Kansas · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Kansas House of Representatives?

All 125 seats are on the ballot. 63 seats make a majority. 84 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are very likely to control the Kansas House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 48.680% range 42–55
Avg. R seats: 76.480% range 70–83
Now: 37 D · 88 R125 up this year

Republican supermajority now (88 of 125 seats; 84 needed for two-thirds): 6% chance it holds · 94% chance it's broken.

37 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party88 R now

Republicans are very likely to control the Kansas House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 48.280% range 42–54
Avg. R seats: 76.880% range 71–83
Now: 37 D · 88 R125 up this year

Republican supermajority now (88 of 125 seats; 84 needed for two-thirds): 7% chance it holds · 93% chance it's broken.

37 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party88 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 125 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

10 seats projected to flip: 10 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

8 seats projected to flip: 8 R→D. 4 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D37

Show 31 more

HD-10
HD-16
HD-19
HD-20
HD-21
HD-22
HD-23
HD-24
HD-25
HD-29
HD-31
HD-32
HD-34
HD-35
HD-36
HD-37
HD-44
HD-45
HD-46
HD-48
HD-53
HD-55
HD-57
HD-58
HD-66
HD-83
HD-84
HD-89
HD-95
HD-103
HD-108

Likely D3

Lean D7

Toss-up2

Lean R8

Likely R5

Solid R63

Show 57 more

Solid D34

Show 28 more

Likely D6

Lean D5

Toss-up5

Lean R7

Likely R7

Solid R61

Show 55 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Kansas

Kansas City

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

HD-41Jeff PittmanAnn ReinhartFlip risk56%Rep.86%Rep. HD-78Tim LundbergRobyn R. EssexFlip riskFlip risk57%Dem.58%Dem. HD-39Zach MaierAngela StiensD flipFlip risk60%Dem.52%Dem. HD-8Megan PhillipsChris CroftFlip risk64%Rep.55%Rep. HD-121Kelsey StockThomas PalenskeD flipFlip risk65%Dem.53%Dem. HD-88Candace LandersSandy PickertD flipD flip65%Dem.67%Dem. HD-85Mackenzi TrueloveSteven Brunk66%Rep.60%Rep. HD-52Toni ScaliaJesse Borjon66%Rep.62%Rep. HD-96Jessica MaldonadoTom Kessler68%Rep.66%Rep. HD-3Isaiah HarrisD J Perry76%Rep.83%Rep.

Most likely to flip

HD-67Brenda BandyStacy KohlmeierD flipD flip93%to flip88%to flip HD-28Bryan MouberAlex. N BergmanD flipD flip93%to flip81%to flip HD-14Sherry GieblerCharlotte EsauD flipD flip80%to flip73%to flip HD-15Allison HouglandLauren N. BohiD flipD flip79%to flip68%to flip HD-33Emily BlanksCarolyn CaiharrD flipD flip78%to flip73%to flip HD-30Amelia WiederaendersLaura WilliamsD flipD flip78%to flip83%to flip HD-60Maddison D. GloverMark SchreiberD flipD flip76%to flip76%to flip HD-88Candace LandersSandy PickertD flipD flip65%to flip67%to flip HD-121Kelsey StockThomas PalenskeD flipFlip risk65%to flip53%to flip HD-39Zach MaierAngela StiensD flipFlip risk60%to flip52%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

125 races, 40 without a contest between the major parties.

