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What's the difference?

West Virginia · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the West Virginia House of Delegates?

All 100 seats are on the ballot. 51 seats make a majority. 51 make the majority supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are very likely to control the West Virginia House of Delegates (>99%).

Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
Avg. D seats
12.680% range 9–17
Avg. R seats
87.480% range 83–91
Now
9 D · 91 R100 up this year

Republican supermajority now (91 of 100 seats; 51 needed for majority): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

9 D nowMarks: majority supermajority for each party91 R now

Republicans are very likely to control the West Virginia House of Delegates (>99%).

Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
Avg. D seats
10.080% range 7–13
Avg. R seats
90.080% range 87–93
Now
9 D · 91 R100 up this year

Republican supermajority now (91 of 100 seats; 51 needed for majority): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

9 D nowMarks: majority supermajority for each party91 R now

51 for control
51 for control
  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R

Race ratings

All 100 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 3 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

2 seats projected to flip: 2 D→R. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D7

Likely D1

Lean D2

Toss-up3

Lean R5

Likely R2

Solid R80

Show 74 more

Solid D7

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up1

Lean R5

Likely R6

Solid R81

Show 75 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

HD-55Anthony DasaroJB AkersFlip risk58%Rep.69%Rep. HD-100Jenny ThackerWilliam RidenourFlip risk59%Dem.70%Rep. HD-24Steve WilliamsPatrick LucasFlip risk59%Dem.66%Rep. HD-82Eddie WagonerDavid McCormickD flipFlip risk66%Dem.52%Rep. HD-76Rick GarciaJon DoddsR flip67%Dem.90%Rep. HD-70Shannon WelshPaul J. Howe III68%Rep.91%Rep. HD-99Regina DyerWayne Clark68%Rep.78%Rep. HD-97Lucia ValentineS. Chris Anders72%Rep.85%Rep. HD-44Christina BaisdenBill Roop80%Rep.87%Rep. HD-78Michael WendellGeno Chiarelli80%Rep.90%Rep.

Most likely to flip

HD-82Eddie WagonerDavid McCormickD flipFlip risk66%to flip48%to flip HD-24Steve WilliamsPatrick LucasFlip risk59%to flip34%to flip HD-100Jenny ThackerWilliam RidenourFlip risk59%to flip30%to flip HD-55Anthony DasaroJB AkersFlip risk42%to flip31%to flip HD-76Rick GarciaJon DoddsR flip33%to flip90%to flip HD-70Shannon WelshPaul J. Howe III32%to flip9%to flip HD-99Regina DyerWayne Clark32%to flip22%to flip HD-97Lucia ValentineS. Chris Anders28%to flip15%to flip HD-44Christina BaisdenBill Roop20%to flip13%to flip HD-78Michael WendellGeno Chiarelli20%to flip10%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Simple-majority veto override

A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override most vetoes; budget and spending bills need two-thirds.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats <1%Republicans >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats <1%Republicans >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

51 for D control →D majority →← R majority1020304050
51 for D control →D majority →← R majority1020304050

Every race

100 races, 19 without a contest between the major parties.

