Ohio · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Ohio State Senate?

17 of 33 seats are on the ballot; the others are elected in alternate years. 17 seats make a majority. 20 make the three-fifths supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are very likely to control the Ohio State Senate (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 10.980% range 9–13
Avg. R seats: 22.180% range 20–24
Now: 9 D · 23 R · 1 vacant17 up this year

Republican supermajority now (23 of 33 seats; 20 needed for three-fifths): 94% chance it holds · 6% chance it's broken.

9 D nowMarks: three-fifths supermajority for each party23 R now

Republicans are very likely to control the Ohio State Senate (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 10.680% range 9–12
Avg. R seats: 22.480% range 21–24
Now: 9 D · 23 R · 1 vacant17 up this year

Republican supermajority now (23 of 33 seats; 20 needed for three-fifths): 98% chance it holds · 2% chance it's broken.

9 D nowMarks: three-fifths supermajority for each party23 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Holdover, not up this year

Race ratings

All 17 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D.

No seat is projected to change parties. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D6

Likely D0

Lean D1

SD-27flip

Toss-up1

SD-13

Lean R2

Likely R2

Solid R5

Solid D6

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up1

SD-27risk

Lean R2

Likely R4

Solid R4

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Ohio

Cleveland

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

SD-13Joe MillerGayle Manning51%Rep.64%Rep. SD-27Mike RobertoSteve DemetriouD flipFlip risk61%Dem.55%Dem. SD-3Stacie BakerMichele Reynolds65%Rep.65%Rep. SD-7Cara JacobZac Haines78%Rep.84%Rep.

Most likely to flip

SD-27Mike RobertoSteve DemetriouD flipFlip risk61%to flip55%to flip SD-3Stacie BakerMichele Reynolds35%to flip35%to flip SD-7Cara JacobZac Haines22%to flip16%to flip SD-19Janet WagnerRyan Rivers13%to flip7%to flip SD-29Thomas WestJane Timken11%to flip10%to flip SD-33Michael KripchakAl Cutrona3%to flip6%to flip SD-5Jeffrey HarrisPhil Plummer<1%to flip<1%to flip SD-31Laura SirotAl Landis<1%to flip<1%to flip SD-11Paula Hicks-HudsonJames Nowak<1%to flip1%to flip SD-25Bill DeMoraDon Roberts<1%to flip<1%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Staggered Senate

Senators serve four-year terms; about half the seats are on the ballot each election.

17 of 33 seats on the ballot; 16 holdovers (3 D, 13 R) serve until a later election.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

17 races, 1 without a contest between the major parties.

17 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
SD-1	● No Democrat● Craig Riedel	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+49	—
SD-3	● Stacie Baker● Michele ReynoldsINC	35%65% 35%65%	R+2.8R+3.5	Lean RLean R	R+10	—
SD-5	● Jeffrey Harris● Phil Plummer	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+25.6R+29.5	Solid RSolid R	R+36	—
SD-7	● Cara Jacob● Zac Haines	22%78% 16%84%	R+5.5R+9.3	Lean RLikely R	R+17	—
SD-9	● Catherine IngramINC● Linda Matthews	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+55.1D+56.6	Solid DSolid D	D+50	—
SD-11	● Paula Hicks-HudsonINC● James NowakAlso: Kenneth Sharp (L)	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+31.1D+28.6	Solid DSolid D	D+22	—
SD-13	● Joe Miller● Gayle Manning	49%51% 36%64%	R+0.2R+3.4	Toss-upLean R	R+10	—
SD-15	● Latyna Humphrey● Joseph Healy	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+62.8D+64.4	Solid DSolid D	D+59	—
SD-17	● Brian Deer● Shane WilkinINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+40.2R+45.5	Solid RSolid R	R+51	—
SD-19	● Janet Wagner● Ryan Rivers	13%87% 7%93%	R+8.2R+14.5	Likely RLikely R	R+21	—
SD-21	● Kent SmithINC● Mikhail Alterman	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+68.9D+72.7	Solid DSolid D	D+68	—
SD-23	● Bride Rose Sweeney● Robert Dintaman	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+49.1D+49.3	Solid DSolid D	D+42	—
SD-25	● Bill DeMoraINC● Don Roberts	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+40.7D+39.9	Solid DSolid D	D+33	—
SD-27D flipFlip risk	● Mike Roberto● Steve Demetriou	61%39% 55%45%	D+1.9D+1.1	Lean DToss-up	R+5	—
SD-29	● Thomas West● Jane TimkenINCAlso: Zach Moore (L)	11%89% 10%90%	R+9.0R+12.2	Likely RLikely R	R+20	—
SD-31	● Laura Sirot● Al LandisINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+31.4R+35.7	Solid RSolid R	R+43	—
SD-33	● Michael Kripchak● Al CutronaINC	3%97% 6%94%	R+14.0R+15.8	Solid RLikely R	R+23	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).