125 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
HD-1	● No Democrat● Dale HelwigINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+54	—
HD-2	● Avery Rowland● Dan Muter	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+27.9R+36.2	Solid RSolid R	R+42	—
HD-3	● Isaiah Harris● D J Perry	24%76% 17%83%	R+4.9R+8.9	Lean RLikely R	R+15	—
HD-4	● No Democrat● Rick JamesINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+58	—
HD-5	● Henry Johns● Courtney SappingtonINC	2%98% 3%97%	R+16.4R+19.9	Solid RSolid R	R+25	—
HD-6	● Frank Henderson● Samantha M. Poetter ParshallINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+30.3R+35.9	Solid RSolid R	R+41	—
HD-7	● Taylor Moreland● Thomas Douglas Allen	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+24.2R+29.3	Solid RSolid R	R+35	—
HD-8Flip risk	● Megan Phillips● Chris CroftINC	36%64% 45%55%	R+2.8R+1.2	Lean RToss-up	R+7	—
HD-9	● No Democrat● Fred GardnerINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+51	—
HD-10	● Suzanne WikleINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+55	—
HD-11	● William Kendall● Ron BryceINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+37.2R+42.4	Solid RSolid R	R+48	—
HD-12	● Pete Ferrell● Marci Laffen	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+49.9R+60.5	Solid RSolid R	R+65	—
HD-13	● Mark Remmert● Duane DrogeINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+45.5R+52.8	Solid RSolid R	R+58	—
HD-14D flipD flip	● Sherry Giebler● Charlotte EsauINC	80%20% 73%27%	D+6.2D+6.0	Likely DLean D	Even	—
HD-15D flipD flip	● Allison Hougland● Lauren N. BohiINC	79%21% 68%32%	D+5.6D+4.4	Lean DLean D	R+2	—
HD-16	● Linda FeatherstonINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+7	—
HD-17	● Jo Ella HoyeINC● Jim Eschrich	>99%<1% 96%4%	D+26.2D+17.9	Solid DSolid D	D+12	—
HD-18	● Cindy NeighborINC● Robert Whitman	99%1% 95%5%	D+20.9D+16.0	Solid DLikely D	D+10	—
HD-19	● Stephanie Sawyer ClaytonINC● Mark Hermes	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+32.8D+31.0	Solid DSolid D	D+26	—
HD-20	● Mari-Lynn PoskinINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+12	—
HD-21	● Jerry StogsdillINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+31	—
HD-22	● Reed Krewson● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+24	—
HD-23	● Susan RuizINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+22	—
HD-24	● Jarrod OusleyINC● Scott Speicker	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+36.9D+36.1	Solid DSolid D	D+30	—
HD-25	● Rui XuINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+33	—
HD-26	● Laura Johnson● Chip VanHoudenINC	11%89% 24%76%	R+9.6R+6.5	Likely RLean R	R+12	—
HD-27	● Sara Kiewiet● Sean E. TarwaterINC	21%79% 29%71%	R+6.2R+5.2	Lean RLean R	R+11	—
HD-28D flipD flip	● Bryan Mouber● Alex. N Bergman	93%7% 81%19%	D+11.0D+8.5	Likely DLikely D	D+3	—
HD-29	● Heather MeyerINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+18	—
HD-30D flipD flip	● Amelia Wiederaenders● Laura WilliamsINC	78%22% 83%17%	D+5.8D+9.0	Lean DLikely D	D+3	—
HD-31	● Emily Hane● Dennis Grindel	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+45.3D+47.3	Solid DSolid D	D+42	—
HD-32	● Pam CurtisINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+48	—
HD-33D flipD flip	● Emily Blanks● Carolyn CaiharrINC	78%22% 73%27%	D+5.5D+5.6	Lean DLean D	Even	—
HD-34	● Valdenia C. WinnINC● CeCe Harlin	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+64.5D+69.3	Solid DSolid D	D+65	—
HD-35	● Wanda Brownlee PaigeINC● Alex Sanchez	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+62.8D+68.3	Solid DSolid D	D+64	—
HD-36	● Lynn MeltonINC● Brian Dickason	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+27.3D+24.4	Solid DSolid D	D+19	—
HD-37	● Melissa M OropezaINC● Connie Jo Henry	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+29.6D+26.4	Solid DSolid D	D+21	—
HD-38	● Richard Paz● Timothy H. JohnsonINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+19.7R+22.1	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
HD-39D flipFlip risk	● Zach Maier● Angela StiensINC	60%40% 52%48%	D+1.9D+0.5	Lean DToss-up	R+5	—
HD-40	● Mika Stilwell● David BuehlerINC	8%92% 24%76%	R+11.5R+6.4	Likely RLean R	R+12	—
HD-41Flip risk	● Jeff Pittman● Ann Reinhart	44%56% 14%86%	R+1.2R+10.2	Toss-upLikely R	R+15	—
HD-42	● Brandon Wendt● Lance W. NeellyINC	4%96% 8%92%	R+14.0R+13.6	Solid RLikely R	R+18	—
HD-43	● Kristen Schultz● William (Bill) SuttonINC	3%97% 8%92%	R+14.1R+14.1	Solid RLikely R	R+21	—
