99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Nebraska · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Nebraska Legislature?

24 of 49 seats are on the ballot; the others are elected in alternate years. 25 seats make a majority. 30 make the three-fifths supermajority that can override a veto. November candidates are not yet compiled for 24 races; they are forecast for the seat's current party against a generic challenger.

24 of 24 races have no compiled candidate list yet. Those seats are forecast for their current party against a generic challenger, marked TBD below.

Republicans are very likely to control the Nebraska Legislature (>99%).

Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
Avg. D seats
18.580% range 17–20
Avg. R seats
30.580% range 29–32
Now
15 D · 33 R · 1 other24 up this year

Republican supermajority now (33 of 49 seats; 30 needed for three-fifths): 77% chance it holds · 23% chance it's broken.

15 D nowMarks: three-fifths supermajority for each party33 R now

No party labels appear on the ballot; seats are counted by each member's party registration.

Republicans are very likely to control the Nebraska Legislature (>99%).

Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
Avg. D seats
18.580% range 17–20
Avg. R seats
30.580% range 29–32
Now
15 D · 33 R · 1 other24 up this year

Republican supermajority now (33 of 49 seats; 30 needed for three-fifths): 78% chance it holds · 22% chance it's broken.

15 D nowMarks: three-fifths supermajority for each party33 R now

No party labels appear on the ballot; seats are counted by each member's party registration.

25 for control
25 for control
  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Holdover, not up this year

Race ratings

All 24 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

3 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D, 1 Ind.→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

3 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D, 1 Ind.→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D7

Likely D1

Lean D1

Toss-up1

Lean R1

Likely R1

Solid R12

Solid D6

Likely D2

Lean D1

Toss-up1

Lean R1

Likely R1

Solid R12

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans, ■ another party). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. 24 of 24 races have no candidate list yet; they are forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Nebraska

Omaha

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

LD-4——Flip riskFlip riskTBD50%Dem.51%Dem. LD-14——TBD65%Rep.62%Rep. LD-18——D flipD flipTBD72%Dem.72%Dem.

Most likely to flip

LD-12——D flipD flipTBD86%to flip85%to flip LD-18——D flipD flipTBD72%to flip72%to flip LD-4——Flip riskFlip riskTBD50%to flip51%to flip LD-14——TBD35%to flip38%to flip LD-30——TBD8%to flip10%to flip LD-36——TBD3%to flip5%to flip LD-2——TBD2%to flip3%to flip LD-10——TBD1%to flip6%to flip LD-20——TBD1%to flip4%to flip LD-26——TBD1%to flip4%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

One-chamber legislature

Nebraska has a single legislative chamber of 49 members, called senators.

Nonpartisan ballot

Legislative candidates appear without party labels, and the top two from an open primary advance, so two members of the same party can meet in November. The forecast uses each candidate's registered party.

Filibuster

Ending a filibuster takes 33 of 49 votes, so a party usually needs 33 seats to pass contested bills; overriding a veto takes 30.

Staggered terms

Members serve four-year terms; about half the seats are on the ballot each election.

24 of 49 seats on the ballot; 25 holdovers (9 D, 16 R) serve until a later election.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats <1%Republicans >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats <1%Republicans >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

25 for D control →← R three-fifths14161820222426
25 for D control →← R three-fifths14161820222426

Every race

24 races.

