLikely RR+17—
HD-30
● Jack Chance● Paula Davis
1%99%
1%99%
R+19.2R+24.8Solid RSolid RR+32—
HD-31
● Katie Robins● Lori Goss-ReavesINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+32.8R+35.0Solid RSolid RR+42—
HD-32
● Victoria WilburnINC● No RepublicanAlso: Paul Nix (I)
No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot—Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)D+9—
HD-33
● No Democrat● J.D. PrescottINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+50—
HD-34
● Sara Gullion● Richard Ivy
98%2%
87%13%
D+15.4D+11.0Solid DLikely DD+5—
HD-35
● Phil Gift● Elizabeth RowrayINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+27.8R+31.6Solid RSolid RR+38—
HD-36
● Kim Townsend● Kyle PierceINC
20%80%
26%74%
R+6.1R+5.9Likely RLean RR+12—
HD-37
● Lauren Cole● Todd HustonINC
10%90%
28%72%
R+10.6R+5.6Likely RLean RR+12—
HD-38
● Nate Stout● Heath VanNatterINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+37.2R+42.7Solid RSolid RR+49—
HD-39D flipD flip
● Lindsay Gramlich● Danny LopezINC
69%31%
73%27%
D+3.9D+5.9Lean DLean DR+1—
HD-40
● William Colteryahn● Greg SteuerwaldINC
8%92%
24%76%
R+11.5R+6.5Likely RLean RR+13—
HD-41
● Jackson Hayes● Mark GendaINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+30.4R+33.4Solid RSolid RR+40—
HD-42
● No Democrat● Tim YocumINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+50—
HD-43Flip risk
● Tonya PfaffINC● Amy Lore
91%9%
48%52%
D+11.2R+0.4Likely DToss-upR+7—
HD-44
● Kelsey Kauffman● Beau BairdINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+39.4R+43.7Solid RSolid RR+50—
HD-45
● Rebecca "Becky" Mayfield● Kellie Streeter
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+42.6R+50.0Solid RSolid RR+56—
HD-46
● James Pittsford III● Bob HeatonINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+23.9R+26.5Solid RSolid RR+33—
HD-47
● Michael Potter● Robb GreeneINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+32.5R+37.6Solid RSolid RR+44—
HD-48
● Emily Yaw● Doug MillerINCAlso: Marshall Travis (G)
1%99%
2%98%
R+22.1R+20.6Solid RSolid RR+28—
HD-49
● Michelle Milne● Joanna KingINC
1%99%
2%98%
R+22.9R+21.8Solid RSolid RR+29—
HD-50
● Pepper Snyder● Lorissa SweetINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+38.6R+43.9Solid RSolid RR+51—
HD-51
● Judy Rowe● Tony IsaINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+37.8R+42.7Solid RSolid RR+48—
HD-52
● No Democrat● Ben SmaltzINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+48—
HD-53
● Reece Axel-Adams● Ethan LawsonINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+30.2R+35.1Solid RSolid RR+41—
HD-54
● No Democrat● Cory CriswellINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+51—
HD-55
● Victoria Martz● Lindsay PattersonINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+46.8R+53.6Solid RSolid RR+60—
HD-56
● Thomas Rockwell● Randy Retter
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+25.4R+25.6Solid RSolid RR+33—
HD-57
● Suzanne Fortenberry● Wes Bennett
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+24.8R+26.3Solid RSolid RR+33—
HD-58
● Michelle Hennessee Sears● John Reed
1%99%
1%99%
R+20.0R+25.7Solid RSolid RR+32—
HD-59
● No Democrat● Ryan LauerINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+23—
HD-60
● Carrie L. Syczylo● Peggy MayfieldINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+38.3R+43.8Solid RSolid RR+50—
HD-61
● Matt PierceINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+62—
HD-62Flip riskD flip
● Amy Huffman Oliver● Dave HallINC
51%49%
75%25%
D+0.2D+6.1Toss-upLean DD+1—
HD-63
● Tiffanie Arthur● Amy Kippenbrock
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+39.5R+46.2Solid RSolid RR+53—
HD-64
● Candace Greer● Matt HostettlerINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+37.0R+40.6Solid RSolid RR+48—
HD-65
● No Democrat● Christopher MayINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+53—
HD-66
● Ryan Price● Zach PayneINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+26.4R+33.7Solid RSolid RR+40—
HD-67
● Justin Chadwick● Alex ZimmermanINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+41.9R+47.1Solid RSolid RR+54—
HD-68
● Hunter Collins● Garrett BascomINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+45.5R+51.9Solid RSolid RR+58—
HD-69
● Chris Bowen● Jim LucasINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+38.8R+47.7Solid RSolid RR+54—
HD-70
● Sarah Blessing● Scott Fluhr
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+33.7R+40.3Solid RSolid RR+47—
HD-71
● Wendy Dant ChesserINC● James McClure Jr.
95%5%
74%26%
D+12.2D+6.2Likely DLean DEven—
HD-72R flipR flip
● Michele Henry● Darrell Neeley
38%62%
31%69%
R+2.1R+4.7Lean RLean RR+12—
HD-73
● Allen J. Miller● Jennifer MeltzerINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+37.9R+42.7Solid RSolid RR+50—
HD-74
● No Democrat● Stephen BartelsINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+40—
HD-75
● No Democrat● Cindy LedbetterINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+36—
HD-76
● Logan Patberg● Wendy McNamaraINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+24.9R+24.3Solid RSolid RR+32—
HD-77
● Alex BurtonINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+14—
HD-78
● Sally Busby● Tim O'BrienINC
5%95%
16%84%
R+13.9R+9.6Solid RLikely RR+17—
HD-79
● Ian Richardson● Matt LehmanINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+44.2R+50.9Solid RSolid RR+57—
HD-80
● Phil GiaQuintaINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+40—
HD-81
● Sharon Wight● Martin CarbaughINC
2%98%
4%96%
R+15.9R+17.7Solid RSolid RR+25—
HD-82
● Kyle MillerINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+17—
HD-83
● Wesley Haffenden● Christopher JudyINC
3%97%
6%94%
R+13.9R+15.2Solid RLikely RR+22—
HD-84
● Misti Meehan● Bob MorrisINC
4%96%
14%86%
R+14.4R+10.3Solid RLikely RR+18—
HD-85
● Mark Wehrle● Dave HeineINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+31.0R+34.9Solid RSolid RR+42—
HD-86
● Ed DeLaneyINC● Glenn Bill
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+54.7D+53.7Solid DSolid DD+47—
HD-87
● Carey HamiltonINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+31—
HD-88
● Stephanie Jo Yocum● Chris JeterINC
25%75%
30%70%
R+5.0R+4.8Lean RLean RR+11—
HD-89
● Mitch GoreINC● No RepublicanAlso: Drew Weingarten (L)
No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot—Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)D+7—
HD-90
● No Democrat● Andrew IrelandINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+21—
HD-91
● Jarren Hurt● Robert BehningINC
6%94%
9%91%
R+11.6R+13.3Likely RLikely RR+21—
HD-92
● Renee PackINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+17—
HD-93
● Eva Rosberg● Julie McGuireINC
10%90%
15%85%
R+9.7R+9.8Likely RLikely RR+17—
HD-94
● Cherrish PryorINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+70—
HD-95
● John BartlettINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+50—
HD-96
● Greg PorterINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+72—
HD-97
● Justin MoedINC● No RepublicanAlso: Mark Renholzberger (L)
No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot—Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)D+14—
HD-98
● Robin ShacklefordINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+63—
HD-99
● Vanessa SummersINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+62—
HD-100
● Blake JohnsonINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+43—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).