Massachusetts · 2026 forecast · New England region · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Massachusetts in 2026
Massachusetts elects a U.S. senator and a governor, an attorney general, a secretary of state, a treasurer, an auditor, all 9 members of the U.S. House, all 40 members of the State Senate and all 160 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.
On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · Governor · 4 statewide offices · 9 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.
- U.S. Senate
- D >99%D >99%Ed Markey vs. John Deaton + 1 more
- Governor
- D >99%D >99%Maura Healey vs. Mike Minogue
- U.S. House
- 9.0 D · 0.0 R9.0 D · 0.0 RExpected seats of 9
- Massachusetts State Senate
- D >99%D >99%Chance of control · 40 of 40 seats up
- Massachusetts House of Representatives
- D >99%D >99%Chance of control · 160 of 160 seats up
- Attorney General
- D >99%D >99%Andrea Campbell vs. Michael Walsh
- Secretary of State
- D >99%D >99%William F. Galvin vs. Anne Brensley
- Treasurer
- D >99%D >99%Deb Goldberg vs. Elizabeth Dionne
- Auditor
- Solid DSolid DNo Republican on the ballot
U.S. House districts · Massachusetts
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Trifecta
Democratic trifecta now
Democrats hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- >99%
- Divided
- <1%
- Rep. trifecta
- <1%
The Democratic trifecta most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance it is broken.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- >99%
- Divided
- <1%
- Rep. trifecta
- <1%
The Democratic trifecta most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance it is broken.
Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.
Statewide races
Every race decided by the whole state. Statewide offices nationwide.
Statewide offices
Attorney General
Secretary of State
Treasurer
Auditor
Ratings
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). Faded: no major-party opponent.
The Massachusetts environment
The environment Massachusetts's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
- Massachusetts state offices vs. the nation
- +0.0± 4.1 (80% range) · 1 polled state race
- Massachusetts state-office environment
- D+9.6In line with the nation
The polled state races behind it
Over time
Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Massachusetts environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.
U.S. House
9 districts. The national House forecast.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). Faded: no major-party opponent.
Boston
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA-1 | ● Richard NealINC● No RepublicanAlso: Nadia Milleron (I) | No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot | — | D+16 | — | |
| MA-2 | ● Jim McGovernINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+26 | — | |
| MA-3 | ● Lori TrahanINC● Gary Grossi | D+41.3D+31.5 | D+22 | — | ||
| MA-4 | ● Jake AuchinclossINC● Thomas Stalcup | D+41.9D+30.8 | D+22 | — | ||
| MA-5 | ● Katherine ClarkINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+48 | — | |
| MA-6 | ● Dan Koh● Micah Jones | D+35.5D+31.7 | D+23 | — | ||
| MA-7 | ● Ayanna PressleyINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+67 | — | |
| MA-8 | ● Stephen LynchINC● Robert Burke | D+44.9D+38.4 | D+29 | — | ||
| MA-9 | ● Bill KeatingINC● Tyler MacAllister | D+24.1D+19.1 | D+13 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).
Massachusetts General Court
Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.
Massachusetts State Senate
Avg. 35 D – 5 R seats · 21 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds
Avg. 35 D – 5 R seats · 21 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds
1 race without a candidate list yet.
Full forecastMassachusetts State Senate ratings
No seat is projected to change parties. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
Solid D34
Likely D1
Lean D0
Toss-up1
Lean R0
Likely R0
Solid R4
Solid D32
Lean D1
Toss-up1
Lean R0
Likely R0
Solid R4
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Dotted: no candidate list yet; forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger. Every race.
Massachusetts House of Representatives
Avg. 141 D – 19 R seats · 81 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds
Avg. 143 D – 17 R seats · 81 for control · D supermajority now: >99% it holds
Massachusetts House of Representatives ratings
6 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D. 4 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
12 seats projected to flip: 11 R→D, 1 D→R. 3 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Solid D129
Likely D7
Likely R2
Solid R10
Independent or other, settled: 2nd Franklin
Solid D125
Likely D10
Lean D9
Lean R2
Likely R0
Solid R10
Independent or other, settled: 2nd Franklin
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans, ■ another party). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Purple: an independent is favored. Every race.