Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.
17 of 34 seats on the ballot; 17 holdovers (7 D, 10 R) serve until a later election.
Missouri · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Who will control the Missouri State Senate?
17 of 34 seats are on the ballot; the others are elected in alternate years. 18 seats make a majority. The lieutenant governor breaks ties, but passing a bill takes 18 votes. 23 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.
Republicans are very likely to control the Missouri State Senate (>99%).
Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
- Avg. D seats
- 11.880% range 10–13
- Avg. R seats
- 22.280% range 21–24
- Now
- 10 D · 23 R · 1 vacant17 up this year
Republican supermajority now (23 of 34 seats; 23 needed for two-thirds): 36% chance it holds · 64% chance it's broken.
10 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party23 R now
Tie: The lieutenant governor breaks ties, but passing a bill takes 18 votes.
Republicans are very likely to control the Missouri State Senate (>99%).
Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
- Avg. D seats
- 11.580% range 10–13
- Avg. R seats
- 22.580% range 21–24
- Now
- 10 D · 23 R · 1 vacant17 up this year
Republican supermajority now (23 of 34 seats; 23 needed for two-thirds): 48% chance it holds · 52% chance it's broken.
10 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party23 R now
Tie: The lieutenant governor breaks ties, but passing a bill takes 18 votes.
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Holdover, not up this year
Race ratings
All 17 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.
2 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D.
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent.
The map
Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.
Missouri
St. Louis
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Seats to watch
The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.
Closest races
Most likely to flip
SD-30Betsy FogleMelanie StinnettD flipD flip76%to flip65%to flip SD-8Keri IngleJonathan PattersonD flipFlip risk70%to flip55%to flip SD-34Shereka BarnesMike Jones29%to flip31%to flip SD-2Susan ShumwayNick Schroer2%to flip4%to flip SD-22Jeff AbneyJim Avery<1%to flip1%to flip SD-24Tracy McCreeryLaVanna Wrobley<1%to flip3%to flip SD-6J. Don SalcedoJake Vogel<1%to flip<1%to flip SD-20Sean FalconerLori Rook<1%to flip<1%to flip SD-12Judy McNeeceRusty Black<1%to flip<1%to flip SD-16Virginia StaabsBill Hardwick<1%to flip<1%to flip
How this chamber is elected
Rules that shape these races and the forecast.
How the odds have moved
Chance of winning control, by forecast date.
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Every outcome we simulated
Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.
Every race
17 races, 1 without a contest between the major parties.
17 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD-2 | ● Susan Shumway● Nick SchroerINC | R+15.7R+17.4 | R+24 | — | ||
| SD-4D vs D | ● Gina Mitten● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+50 | — | |
| SD-6 | ● J. Don Salcedo● Jake Vogel | R+37.4R+43.5 | R+49 | — | ||
| SD-8D flipFlip risk | ● Keri Ingle● Jonathan Patterson | D+3.7D+1.1 | R+6 | — | ||
| SD-10 | ● John Wells● Mike Deering | R+35.5R+40.4 | R+46 | — | ||
| SD-12 | ● Judy McNeece● Rusty BlackINC | R+45.2R+51.6 | R+57 | — | ||
| SD-14 | ● Raychel Proudie● Vernon Norman | D+59.8D+59.4 | D+54 | — | ||
| SD-16 | ● Virginia Staabs● Bill Hardwick | R+47.0R+53.6 | R+59 | — | ||
| SD-18 | ● Nick Miller● Greg Sharpe | R+41.7R+48.3 | R+54 | — | ||
| SD-20 | ● Sean Falconer● Lori RookINC | R+36.3R+42.4 | R+48 | — | ||
| SD-22 | ● Jeff Abney● Jim Avery | R+22.8R+27.3 | R+33 | — | ||
| SD-24 | ● Tracy McCreeryINC● LaVanna Wrobley | D+23.7D+19.9 | D+14 | — | ||
| SD-26 | ● Victoria Taylor Wors● Ben BrownINC | R+36.5R+42.2 | R+48 | — | ||
| SD-28 | ● Mike McCaffree● Sam Alexander | R+44.9R+53.4 | R+59 | — | ||
| SD-30D flipD flip | ● Betsy Fogle● Melanie StinnettAlso: Cecil Ince (L) | D+5.1D+3.8 | R+3 | — | ||
| SD-32 | ● Imma J Curl● Jill CarterINC | R+40.4R+45.8 | R+52 | — | ||
| SD-34 | ● Shereka Barnes● Mike Jones | R+3.9R+4.6 | R+10 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.