HD-44	● Barbara W. BallardINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+50	—
HD-45	● Mike AmyxINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+40	—
HD-46	● Brooklynne MosleyINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+71	—
HD-47	● Mary T. Williams● Paula Newell Ellis	1%99% 1%99%	R+18.1R+23.7	Solid RSolid R	R+29	—
HD-48	● Dan OsmanINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+6	—
HD-49	● Nikki McDonaldINC● Tricia Sinclair	96%4% 81%19%	D+14.4D+8.2	Solid DLikely D	D+2	—
HD-50	● No Democrat● Kyle McNortonINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+28	—
HD-51	● No Democrat● Megan D. SteeleINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+39	—
HD-52	● Toni Scalia● Jesse BorjonINC	34%66% 38%62%	R+2.9R+2.8	Lean RLean R	R+8	—
HD-53	● Kirk HaskinsINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+9	—
HD-54	● Chris Tanner● Ken CorbetINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+24.8R+28.0	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
HD-55	● Tobias SchlingensiepenINC● Lanell Griffith	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+35.7D+32.1	Solid DSolid D	D+27	—
HD-56	● Virgil WeigelINC● Elvin Fajardo	99%1% 93%7%	D+18.4D+14.2	Solid DLikely D	D+9	—
HD-57	● John AlcalaINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+13	—
HD-58	● Alexis SimmonsINC● Michael H Mathewson	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+33.9D+32.8	Solid DSolid D	D+28	—
HD-59	● Michael Lewis● Rebecca SchmoeINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+30.0R+34.5	Solid RSolid R	R+40	—
HD-60D flipD flip	● Maddison D. Glover● Mark SchreiberINC	76%24% 76%24%	D+5.0D+6.6	Lean DLean D	Even	—
HD-61	● No Democrat● Francis AwerkampINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+42	—
HD-62	● No Democrat● Sean M. WillcottINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+59	—
HD-63	● Adam Booth● Allen ReavisINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+33.0R+35.1	Solid RSolid R	R+41	—
HD-64	● No Democrat● Lewis (Bill) BloomINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+53	—
HD-65	● No Democrat● Shawn ChaunceyINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+13	—
HD-66	● Sydney CarlinINC● Noah Perry	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+39.3D+32.7	Solid DSolid D	D+27	—
HD-67D flipD flip	● Brenda Bandy● Stacy Kohlmeier	93%7% 88%12%	D+10.8D+11.4	Likely DLikely D	D+6	—
HD-68	● No Democrat● Nathan (Nate) ButlerINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+36	—
HD-69	● Miranda Bachman● Clarke SandersINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+21.3R+27.7	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
HD-70	● Kylie Christine Kilmer● Greg H WilsonINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+40.1R+50.3	Solid RSolid R	R+56	—
HD-71	● Jerry Lonergan● Steven K. HoweINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+24.3R+24.0	Solid RSolid R	R+30	—
HD-72	● Matthew L Smith● Avery AndersonINC	2%98% 5%95%	R+15.3R+16.6	Solid RSolid R	R+23	—
HD-73	● Bobby Joe Robertson Jr● Lori Shultz	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+26.9R+32.0	Solid RSolid R	R+39	—
HD-74	● Michele L. Ediger● Mike KingINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+25.6R+28.4	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
HD-75	● Randy Quinn● Tyler Coats	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+35.1R+41.9	Solid RSolid R	R+47	—
HD-76	● David A. Claridge● Russel Stukey	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+37.2R+43.2	Solid RSolid R	R+49	—
HD-77	● Troy Nicks● Kristey S. WilliamsINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+36.6R+40.4	Solid RSolid R	R+46	—
HD-78Flip riskFlip risk	● Tim Lundberg● Robyn R. EssexINC	57%43% 58%42%	D+1.4D+2.0	Toss-upToss-up	R+4	—
HD-79	● Siobhan McIntyre● Webster T RothINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+28.4R+32.9	Solid RSolid R	R+39	—
HD-80	● No Democrat● Bill RhileyINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+40	—
HD-81	● Kayden Bennett● Blake CarpenterINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+22.1R+21.6	Solid RSolid R	R+28	—
HD-82	● Kyle Beauchamp● Leah HowellINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+23.6R+28.1	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
HD-83	● Brandon J. Whipple● Zachary Werhan	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+24.5D+24.0	Solid DSolid D	D+18	—
