Minnesota · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Minnesota State Senate?

All 67 seats are on the ballot. 34 seats make a majority. 45 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Democrats are very likely to control the Minnesota State Senate (96%).

Democrats

96%

chance of control

Republicans

Avg. D seats: 39.480% range 35–44
Avg. R seats: 27.680% range 23–32
Now: 34 D · 33 R67 up this year

Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (45+ seats): 6%

34 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party33 R now

Democrats are clearly favored to control the Minnesota State Senate (91%).

Democrats

91%

chance of control

Republicans

Avg. D seats: 38.480% range 34–43
Avg. R seats: 28.680% range 24–33
Now: 34 D · 33 R67 up this year

Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (45+ seats): 4%

34 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party33 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 67 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

5 seats projected to flip: 5 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

4 seats projected to flip: 4 R→D. 6 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D31

Show 25 more

Likely D3

Lean D5

Toss-up2

Lean R3

Likely R4

Solid R19

Show 13 more

Solid D28

Show 22 more

Likely D3

Lean D5

Toss-up6

Lean R3

Likely R4

Solid R18

Show 12 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Minnesota

Minneapolis-St. Paul

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

SD-32Chris FordMichael KreunFlip riskFlip risk51%Rep.55%Dem. SD-58Mark LegvoldBill LieskeFlip riskFlip risk51%Dem.56%Rep. SD-48Dan KesslerJulia ColemanD flipD flip61%Dem.67%Dem. SD-24Simon GlaserNels T. PiersonD flipFlip risk61%Dem.52%Dem. SD-54Rick OlsonBen BakebergFlip risk64%Rep.51%Dem. SD-33Nat SmithKarin HousleyD flipD flip65%Dem.67%Dem. SD-57Steven SchroerZach Duckworth70%Rep.60%Rep. SD-26Jack HedinCherie Johnson75%Rep.72%Rep. SD-35Angela NelsonJim AbelerD flipD flip76%Dem.79%Dem. SD-4Rob KupecAustin PetersonFlip risk80%Dem.55%Rep.

Most likely to flip

SD-37Kristy JanigoBrady HoagD flipD flip95%to flip89%to flip SD-35Angela NelsonJim AbelerD flipD flip76%to flip79%to flip SD-33Nat SmithKarin HousleyD flipD flip65%to flip67%to flip SD-24Simon GlaserNels T. PiersonD flipFlip risk61%to flip52%to flip SD-48Dan KesslerJulia ColemanD flipD flip61%to flip67%to flip SD-58Mark LegvoldBill LieskeFlip riskFlip risk51%to flip44%to flip SD-32Chris FordMichael KreunFlip riskFlip risk49%to flip55%to flip SD-54Rick OlsonBen BakebergFlip risk36%to flip51%to flip SD-57Steven SchroerZach Duckworth30%to flip40%to flip SD-26Jack HedinCherie Johnson25%to flip28%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

67 races, 4 without a contest between the major parties.