100 races
DistrictCandidatesChance of winning (D · R)Avg. marginRatingLeanPolls
HD-1
● Quincy Wilson● Pat McGeehanINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+38.1R+45.9Solid RSolid RR+54—
HD-2
● Daniel Joseph Day● Tony Viola
1%99%
<1%>99%
R+21.6R+31.3Solid RSolid RR+39—
HD-3
● Mike Robinson● Jimmy WillisINCAlso: Dave Cantrell (I)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+27.1R+35.6Solid RSolid RR+43—
HD-4
● Joe Jividen● Derek Ennis
2%98%
1%99%
R+16.2R+25.7Solid RSolid RR+34—
HD-5R flip
● Karen Shuler Stakem● Beth Hinebaugh
83%17%
32%68%
D+7.4R+4.5Likely DLean RR+13—
HD-6
● Cody Cumpston● Don Dewitt
1%99%
<1%>99%
R+20.3R+34.4Solid RSolid RR+42—
HD-7
● Sarah Reggi● Charles SheedyINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+38.5R+51.1Solid RSolid RR+59—
HD-8
● No Democrat● Steven L. Smith
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+68—
HD-9
● No Democrat● Kerry G. Murphy
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+68—
HD-10
● Christopher Jones● Justin Beanard
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+32.0R+40.6Solid RSolid RR+48—
HD-11
● Daniel Miller● Jeff S. Sandy
2%98%
2%98%
R+17.5R+22.6Solid RSolid RR+31—
HD-12
● Dennis V. Rempel● Charles D. HartzogAlso: Stephen Smith (L)
3%97%
3%97%
R+15.8R+19.0Solid RSolid RR+27—
HD-13
● Marley Umensetter● Melissa McCradyAlso: James Hendershot (I)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+33.2R+42.0Solid RSolid RR+50—
HD-14
● Crystal Butcher● Dave FogginINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+41.0R+52.4Solid RSolid RR+60—
HD-15
● No Democrat● Erica MooreINCAlso: Tye Ward (L)
No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot—Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)R+57—
HD-16
● Jason M. Barr● Joe ParsonsINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+43.5R+54.3Solid RSolid RR+61—
HD-17
● Kathryn 'Kat' Weiland● Jonathan PinsonINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+38.0R+46.4Solid RSolid RR+53—
HD-18
● Jonathan Hersman● Jim ButlerINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+38.8R+50.4Solid RSolid RR+57—
HD-19
● Nolan Rose● Kathie Hess CrouseINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+36.7R+44.7Solid RSolid RR+52—
HD-20
● Tonya Patrick Shuler● Sarah DrennanINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+27.3R+35.6Solid RSolid RR+42—
HD-21
● Michael G. Mosteller II● C. D. Caldwell
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+25.9R+37.6Solid RSolid RR+44—
HD-22
● No Democrat● Aaron HolleyINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+51—
HD-23
● Amanda Beth Beach-Burge● Evan WorrellINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+28.5R+35.9Solid RSolid RR+43—
HD-24Flip risk
● Steve Williams● Patrick LucasINC
59%41%
34%66%
D+1.7R+4.0Toss-upLean RR+12—
HD-25
● Sean HornbuckleINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+32—
HD-26
● No Democrat● Matthew RohrbachINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+14—
HD-27
● Ric Griffith● Tyler Bowen
4%96%
1%99%
R+13.6R+24.2Solid RSolid RR+31—
HD-28
● Brooke Smith● Ryan BrowningINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+38.2R+49.3Solid RSolid RR+56—
HD-29
● Wendy Coleman● Henry Dillon
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+52.7R+69.0Solid RSolid RR+73—
HD-30
● Ryan Cledith Elkins● Jeff EldridgeINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+43.1R+56.4Solid RSolid RR+61—
HD-31
● George C. Barker● Margitta MazzocchiINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+50.8R+64.3Solid RSolid RR+69—
HD-32
● Jennifer Bias Bryant● Josh HolsteinINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+39.7R+51.3Solid RSolid RR+56—
HD-33
● Michael B. Browning● Chris TiptonAlso: Leroy DeHart (I)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+46.6R+59.9Solid RSolid RR+64—
HD-34
● Tara 'Babyt' Sexton● Barry C. Marcum
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+52.3R+67.9Solid RSolid RR+72—
HD-35
● Rachael Hawkins-Church● John Morgan
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+53.0R+68.7Solid RSolid RR+74—
HD-36
● Katelynn Jordan● David GreenINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+44.0R+56.7Solid RSolid RR+61—
HD-37
● Treyvon Simmons● Marty GearheartINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+31.1R+40.3Solid RSolid RR+46—
HD-38
● Randa D Faulkner● Joe EllingtonINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+39.6R+51.6Solid RSolid RR+57—
HD-39
● Brianna A Pearcy● Samuel LuskAlso: Ronnie Oakley (NPA)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+45.8R+59.3Solid RSolid RR+65—
HD-40
● Jennifer Gilkerson● Roy CooperINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+40.1R+51.9Solid RSolid RR+57—
HD-41
● Curtis Shaver● Jordan MaynorINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+47.1R+59.3Solid RSolid RR+65—
HD-42
● Courtney Vandall● John JordanINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+49.6R+60.7Solid RSolid RR+67—
HD-43
● No Democrat● Chris ToneyINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+69—
HD-44
● Christina Baisden● Bill RoopINC
20%80%
13%87%
R+5.8R+10.9Lean RLikely RR+17—
HD-45
● Joseph Golden● Eric BrooksINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+37.9R+45.9Solid RSolid RR+53—
HD-46
● Sarah Umberger● Jeff CampbellINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+25.5R+32.8Solid RSolid RR+39—
HD-47
● Sarah Morris● Ray CanterburyINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+30.4R+39.4Solid RSolid RR+46—
HD-48
● Jourdan Deitz● Mackenzie Holdren
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+42.5R+56.4Solid RSolid RR+62—
HD-49
● Byron Tucker Jr.● Newt McCutcheon
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+42.7R+56.3Solid RSolid RR+62—
HD-50
