Connecticut · 2026 forecast · New England region · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Connecticut in 2026

Connecticut elects a governor, an attorney general, a secretary of state, a treasurer, an auditor, all 5 members of the U.S. House, all 36 members of the State Senate and all 151 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.

On the November 3 ballot: Governor · 4 statewide offices · 5 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.

Governor: D 99%D 99%Ned Lamont vs. Ryan Fazio
U.S. House: 5.0 D · 0.0 R4.9 D · 0.1 RExpected seats of 5
Connecticut State Senate: D >99%D >99%Chance of control · 36 of 36 seats up
Connecticut House of Representatives: D >99%D >99%Chance of control · 151 of 151 seats up
Attorney General: D >99%D >99%William Tong vs. John Bolton
Secretary of State: D >99%D 99%Stephanie Thomas vs. Peter Lumaj
Treasurer: D >99%D 99%Erick Russell vs. Fred Wilms
Auditor: D >99%D 99%Sean Scanlon vs. Jen Tooker

Trifecta
Statewide
Environment
U.S. House
General Assembly
Election rules

U.S. House districts · Connecticut

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Trifecta

Democratic trifecta now

Democrats hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.

After the election

Dem. trifecta: 99%
Divided: 1%
Rep. trifecta: <1%

The Democratic trifecta most likely continues (99%); 1% chance it is broken.

After the election

Dem. trifecta: 99%
Divided: 1%
Rep. trifecta: <1%

The Democratic trifecta most likely continues (99%); 1% chance it is broken.

Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.

Statewide races

Every race decided by the whole state. Statewide offices nationwide.

Governor

Solid DSolid D

● Ned LamontINC● Ryan Fazio

99%1%

Statewide offices

Attorney General

Solid DSolid D

● William TongINC● John Bolton

>99%<1%

Secretary of State

Solid DSolid D

● Stephanie ThomasINC● Peter Lumaj

>99%<1%

99%1%

Treasurer

Solid DSolid D

● Erick RussellINC● Fred Wilms

>99%<1%

99%1%

Auditor

Solid DSolid D

● Sean ScanlonINC● Jen Tooker

>99%<1%

99%1%

Ratings

Solid D5

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans).

The Connecticut environment

The environment Connecticut's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.

National environment: D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
Connecticut state offices vs. the nation: +1.0± 3.9 (80% range) · 2 polled state races
Connecticut state-office environment: D+10.51.0 pts more Democratic than the nation

The polled state races behind it

Over time

Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Connecticut environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.

U.S. House

5 districts. The national House forecast.

Solid D5

Solid D4

Likely D1

CT-2

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans).

Hartford

5 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
CT-1	● Luke Bronin● Amy Chai	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+39.2D+33.1	Solid DSolid D	D+24	—
CT-2	● Joe CourtneyINC● George Austin	>99%<1% 95%5%	D+22.6D+14.8	Solid DLikely D	D+9	—
CT-3	● Rosa DeLauroINC● Chris Lancia	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+30.1D+25.3	Solid DSolid D	D+16	—
CT-4	● Jim HimesINC● Michael Goldstein	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+38.9D+35.1	Solid DSolid D	D+26	—
CT-5	● Jahana HayesINC● Chris Shea	>99%1% 96%4%	D+20.7D+16.1	Solid DSolid D	D+7	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.

Connecticut General Assembly

Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.

Connecticut State Senate

Avg. 31 D – 5 R seats · 19 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds

Avg. 32 D – 4 R seats · 19 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds

Full forecast

Connecticut State Senate ratings

6 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

8 seats projected to flip: 8 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D27

Likely D1

SD-7flip

Lean D3

Toss-up2

Lean R1

SD-16

Likely R2

Solid R0

Solid D22

Likely D9

Lean D2

Toss-up2

Lean R1

SD-32

Likely R0

Solid R0

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.

Connecticut House of Representatives

Avg. 123 D – 28 R seats · 76 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds

Avg. 127 D – 24 R seats · 76 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds

Full forecast

Connecticut House of Representatives ratings

20 seats projected to flip: 20 R→D. 5 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

27 seats projected to flip: 27 R→D. 5 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D104

Likely D8

Lean D10

Toss-up5

Lean R5

Likely R8

Solid R11

Solid D98

Likely D20

Lean D10

Toss-up5

Lean R7

Likely R5

Solid R6

Closest legislative races

SD-34Brandi MandatoPaul CicarellaFlip riskD flip51%Rep.68%Dem. SD-30Aaron ZimmerStephen HardingFlip riskD flip51%Dem.72%Dem. HD-112Wiley MullinsTony ScottFlip riskD flip53%Dem.70%Dem. HD-77DeWayne Wynn Jr.Cara Pavalock-D'AmatoFlip riskD flip56%Rep.82%Dem. HD-108Anne WeisbergPat CallahanFlip riskD flip56%Dem.72%Dem. HD-119Alex ArmstrongKathy KennedyFlip riskD flip59%Dem.82%Dem.

HD-62Kim BeckerMark AndersonFlip riskD flip59%Dem.68%Dem. HD-71Stephen Farrucci IIIWilliam PizzutoD flip62%Rep.76%Dem. HD-61James MolTami ZawistowskiD flipD flip63%Dem.81%Dem. HD-48Bob FernandezMark DeCaprioD flipD flip63%Dem.71%Dem. HD-122Mandy KilmartinBen McGortyD flipD flip63%Dem.78%Dem. HD-90David FritzCraig FishbeinD flipD flip63%Dem.82%Dem.

How Connecticut votes

Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.

Fusion voting

Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.