67 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
SD-1	● Bjorn Solberg● Mark JohnsonINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+30.9R+31.4	Solid RSolid R	R+37	—
SD-2	● Dan R. Rogers● Steve GreenINCAlso: Calvin Larson Jr (OTH)	8%92% 12%88%	R+10.5R+11.4	Likely RLikely R	R+16	—
SD-3	● Grant HauschildINC● Andrea Zupancich	91%9% 62%38%	D+10.8D+2.7	Likely DLean D	R+1	—
SD-4Flip risk	● Rob KupecINC● Austin Peterson	80%20% 45%55%	D+6.2R+1.2	Lean DToss-up	R+6	—
SD-5	● Skylar Fynboh● Mike Wiener	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+36.1R+41.3	Solid RSolid R	R+46	—
SD-6	● Denise Slipy● Keri HeintzemanINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+19.9R+22.0	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
SD-7	● Kim (Kotonias) McLaughlin● Robert FarnsworthINC	17%83% 21%79%	R+7.0R+7.8	Likely RLean R	R+13	—
SD-8	● Jen McEwenINC● Darrick Law	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+42.9D+41.7	Solid DSolid D	D+40	—
SD-9	● Krystyne M. Knutson● Jordan RasmussonINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+27.5R+29.3	Solid RSolid R	R+35	—
SD-10	● Tara Killen● Nathan WesenbergINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+37.6R+43.6	Solid RSolid R	R+49	—
SD-11	● Mary Carlson● Jason RarickINCAlso: Monique Doward (FWD)	4%96% 6%94%	R+13.5R+15.5	Solid RLikely R	R+20	—
SD-12	● Kari Dorry● Torrey WestromINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+28.0R+31.2	Solid RSolid R	R+37	—
SD-13	● Trent C Dilks● Jared J. Gapinski	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+23.5R+28.4	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
SD-14Flip risk	● Aric PutnamINC● Bernie Perryman	84%16% 58%42%	D+7.2D+2.0	Likely DToss-up	R+2	—
SD-15	● Andrea Boettger● Braxton John Seifert	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+25.3R+29.6	Solid RSolid R	R+36	—
SD-16	● Kathy Jorgenson● Andrew R. LangINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+25.9R+28.5	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
SD-17	● Julie Kelzer● Glenn H GruenhagenINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+28.8R+32.1	Solid RSolid R	R+38	—
SD-18	● Nick FrentzINC● Jackie Henry	98%2% 88%12%	D+16.4D+11.0	Solid DLikely D	D+6	—
SD-19	● Sam Powell● John R. JasinskiINC	1%99% 3%97%	R+18.7R+18.9	Solid RSolid R	R+25	—
SD-20	● Jason Lohmann● Steven E. Jacob	6%94% 6%94%	R+12.1R+15.4	Likely RLikely R	R+21	—
SD-21	● Caitlyn Sanow-Minett● Chris Knoll	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+30.0R+33.8	Solid RSolid R	R+40	—
SD-22	● Marisa Ulmen● Jeremy Munson	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+27.0R+27.2	Solid RSolid R	R+33	—
SD-23	● Angie Hanson● Gene DorninkINC	7%93% 10%90%	R+10.8R+12.9	Likely RLikely R	R+19	—
SD-24D flipFlip risk	● Simon Glaser● Nels T. Pierson	61%39% 52%48%	D+2.0D+0.6	Lean DToss-up	R+4	—
SD-25	● Liz BoldonINC● John Howie	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+29.5D+26.3	Solid DSolid D	D+22	—
SD-26	● Jack Hedin● Cherie Johnson	25%75% 28%72%	R+4.9R+5.4	Lean RLean R	R+11	—
SD-27	● Brandon Van Dover● Andrew MathewsINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+33.7R+38.4	Solid RSolid R	R+44	—
SD-28	● Max Glenna● Mark KoranINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+25.4R+29.0	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
SD-29	● Louis McNutt● Michael Holmstrom JrINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+23.2R+28.1	Solid RSolid R	R+32	—
SD-30	● Leah Temple● Eric LuceroINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+20.3R+21.7	Solid RSolid R	R+26	—
SD-31	● Gadisa Berkessa● Calvin BahrINC	1%99% 3%97%	R+18.3R+20.4	Solid RSolid R	R+26	—
SD-32Flip riskFlip risk	● Chris Ford● Michael KreunINC	49%51% 55%45%	R+0.1D+1.1	Toss-upToss-up	R+3	—
SD-33D flipD flip	● Nat Smith● Karin HousleyINC	65%35% 67%33%	D+2.8D+4.0	Lean DLean D	D+1	—