● Mathew Anderson● Bill VestINCAlso: Stacey L. Hensley (CST), Tom Louisos (I), J. Pino (I)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+24.9R+31.5Solid RSolid RR+39—
HD-51
● Colby A. Lopez● Cy Persinger
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+26.6R+38.4Solid RSolid RR+45—
HD-52
● Joyce Brown● Tresa HowellINC
7%93%
5%96%
R+11.2R+17.3Likely RSolid RR+25—
HD-53
● Keena Mullins● Tristan LeavittINC
5%95%
3%97%
R+12.5R+19.5Solid RSolid RR+27—
HD-54
● Mike PushkinINC● No RepublicanAlso: Tara Martinez (I)
No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot—Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)D+40—
HD-55Flip risk
● Anthony Dasaro● JB AkersINC
42%58%
31%69%
R+1.5R+4.7Toss-upLean RR+11—
HD-56
● Kayla YoungINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DR+10—
HD-57
● Hollis LewisINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+5—
HD-58
● Marisa Jackson● Walter HallINC
12%88%
18%82%
R+9.9R+8.8Likely RLikely RR+16—
HD-59
● Howard 'Cookie' Claytor III● Andy ShamblinINC
2%98%
3%97%
R+17.4R+18.8Solid RSolid RR+26—
HD-60
● Lynette Shaw● Dana FerrellINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+30.6R+36.6Solid RSolid RR+44—
HD-61
● Sue Crawford● Dean JeffriesINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+37.4R+45.8Solid RSolid RR+53—
HD-62
● No Democrat● Roger HanshawINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+64—
HD-63
● Kevin Westley Carpenter● Lori DittmanINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+37.4R+45.7Solid RSolid RR+51—
HD-64
● No Democrat● Adam BurkhammerINCAlso: Nate Stansberry (CST)
No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot—Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)R+61—
HD-65
● Mira Tanner-Hughes● Carl Martin
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+38.4R+47.2Solid RSolid RR+54—
HD-66
● Danielle M. Dougherty● Jonathan KyleINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+34.7R+45.3Solid RSolid RR+52—
HD-67
● Mandy Weirich● Les Mallow
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+24.5R+39.6Solid RSolid RR+47—
HD-68
● No Democrat● Chris PhillipsINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+62—
HD-69
● Jocelyn Blackwell● Danny Hamrick
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+37.3R+47.6Solid RSolid RR+55—
HD-70
● Shannon Welsh● Paul J. Howe III
32%68%
9%91%
R+3.3R+13.0Lean RLikely RR+21—
HD-71
● Robert 'Rob' Garcia● Tim McNeely
1%99%
1%99%
R+18.2R+25.0Solid RSolid RR+33—
HD-72
● No Democrat● Clay RileyINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+58—
HD-73
● Kit Ford● Frank Sturm
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+35.4R+45.1Solid RSolid RR+52—
HD-74
● Frankie Delapas● Guy WardINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+27.0R+34.8Solid RSolid RR+42—
HD-75
● Linda Longstreth● Phil MallowINC
3%97%
2%98%
R+14.0R+23.2Solid RSolid RR+31—
HD-76R flip
● Rick GarciaINC● Jon Dodds
67%33%
10%90%
D+3.4R+12.5Lean DLikely RR+20—
HD-77
● Patricia Andrea Bunner● Joe StatlerINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+28.3R+33.5Solid RSolid RR+39—
HD-78
● Michael Wendell● Geno ChiarelliINC
20%80%
10%90%
R+6.0R+12.4Lean RLikely RR+17—
HD-79
● Evan HansenINC● No RepublicanAlso: Paige Rearing (MTN)
No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot—Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)D+37—
HD-80
● Olivia Miller● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+12—
HD-81
● Anitra HamiltonINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+24—
HD-82D flipFlip risk
● Eddie Wagoner● David McCormickINC
66%34%
48%52%
D+3.1R+0.4Lean DToss-upR+5—
HD-83
● No Democrat● George StreetINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+56—
HD-84
● Colin Savage● D. Rolland Jennings
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+43.7R+52.8Solid RSolid RR+59—
HD-85
● Deborah K. Stiles● Alex D. Bosley
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+48.8R+63.0Solid RSolid RR+68—
HD-86
● Betsy Orndoff-Sayers● Steven Schetrom
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+40.4R+51.8Solid RSolid RR+57—
HD-87
● Rebecca Holler● Gary HowellINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+41.1R+50.6Solid RSolid RR+57—
HD-88
● Dorothy L. Kengla● Rick HillenbrandINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+47.5R+59.8Solid RSolid RR+66—
HD-89
● J R Hepworth● David CannonINCAlso: Walter Long (CST)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+43.7R+53.6Solid RSolid RR+59—
HD-90
● Ashley Braner● George MillerINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+39.1R+47.5Solid RSolid RR+54—
HD-91
● David Michaels● Chris Clagett
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+33.1R+42.1Solid RSolid RR+48—
HD-92
● Brad Noll● Michael HiteINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+27.7R+32.9Solid RSolid RR+39—
HD-93
● No Democrat● Michael HornbyINCAlso: Tara McCoy (CST)
No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot—Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)R+20—
HD-94
● Elizabeth Sanchez● Donald BennettINC
1%99%
1%99%
R+21.6R+28.1Solid RSolid RR+34—
HD-95
● Kara Waldeck● Chuck HorstINCAlso: Daniel Walls (CST)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+22.4R+30.2Solid RSolid RR+36—
HD-96
● Lisa Cathro● Katie RoseAlso: Becky Durnmire (CST)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+23.0R+32.5Solid RSolid RR+38—
HD-97
● Lucia Valentine● S. Chris AndersINC
28%72%
15%85%
R+4.0R+10.0Lean RLikely RR+15—
HD-98
● Marta Beck● Joe FunkhouserINC
1%99%
1%99%
R+17.2R+23.3Solid RSolid RR+29—
HD-99
● Regina Dyer● Wayne ClarkINC
32%68%
22%78%
R+3.3R+7.3Lean RLean RR+13—
HD-100Flip risk
● Jenny Thacker● William Ridenour
59%41%
30%70%
D+1.6R+5.0Toss-upLean RR+10—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).