Top-four primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party; the four with the most votes advance to November.
Alaska · 2026 forecast · Pacific region · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Alaska in 2026
Alaska elects a U.S. senator and a governor, its one member of the U.S. House, 10 of 20 members of the State Senate and all 40 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.
On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · Governor · 1 U.S. House seat · 2 legislative chambers.
- U.S. Senate
- D 54%D 56%Mary Peltola vs. Dan S. Sullivan + 1 more
- Governor
- D 76%D 75%Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins vs. Dave Bronson + 2 more
- U.S. House
- 0.2 D · 0.8 R0.3 D · 0.7 RExpected seats of 1
- Alaska State Senate
- R >99%R >99%Chance of control · 10 of 20 seats up
- Alaska House of Representatives
- R >99%R >99%Chance of control · 40 of 40 seats up
Trifecta
Divided government now
No party holds the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.
The State Senate and House of Representatives are run by bipartisan coalitions, so no party controls them now. Each chamber's page gives the chance the coalition (Democrats, independents and its Republican members) keeps a majority, beside the party odds.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- <1%
- Divided
- >99%
- Rep. trifecta
- <1%
Divided government most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance one party wins a trifecta.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- <1%
- Divided
- >99%
- Rep. trifecta
- <1%
Divided government most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance one party wins a trifecta.
Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.
Statewide races
Every race decided by the whole state.
The Alaska environment
The environment Alaska's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
- Alaska state offices vs. the nation
- +1.6± 4.0 (80% range) · 1 polled state race
- Alaska state-office environment
- D+11.11.6 pts more Democratic than the nation
The polled state races behind it
Over time
Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Alaska environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.
U.S. House
1 at-large seat. The national House forecast.
1 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-AL | ● Bill Hill● Nick Begich IIIINCAlso: Eric Hafner (D), Jim McDermott (L) | R+4.3R+4.0 | R+13 | 15 |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. Purple marks an independent the model treats as the main challenger. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.
Alaska Legislature
Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.
Alaska State SenateCoalition
Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%
Avg. 8 D – 12 R seats · 11 for control
Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%
Avg. 8 D – 12 R seats · 11 for control
10 of 20 seats up; 10 holdovers. Bipartisan coalition keeps a majority: >99%. Odds above are for a party majority.
Full forecastAlaska State Senate ratings
1 seat projected to flip: 1 D→Ind.
1 seat projected to flip: 1 D→Ind.
Solid D4
Likely D0
Lean D0
Toss-up0
Lean R0
Likely R0
Solid R6
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Purple: an independent is favored. Every race.
Alaska House of RepresentativesCoalition
Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%
Avg. 17 D – 24 R seats · 21 for control
Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%
Avg. 16 D – 24 R seats · 21 for control
Bipartisan coalition keeps a majority: 73%. Odds above are for a party majority.
Full forecastAlaska House of Representatives ratings
3 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D, 1 Ind.→D.
3 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D, 1 Ind.→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
Solid D13
Toss-up0
Lean R1
Likely R0
Solid R18
Independent or other, settled: HD-14
Solid D11
Lean R0
Likely R1
Solid R17
Independent or other, settled: HD-14
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans, ■ another party). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Purple: an independent is favored. Every race.
Closest legislative races
HD-11Danni HallJulie CoulombeD flip62%Rep.69%Dem. HD-15Denny WellsMia CostelloD flipD flip71%Dem.73%Dem. HD-37Evelynn TrefonBrenda WilsonD flipD flip71%Dem.58%Dem. HD-18Cliff GrohDan SagerD flipFlip risk78%Dem.51%Rep. HD-2Rebecca HimschootKenny Karl Skaflestad90%Ind.79%Ind. HD-31Maxine DibertAimeé Moore91%Dem.68%Dem.
How Alaska votes
Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.
Ranked-choice voting
Voters rank the finalists. If nobody has a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to each voter's next choice. The forecast models the final two-candidate round.
Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.
10 of 20 seats on the ballot; 10 holdovers (5 D, 5 R) serve until a later election.