Arkansas · 2026 forecast · Upper South region · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Arkansas in 2026

Arkansas elects a U.S. senator and a governor, a lieutenant governor, an attorney general, a secretary of state, a treasurer, an auditor, all 4 members of the U.S. House, 17 of 35 members of the State Senate and all 100 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.

On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · Governor · 5 statewide offices · 4 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.

U.S. Senate: R 95%R 94%Hallie Shoffner vs. Tom Cotton
Governor: R 91%R 91%Fredrick Love vs. Sarah Huckabee Sanders + 1 more
U.S. House: 0.2 D · 3.8 R0.3 D · 3.7 RExpected seats of 4
Arkansas State Senate: R >99%R >99%Chance of control · 17 of 35 seats up
Arkansas House of Representatives: R >99%R >99%Chance of control · 100 of 100 seats up
Lieutenant Governor: Solid RSolid RNo Democrat on the ballot
Attorney General: Solid RSolid RTim Griffin unopposed
Secretary of State: R >99%R 96%Kelly Grappe vs. Kim Hammer
Treasurer: Solid RSolid RForecast without candidates
Auditor: Solid RSolid RDennis Milligan unopposed

Trifecta
Statewide
Environment
U.S. House
General Assembly
Election rules

U.S. House districts · Arkansas

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Trifecta

Republican trifecta now

Republicans hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.

After the election

Dem. trifecta: <1%
Divided: 9%
Rep. trifecta: 91%

The Republican trifecta most likely continues (91%); 9% chance it is broken.

After the election

Dem. trifecta: <1%
Divided: 9%
Rep. trifecta: 91%

The Republican trifecta most likely continues (91%); 9% chance it is broken.

Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.

Statewide races

Every race decided by the whole state. Statewide offices nationwide.

U.S. Senate

Solid RLikely R

● Hallie Shoffner● Tom CottonINC

5%95%

6%94%

Governor

Likely RLikely R

● Fredrick Love● Sarah Huckabee SandersINCAlso: Colt Shelby (L)

9%91%

Statewide offices

Lieutenant Governor

Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)

● No Democrat● Leslie RutledgeINCAlso: Michael Kalagias (L)

No Democrat on the ballot

Attorney General

Uncontested RUncontested R

● No Democrat● Tim GriffinINC

Republican unopposed

Secretary of State

Solid RSolid R

● Kelly Grappe● Kim Hammer

<1%>99%

4%96%

Treasurer

Uncontested RUncontested R

● No candidate● No candidate

Republican unopposed

Auditor

Uncontested RUncontested R

● No Democrat● Dennis MilliganINC

Republican unopposed

Ratings

Likely R1

Governor

Solid R6

Likely R2

Solid R5

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). Faded: no major-party opponent.

The Arkansas environment

The environment Arkansas's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.

National environment: D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
Arkansas state offices vs. the nation: +0.4± 4.2 (80% range) · 1 polled state race
Arkansas state-office environment: D+9.90.4 pts more Democratic than the nation

The polled state races behind it

Over time

Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Arkansas environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.

U.S. House

4 districts. The national House forecast.

Likely R1

AR-2

Solid R3

Lean R1

AR-2

Solid R3

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans).

Little Rock

4 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
AR-1	● Terri Green● Rick CrawfordINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+37.1R+37.3	Solid RSolid R	R+45	—
AR-2	● Chris Jones● French HillINC	19%81% 22%78%	R+5.9R+6.7	Likely RLean R	R+15	—
AR-3	● Robb Ryerse● Steve WomackINC	1%99% 4%96%	R+18.3R+16.9	Solid RSolid R	R+26	—
AR-4	● James Russell● Bruce WestermanINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+31.9R+30.8	Solid RSolid R	R+39	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).

Arkansas General Assembly

Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.

Arkansas State Senate

Avg. 7 D – 28 R seats · 18 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds

Avg. 7 D – 28 R seats · 18 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds

17 of 35 seats up; 18 holdovers.

Full forecast

Arkansas State Senate ratings

1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D.

Solid D4

Likely D1

SD-13flip

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R1

SD-27

Solid R11

Solid D3

Likely D1

SD-9

Lean D1

SD-13flip

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R1

SD-27

Solid R11

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.

Arkansas House of Representatives

Avg. 27 D – 73 R seats · 51 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds

Avg. 24 D – 76 R seats · 51 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds

Full forecast

Arkansas House of Representatives ratings

6 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D. 3 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

3 seats projected to flip: 3 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D19

Likely D4

Lean D3

Toss-up3

Lean R1

HD-11

Likely R4

Solid R66

Solid D16

Likely D2

Lean D5

Toss-up2

Lean R4

Likely R4

Solid R67

Closest legislative races

HD-15Daniel HoltmeyerJohn P. CarrFlip risk54%Rep.71%Rep. HD-55Cynthia NationsMatthew BrownFlip risk54%Rep.67%Rep. HD-34Michael MiddlebrookJoey L. CarrFlip riskFlip risk55%Dem.51%Rep. HD-10Jacob AllenMindy McAlindonD flip61%Dem.66%Rep. HD-13Mitchell SmithScott RichardsonD flip62%Dem.62%Rep. HD-19Jamie AtkinsonSteve UngerD flipFlip risk68%Dem.51%Dem.

HD-11Rey HernandezRebecca Burkes76%Rep.87%Rep. SD-13Allison SweatmanBrandon AchorD flipD flip81%Dem.69%Dem. SD-27Eduardo GuzmanJustin Boyd82%Rep.91%Rep. HD-67Andrew Cade EberlyKarilyn BrownD flipD flip85%Dem.73%Dem. HD-32Erika AskelandJack Ladyman85%Rep.91%Rep. HD-71Cassandra MayesStephen BrightD flipD flip85%Dem.72%Dem.

How Arkansas votes

Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.

Staggered Senate

Senators serve four-year terms, with one two-year term after each redistricting, so about half the seats are on the ballot each election.

17 of 35 seats on the ballot; 18 holdovers (2 D, 16 R) serve until a later election.

Simple-majority veto override

A majority of the members of each chamber can override the governor's veto.