HD-84	● Bonita Gooch● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+48	—
HD-85	● Mackenzi Truelove● Steven BrunkINC	34%66% 40%60%	R+3.0R+2.4	Lean RToss-up	R+8	—
HD-86	● Abi BoatmanINC● Kevin Thompson	99%1% 97%3%	D+20.1D+19.7	Solid DSolid D	D+14	—
HD-87	● No Democrat● Susan O EstesINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+6	—
HD-88D flipD flip	● Candace Landers● Sandy PickertINC	65%35% 67%33%	D+2.8D+4.2	Lean DLean D	R+1	—
HD-89	● Carol Brewer● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+29	—
HD-90	● Amy Warhurst● Steve HuebertINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+32.2R+39.2	Solid RSolid R	R+45	—
HD-91	● Velma Davis● Emil M. BergquistINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+21.4R+24.4	Solid RSolid R	R+31	—
HD-92	● John CarmichaelINC● Vail Fruechting	>99%<1% 97%3%	D+27.3D+18.8	Solid DSolid D	D+13	—
HD-93	● Eli Rueda-Vega● Brian BergkampINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+37.6R+44.9	Solid RSolid R	R+51	—
HD-94	● No Democrat● Leo DelperdangINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+28	—
HD-95	● Tom SawyerINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+1	—
HD-96	● Jessica Maldonado● Tom KesslerINC	32%68% 34%66%	R+3.4R+3.8	Lean RLean R	R+10	—
HD-97	● Rhashanna Grant● Nick HoheiselINC	4%96% 4%96%	R+13.6R+16.9	Solid RSolid R	R+23	—
HD-98	● Erika L. Lewis● Cyndi HowertonINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+18.5R+22.8	Solid RSolid R	R+29	—
HD-99	● Mark B Barlow● Susan HumphriesINC	<1%>99% 2%98%	R+22.7R+21.5	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
HD-100	● Amanda Mogoi● Al Jirak	7%93% 6%94%	R+10.8R+15.1	Likely RLikely R	R+21	—
HD-101	● Mary Ann Harmon● Kevin D. O'Brien	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+38.3R+45.3	Solid RSolid R	R+51	—
HD-102	● Jason Probst● Kyler SweelyINC	21%79% 15%85%	R+5.7R+10.3	Lean RLikely R	R+16	—
HD-103	● Angela MartinezINC● Jordan Chessher	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+39.2D+33.5	Solid DSolid D	D+28	—
HD-104	● Lynnette Krieger-Zook● Randy Parks	1%99% <1%>99%	R+22.4R+32.2	Solid RSolid R	R+38	—
HD-105	● John Burke● Jill Ann WardINC	16%84% 22%78%	R+7.0R+7.1	Likely RLean R	R+13	—
HD-106	● No Democrat● Lisa M. MoserINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+62	—
HD-107	● Cheri Koochel● Dawn WolfINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+42.6R+50.0	Solid RSolid R	R+56	—
HD-108	● Brandon WoodardINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+16	—
HD-109	● No Democrat● Troy L. WaymasterINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+65	—
HD-110	● Mark Schaukowitch● Cody Ward	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+55.3R+67.1	Solid RSolid R	R+71	—
HD-111	● Melanie McMillan● Barb WasingerINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+30.6R+34.3	Solid RSolid R	R+40	—
HD-112	● Rhys Froetschner● Sherri BrantleyINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+43.1R+51.8	Solid RSolid R	R+58	—
HD-113	● Jo Ann Roth● Brett FairchildINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+44.8R+53.9	Solid RSolid R	R+59	—
HD-114	● Alan Albers● Kevin D. SchwertfegerINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+43.1R+51.2	Solid RSolid R	R+57	—
HD-115	● No Democrat● Gary L. WhiteINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+64	—
HD-116	● Nathan Bales● Kyle D. HoffmanINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+51.3R+61.1	Solid RSolid R	R+66	—
HD-117	● Brandon Holland● Adam TurkINC	24%76% 32%68%	R+5.1R+4.4	Lean RLean R	R+10	—
HD-118	● No Democrat● Jim MinnixINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+76	—
HD-119	● No Democrat● Jason W. GoetzINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+17	—
HD-120	● No Democrat● Adam SmithINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+72	—
HD-121D flipFlip risk	● Kelsey Stock● Thomas Palenske	65%35% 53%47%	D+2.7D+0.8	Lean DToss-up	R+5	—
HD-122	● Amy Arteaga (Write-in)● Lon E. PishnyINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+42.0R+47.0	Solid RSolid R	R+52	—
HD-123	● Becca Burnfin● Bob LewisINC	5%95% 9%91%	R+12.7R+13.3	Likely RLikely R	R+19	—
HD-124	● No Democrat● Marty LongINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+67	—
HD-125	● No Democrat● Shannon G FrancisINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+33	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).