24 races
DistrictCandidatesChance of winning (D · R)Avg. marginRatingLeanPolls
LD-2TBD
● No Democrat● No RepublicanAlso: Dean Helmick (NPA), Caitlin Knutson (NPA)
2%98%
3%97%
R+16.0R+18.8Solid RSolid RR+25—
LD-4Flip riskFlip riskTBD
● No Democrat● No RepublicanAlso: Brad von Gillern (NPA), Cindy Maxwell-Ostdiek (NPA)
50%50%
51%49%
EvenD+0.3Toss-upToss-upR+7—
LD-6TBD
● No Democrat● No RepublicanAlso: Patrick Leahy (NPA), Nate Ostdiek (NPA)
>99%<1%
98%2%
D+25.0D+22.9Solid DSolid DD+16—
LD-8D flipD flipTBD
● No Democrat● No RepublicanAlso: Erin Feichtinger (NPA), Josh Livingston (NPA)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+40.5D+43.5Solid DSolid DD+37—
LD-10TBD
● No Democrat● No RepublicanAlso: Cindy Johnson (NPA), Rebecca Rens (NPA)
99%1%
94%6%
D+19.0D+15.6Solid DLikely DD+8—
LD-12D flipD flipTBD
● No Democrat● No RepublicanAlso: Merv Riepe (NPA), Christy Knorr (NPA)
86%14%
85%15%
D+8.0D+9.9Likely DLikely DD+2—
LD-14TBD
● No Democrat● No RepublicanAlso: Bill Bowes (NPA), SuAnn Witt (NPA)
35%65%
38%62%
R+2.7R+2.9Lean RLean RR+9—
LD-16TBD
● No Democrat● No RepublicanAlso: Ted Japp (NPA), Cindy Chatt (NPA)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+35.2R+41.4Solid RSolid RR+48—
LD-18D flipD flipTBD
● No Democrat● No RepublicanAlso: Taylor Royal (NPA), Jess Goldoni (NPA)
72%28%
72%28%
D+4.3D+5.5Lean DLean DR+2—
LD-20TBD
● No Democrat● No RepublicanAlso: John Fredrickson (NPA), Chris Anderson (NPA)
99%1%
96%4%
D+20.8D+17.7Solid DSolid DD+11—
LD-22TBD
● No Democrat● No RepublicanAlso: Dawson Brunswick (NPA)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+44.3R+52.6Solid RSolid RR+59—
LD-24TBD
● No Democrat● No RepublicanAlso: Jana Hughes (NPA), Dan Winter (NPA)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+38.0R+45.2Solid RSolid RR+52—
LD-26TBD
● No Democrat● No RepublicanAlso: George Dungan III (NPA), Tobias Howard (NPA)
99%1%
96%4%
D+21.5D+18.4Solid DSolid DD+11—
LD-28TBD
● No Democrat● No RepublicanAlso: Patty Pansing Brooks (NPA), Colby Woodson (NPA)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+40.1D+40.8Solid DSolid DD+34—
LD-30TBD
● No Democrat● No RepublicanAlso: Cally Ideus (NPA), Janet Bock (NPA)
8%92%
10%90%
R+10.6R+12.4Likely RLikely RR+20—
LD-32TBD
● No Democrat● No RepublicanAlso: Mark Schoenrock (NPA), Shay Smith (NPA)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+31.4R+37.1Solid RSolid RR+44—
LD-34TBD
● No Democrat● No RepublicanAlso: Loren Lippincott (NPA), Ben Blodgett (NPA)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+39.5R+46.7Solid RSolid RR+54—
LD-36TBD
● No Democrat● No RepublicanAlso: Rick Holdcroft (NPA), Darin Tompkins (NPA)
3%97%
5%95%
R+14.5R+17.1Solid RSolid RR+23—
LD-38TBD
● No Democrat● No RepublicanAlso: Tim Anderson (NPA), Janell Anderson Ehrke (NPA)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+52.0R+61.6Solid RSolid RR+67—
LD-40TBD
● No Democrat● No RepublicanAlso: Barry DeKay (NPA)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+55.5R+65.9Solid RSolid RR+71—
LD-42TBD
● No Democrat● No RepublicanAlso: Shaylee Scranton (NPA), Mike Jacobson (NPA)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+45.2R+53.5Solid RSolid RR+59—
LD-44TBD
● No Democrat● No RepublicanAlso: Teresa Ibach (NPA)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+47.0R+55.7Solid RSolid RR+62—
LD-46TBD
● No Democrat● No RepublicanAlso: Danielle Conrad (NPA)
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+26.7D+24.7Solid DSolid DD+18—
LD-48TBD
● No Democrat● No RepublicanAlso: Brian Hardin (NPA), Tobias Howard (NPA)
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+36.9R+43.9Solid RSolid RR+50—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.