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Tennessee · 2026 forecast · Upper South region · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Tennessee in 2026

Tennessee elects a U.S. senator and a governor, all 9 members of the U.S. House, 17 of 33 members of the State Senate and all 99 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.

On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · Governor · 9 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.

U.S. Senate
R >99%R 99%Marquita Bradshaw vs. Bill Hagerty
Governor
R 98%R 98%Jerri Green vs. Marsha Blackburn + 2 more
U.S. House
0.2 D · 8.8 R0.3 D · 8.7 RExpected seats of 9
Tennessee State Senate
R >99%R >99%Chance of control · 17 of 33 seats up
Tennessee House of Representatives
R >99%R >99%Chance of control · 99 of 99 seats up

U.S. House districts · Tennessee

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Trifecta

Republican trifecta now

Republicans hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.

After the election

Dem. trifecta
<1%
Divided
2%
Rep. trifecta
98%

The Republican trifecta most likely continues (98%); 2% chance it is broken.

After the election

Dem. trifecta
<1%
Divided
2%
Rep. trifecta
98%

The Republican trifecta most likely continues (98%); 2% chance it is broken.

Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.

Statewide races

Every race decided by the whole state.

U.S. Senate

Solid RSolid R
● Marquita Bradshaw● Bill HagertyINC
<1%>99%
1%99%

Governor

Solid RSolid R
● Jerri Green● Marsha BlackburnAlso: David Hatley (I), Lauren Pinkston (I)
2%98%
2%98%

The Tennessee environment

The environment Tennessee's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
Tennessee state offices vs. the nation
−0.7± 4.1 (80% range) · 1 polled state race
Tennessee state-office environment
D+8.80.7 pts more Republican than the nation

The polled state races behind it

← Runs more RepublicanRuns more Democratic →Tennessee estimateWeighted, pulled toward the nationTennessee GovernorPolls R+14.2 · 16% of the estimate

Over time

EvenD+5D+10Oct 10Oct 16Tennessee D+8.8Nation D+9.5

Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Tennessee environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.

U.S. House

9 districts. The national House forecast.

Solid D0

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R3

Solid R6

Solid D0

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R4

Solid R5

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it.

Nashville

9 races
DistrictCandidatesChance of winning (D · R)Avg. marginRatingLeanPolls
TN-1
● Kristi Burke● Diana HarshbargerINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+47.9R+51.4Solid RSolid RR+58—
TN-2
● Michaela Barnett● Tim BurchettINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+23.6R+25.5Solid RSolid RR+33—
TN-3
● Anna Golladay● Chuck FleischmannINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+26.7R+28.4Solid RSolid RR+35—
TN-4
● Victoria Broderick● Scott DesJarlaisINC
3%97%
5%95%
R+13.7R+15.0Solid RLikely RR+22—
TN-5
● Chaz Molder● Charlie Hatcher
5%95%
4%96%
R+9.9R+12.3Likely RSolid RR+202
TN-6
● Mike Croley● Johnny Garrett
1%99%
3%97%
R+17.2R+18.4Solid RSolid RR+26—
TN-7
● Darden Copeland● Matt Van EppsINC
3%97%
6%94%
R+13.4R+13.9Solid RLikely RR+21—
TN-8
● Heidi Kuhn● David KustoffINC
6%94%
9%91%
R+11.1R+12.1Likely RLikely RR+19—
TN-9R flipR flip
● Justin Pearson● Brent Taylor
6%94%
6%94%
R+9.6R+11.3Likely RLikely RR+201

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).

Tennessee General Assembly

Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.

Tennessee State Senate

Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%

Avg. 6 D – 27 R seats · 17 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds

Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%

Avg. 6 D – 27 R seats · 17 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds

17 of 33 seats up; 16 holdovers.

Full forecast

Tennessee State Senate ratings

No seat is projected to change parties.

No seat is projected to change parties.

Solid D4

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R2

Solid R11

Solid D4

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R2

Solid R11

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.

Tennessee House of Representatives

Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%

Avg. 28 D – 71 R seats · 50 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds

Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%

Avg. 26 D – 73 R seats · 50 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds

Full forecast

Tennessee House of Representatives ratings

3 seats projected to flip: 3 R→D.

1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D25

Likely D0

Lean D2

Toss-up0

Lean R3

Likely R7

Solid R62

Solid D20

Likely D4

Lean D1

Toss-up2

Lean R1

Likely R8

Solid R63

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.

Closest legislative races

HD-75Allie PhillipsMichael Lankford61%Rep.74%Rep. HD-18Bryan GoldbergElaine DavisD flipFlip risk63%Dem.58%Rep. HD-83Margaret PriceMark WhiteD flipFlip risk64%Dem.53%Dem. HD-30Art RymerEsther Helton-Haynes73%Rep.83%Rep. HD-49Connie CashaMike Sparks77%Rep.86%Rep. SD-31David WeatherspoonBrent Taylor82%Rep.85%Rep.
SD-7Bryan LanganRichard Briggs82%Rep.88%Rep. HD-27Paige QuirinMichele Reneau86%Rep.92%Rep. HD-34Owen FarnsworthTim Rudd86%Rep.91%Rep. HD-13Brett WindrowRobert Stevens90%Rep.94%Rep. HD-26Nathan DentonGreg Martin91%Rep.95%Rep. HD-37Mary Ann YoungCharlie Baum92%Rep.94%Rep.

How Tennessee votes

Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.

Staggered Senate

Senators serve four-year terms; about half the seats are on the ballot each election.

17 of 33 seats on the ballot; 16 holdovers (2 D, 14 R) serve until a later election.

Simple-majority veto override

A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto.