Maine · 2026 forecast · New England region · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Maine elects a U.S. senator and a governor, all 2 members of the U.S. House, all 35 members of the State Senate and all 151 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.
On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · Governor · 2 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.
U.S. House districts · Maine
Trifecta
Divided government now
No party holds the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.
After the election
Projected change: a Democratic trifecta is most likely (91%).
After the election
Projected change: a Democratic trifecta is most likely (88%).
Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.
Every race decided by the whole state.
The environment Maine's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.
Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Maine environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.
2 districts. The national House forecast.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties.
Portland
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ME-1 | ● Chellie PingreeINC● Ronald Russell | D+28.8D+24.6 | D+23 | 1 | ||
| ME-2Flip riskR flip | ● Matthew Dunlap● Paul LePage | D+0.6R+2.3 | R+9 | 7 |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.
Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.
Maine State Senate
Avg. 22 D – 13 R seats · 18 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 23%
Avg. 22 D – 13 R seats · 18 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 24%
3 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D, 1 Ind.→R. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
3 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D, 1 Ind.→R. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans, ■ another party). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Maine House of Representatives
Avg. 85 D – 66 R seats · 76 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 2%
Avg. 86 D – 65 R seats · 76 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 4%
6 seats projected to flip: 5 R→D, 1 Ind.→D. 5 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
7 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D, 1 Ind.→D. 11 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans, ■ another party). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.
In November, voters rank candidates for U.S. Senate and U.S. House; if nobody has a majority, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to each voter's next choice. Governor and legislative races are decided by plurality. The forecast models the final round for Congress.