Top-four primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party; the four with the most votes advance to November.
Alaska · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Who will control the Alaska State Senate?
10 of 20 seats are on the ballot; the others are elected in alternate years. 11 seats make a majority.
The bipartisan coalition is very likely to hold a majority of the Alaska State Senate. The coalition keeps a majority in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Coalition
>99%
chance of a majority
Republicans
<1%
- Avg. D seats
- 8.080% range 8–8
- Avg. R seats
- 12.080% range 12–12
- Now
- 9 D · 11 R10 up this year
Coalition: A bipartisan majority coalition of 9 Democrats and 5 Republicans has run the Senate since 2023; the other 6 Republicans are the minority. The coalition count is Democrats, independents and the Republicans in the current majority (on average 14.0 of 20 seats); Democrats alone win a majority in fewer than 1 of every 100 simulations. Races between candidates of one party (a coalition Republican against a conservative challenger) are not simulated: the incumbent, or in an open seat a sitting legislator, is counted as the winner.
The bipartisan coalition is very likely to hold a majority of the Alaska State Senate. The coalition keeps a majority in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Coalition
>99%
chance of a majority
Republicans
<1%
- Avg. D seats
- 8.080% range 8–8
- Avg. R seats
- 12.080% range 12–12
- Now
- 9 D · 11 R10 up this year
Coalition: A bipartisan majority coalition of 9 Democrats and 5 Republicans has run the Senate since 2023; the other 6 Republicans are the minority. The coalition count is Democrats, independents and the Republicans in the current majority (on average 13.9 of 20 seats); Democrats alone win a majority in fewer than 1 of every 100 simulations. Races between candidates of one party (a coalition Republican against a conservative challenger) are not simulated: the incumbent, or in an open seat a sitting legislator, is counted as the winner.
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Holdover, not up this year
Race ratings
All 10 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.
1 seat projected to flip: 1 D→Ind.
1 seat projected to flip: 1 D→Ind.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Purple: an independent is favored.
The map
Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.
Alaska
Anchorage
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Seats to watch
The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.
Closest races
No race is closer than Likely (80%).
How this chamber is elected
Rules that shape these races and the forecast.
Ranked-choice voting
Voters rank the finalists. If nobody has a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to each voter's next choice. The forecast models the final two-candidate round.
Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.
10 of 20 seats on the ballot; 10 holdovers (5 D, 5 R) serve until a later election.
How the odds have moved
Chance of winning control, by forecast date.
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Every outcome we simulated
Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.
Every race
10 races, 6 without a contest between the major parties.
10 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD-A | ● No Democrat● Bert StedmanINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+7 | — | |
| SD-CR vs R | ● No Democrat● Louise StutesAlso: Heath Smith (R), Carrie Harris (R) | Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November | — | R+15 | — | |
| SD-ER vs R | ● No Democrat● Cathy GiesselINCAlso: Gretchen Stoddard (R), Jace White (R) | Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November | — | Even | — | |
| SD-G | ● Elvi Gray-JacksonINC● No RepublicanAlso: Nicholas Danger (I) | No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot | — | D+12 | — | |
| SD-I | ● Löki TobinINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+18 | — | |
| SD-K | ● Bill WielechowskiINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+6 | — | |
| SD-M | ● Pat Chesbro● Cathy TiltonINCAlso: Zane Vrvilo (R), Ryan Berry (R) | R+36.9R+39.2 | R+46 | — | ||
| SD-O | ● Peter Bauer● George RauscherINCAlso: Ryan Sheldon (R) | R+36.6R+38.9 | R+46 | — | ||
| SD-Q | ● William Hunt● Frank Tomaszewski | R+30.6R+29.0 | R+37 | — | ||
| SD-SInd. flipInd. flip | ● Bryce Edgmon● Darren Morgan DeaconAlso: WG Guy (D), Rick Robb (I) | D+18.7D+11.7 | D+6 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. Purple marks an independent the model treats as the main challenger. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.