North Dakota · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026
48 of 94 seats are on the ballot; the others are elected in alternate years. 48 seats make a majority. 63 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.
Republicans are very likely to control the North Dakota House of Representatives (>99%).
Republican supermajority now (83 of 94 seats; 63 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.
11 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party83 R now
Republicans are very likely to control the North Dakota House of Representatives (>99%).
Republican supermajority now (83 of 94 seats; 63 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.
11 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party83 R now
All 24 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.
2 seats projected to flip: 1 D→R, 1 R→D.
1 seat projected to flip: 1 D→R. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent.
Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.
North Dakota
Fargo
The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.
Rules that shape these races and the forecast.
Senators and representatives serve four-year terms. Each election covers about half the districts (the odd-numbered ones in 2026), with the senator and both representatives elected together.
48 of 94 seats on the ballot; 46 holdovers (3 D, 43 R) serve until a later election.
Each of the 47 districts elects one senator and two representatives; voters pick up to two House candidates. Districts 4 and 9 are split into single-member subdistricts (A and B).
Chance of winning control, by forecast date.
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.
24 races, 4 without a contest between the major parties.
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LD-12 seats | ● Alex Johnson● Nicole DerenneAlso: Laurie Garbel (R), Steve Thoring (D) | R+50.0R+58.5 | R+64 | — | ||
| LD-32 seats | ● Tara Hiatt● Blaine DesLauriersAlso: Natalie Mclaughlin (D) | R+37.0R+43.4 | R+49 | — | ||
| LD-52 seats | ● Kyle Erickson● Scott LouserINCAlso: Roger Brabandt (R), Zach Raknerud (D) | R+29.3R+33.9 | R+40 | — | ||
| LD-72 seats | ● Tiffany Williams-Rice● Greg VetterAlso: Steve Sauter (R), Jason Thoms (D) | R+35.2R+42.4 | R+49 | — | ||
| LD-9D vs D2 seats | ● Collette BrownINC● No RepublicanAlso: Duane Poitra (D) | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+18 | — | |
| LD-11D vs D2 seats | ● Liz ConmyINC● No RepublicanAlso: Stass Andrianova (D) | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+12 | — | |
| LD-132 seats | ● Maggi Gadaire● Austen SchauerINCAlso: Jim Jonas (R), Brenda Jo Gillund (D) | R+4.5R+3.9 | R+11 | — | ||
| LD-152 seats | ● Frances Drury● Kathy FrelichINCAlso: Corry Kenner (R) | R+33.6R+37.0 | R+43 | — | ||
| LD-172 seats | ● Don Aandal● Mark SanfordINCAlso: Reed Johnson (R) | R+10.5R+11.7 | R+18 | — | ||
| LD-192 seats | ● Jolene L Hermanson● Karen A AndersonINCAlso: David Monson (R), Lynnell Popowski (D) | R+36.5R+43.3 | R+49 | — | ||
| LD-21D vs D2 seats | ● LaurieBeth HagerINC● No RepublicanAlso: Laura Dronen (D) | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+14 | — | |
| LD-232 seats | ● Mark Casler● Dennis NehringINCAlso: Corey Johnson (R), Michael A Steele (D) | R+52.3R+64.5 | R+69 | — | ||
| LD-25R flipR flip2 seats | ● Alisa MitskogINC● Kathy SkrochAlso: Terry Goerger (R) | R+21.7R+30.5 | R+37 | — | ||
| LD-27R vs R2 seats | ● No Democrat● Greg StemenINCAlso: Shawn Kessel (R) | Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November | — | R+19 | — | |
| LD-292 seats | ● Dianne Norris● Craig HeadlandINCAlso: Kevin Wolsky (R) | R+37.2R+44.2 | R+50 | — | ||
| LD-312 seats | ● Tim Spilman● Dawson HolleINCAlso: Karen Rohr (R), Rissa M Williams (D) | R+36.6R+41.9 | R+48 | — | ||
| LD-332 seats | ● Kimball Banks● Anna S NovakINCAlso: Mike Heger (R), Stacie Kruckenberg (D) | R+53.1R+62.3 | R+68 | — | ||
| LD-352 seats | ● Taylor Johnson● Karen KarlsINCAlso: Bill Tveit (R), Lynne M Lafer-Halvorson (D) | R+14.8R+17.8 | R+25 | — | ||
| LD-372 seats | ● Susan Josephson● Bob MartinsonAlso: Kylan Klauzer (R), Shelley Lenz (D) | R+47.9R+53.9 | R+60 | — | ||
| LD-392 seats | ● Sandy Baertsch● Mike SchatzINCAlso: Keith Kempenich (R) | R+58.9R+68.9 | R+73 | — | ||
| LD-41D flipFlip risk2 seats | ● Stacy Heidenreich● Jennifer BensonAlso: Chris Tiongson (D) | D+2.6Even | R+7 | — | ||
| LD-43Flip risk2 seats | ● Lukas Arthur Maughan● Jill T ChandlerAlso: Tyler York (D), Mike Holmes (R) | D+3.1D+0.7 | R+6 | — | ||
| LD-452 seats | ● Don Lippert● Carrie McLeodINCAlso: Eric J Murphy (R), Ross Lockhart (D) | R+5.1R+5.7 | R+13 | — | ||
| LD-472 seats | ● Rosann Jacobs-Fode● Scott WagnerAlso: Jon Lee (R), Cole Montoya (D) | R+27.5R+31.6 | R+38 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.