SD-34	● John HoffmanINC● Karen Attia	>99%1% 95%5%	D+21.9D+16.7	Solid DSolid D	D+13	—
SD-35D flipD flip	● Angela Nelson● Jim AbelerINC	76%24% 79%21%	D+5.2D+7.6	Lean DLean D	D+3	—
SD-36	● Heather GustafsonINC● Heidi Heino	99%1% 91%9%	D+18.2D+13.0	Solid DLikely D	D+10	—
SD-37D flipD flip	● Kristy Janigo● Brady Hoag	95%5% 89%11%	D+12.8D+12.1	Solid DLikely D	D+8	—
SD-38	● Susan PhaINC● Brad Olson	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+44.0D+45.5	Solid DSolid D	D+41	—
SD-39	● Mary K KuneshINC● Pam WolfAlso: Ngone Saliou Niang (OTH)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+38.1D+40.3	Solid DSolid D	D+36	—
SD-40	● John MartyINC● Rachel Japuntich	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+36.7D+37.3	Solid DSolid D	D+34	—
SD-41	● Judy SeebergerINC● Tom Dippel	93%7% 73%27%	D+10.6D+5.6	Likely DLean D	D+2	—
SD-42	● Bonnie WestlinINC● Kevin Peterson	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+31.9D+32.4	Solid DSolid D	D+27	—
SD-43	● Mike Freiberg● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+46	—
SD-44	● Sam Rosemark● James Tacheny	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+26.3D+25.7	Solid DSolid D	D+22	—
SD-45	● Ann Johnson StewartINC● Shannon Bruce	>99%<1% 97%3%	D+22.7D+21.0	Solid DSolid D	D+17	—
SD-46	● Ron LatzINC● Kayla Wright	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+55.2D+54.4	Solid DSolid D	D+50	—
SD-47	● Amanda Hemmingsen-JaegerINC● Brian Stalboerger	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+27.9D+25.7	Solid DSolid D	D+22	—
SD-48D flipD flip	● Dan Kessler● Julia ColemanINC	61%39% 67%33%	D+2.0D+4.0	Lean DLean D	Even	—
SD-49	● Krish Subrahmanian● Dustin R. DuFaultAlso: Kris Babler (I)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+33.5D+34.0	Solid DSolid D	D+29	—
SD-50	● Karla Hult● Owen Michaelson	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+39.5D+40.8	Solid DSolid D	D+36	—
SD-51	● Simon Trautmann Cordova● Juline Birgersson	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+44.1D+44.9	Solid DSolid D	D+40	—
SD-52	● Liz Reyer● Brady O'Neil	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+34.7D+33.5	Solid DSolid D	D+29	—
SD-53	● Paul Cumings● Todd Podgorski	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+23.0D+21.9	Solid DSolid D	D+18	—
SD-54Flip risk	● Rick Olson● Ben Bakeberg	36%64% 51%49%	R+2.7D+0.2	Lean RToss-up	R+4	—
SD-55	● Lindsey PortINC● Van Holston	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+23.0D+20.5	Solid DSolid D	D+16	—
SD-56	● Erin Maye QuadeINC● Raymond David Petersen	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+26.1D+23.0	Solid DSolid D	D+19	—
SD-57	● Steven Schroer● Zach DuckworthINC	30%70% 40%60%	R+3.9R+2.4	Lean RLean R	R+7	—
SD-58Flip riskFlip risk	● Mark Legvold● Bill LieskeINC	51%49% 44%56%	D+0.2R+1.2	Toss-upToss-up	R+6	—
SD-59	● Bobby Joe ChampionINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+69	—
SD-60	● Doron ClarkINC● Abigail Wolters	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+70.1D+75.9	Solid DSolid D	D+72	—
SD-61	● Scott DibbleINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+79	—
SD-62	● Omar FatehINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+81	—
SD-63	● Zaynab MohamedINC● Diane Napper	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+75.3D+82.0	Solid DSolid D	D+78	—
SD-64	● Erin MurphyINC● Robert Bushard	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+68.9D+73.1	Solid DSolid D	D+69	—
SD-65	● Robyn Gulley● _ Rocco	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+59.4D+61.7	Solid DSolid D	D+58	—
SD-66	● Clare Oumou VerbetenINC● Kathleen Bart	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+61.0D+65.6	Solid DSolid D	D+61	—
SD-67	● Foung HawjINC● Toby Hesselgrave	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+48.1D+44.8	Solid DSolid D	D+41	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).