99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Rhode Island · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Rhode Island State Senate?

All 38 seats are on the ballot. 20 seats make a majority. 23 make the three-fifths supermajority that can override a veto.

Democrats are very likely to control the Rhode Island State Senate (>99%).

Democrats
>99%
chance of control
Republicans
<1%
Avg. D seats
35.180% range 34–36
Avg. R seats
2.980% range 2–4
Now
34 D · 4 R38 up this year

Democratic supermajority now (34 of 38 seats; 23 needed for three-fifths): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

34 D nowMarks: three-fifths supermajority for each party4 R now

Democrats are very likely to control the Rhode Island State Senate (>99%).

Democrats
>99%
chance of control
Republicans
<1%
Avg. D seats
34.880% range 34–36
Avg. R seats
3.280% range 2–4
Now
34 D · 4 R38 up this year

Democratic supermajority now (34 of 38 seats; 23 needed for three-fifths): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

34 D nowMarks: three-fifths supermajority for each party4 R now

20 for control
20 for control
  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R

Race ratings

All 38 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

3 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D, 1 D→R.

Solid D33

Show 27 more

Likely D0

Lean D2

Toss-up1

Lean R0

Likely R0

Solid R2

Solid D33

Show 27 more

Likely D1

Lean D1

Toss-up0

Lean R1

Likely R0

Solid R2

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Rhode Island

Providence

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

SD-34Samantha R. WilcoxElaine J. MorganFlip riskD flip55%Dem.62%Dem. SD-17Nelly BurdetteThomas J. PaolinoD flipD flip72%Dem.88%Dem. SD-33Leonidas Peter RaptakisJames P. PiersonR flip80%Dem.67%Rep.

Most likely to flip

SD-17Nelly BurdetteThomas J. PaolinoD flipD flip72%to flip88%to flip SD-34Samantha R. WilcoxElaine J. MorganFlip riskD flip55%to flip62%to flip SD-33Leonidas Peter RaptakisJames P. PiersonR flip20%to flip67%to flip SD-38Victoria GuWestin J. Place<1%to flip2%to flip SD-5Samuel W. BellWilliam D. Connell, Jr.<1%to flip<1%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats >99%Republicans <1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats >99%Republicans <1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

20 for D control →D three-fifths →20253035
20 for D control →D three-fifths →20253035

Every race

38 races, 33 without a contest between the major parties.

38 races
DistrictCandidatesChance of winning (D · R)Avg. marginRatingLeanPolls
SD-1
● Jacob BissaillonINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+55—
SD-2
● Ana B. QuezadaINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+55—
SD-3
● Samuel D. ZurierINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+60—
SD-4
● Stefano V. FamigliettiINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+14—
SD-5
● Samuel W. BellINC● William D. Connell, Jr.
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+58.9D+63.9Solid DSolid DD+55—
SD-6
● Tiara T. MackINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+57—
SD-7
● Frank A. CicconeINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+48—
SD-8
● Lori UrsoINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+34—
SD-9
● John BurkeINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DEven—
SD-10
● Walter S. Felag, Jr.INC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+14—
SD-11
● Linda L. UjifusaINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+22—
SD-12
● Louis DiPalmaINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+21—
SD-13
● Dawn EuerINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+43—
SD-14
● Valarie Jean LawsonINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+25—
SD-15
● Meghan E. KallmanINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+43—
SD-16
● Jonathon AcostaINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+36—
SD-17D flipD flip
● Nelly Burdette● Thomas J. PaolinoINC
72%28%
88%12%
D+4.4D+11.2Lean DLikely DD+1—
SD-18
● Robert Britto● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+28—
SD-19
● Ryan W. PearsonINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+9—
SD-20
● Brian J. ThompsonINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+3—
SD-21
● No Democrat● Gordon E. RogersINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+16—
SD-22
● David P. TikoianINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DR+3—
SD-23
● No Democrat● Jessica de la CruzINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+20—
SD-24
● Melissa MurrayINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+1—
SD-25
● Andrew R. DimitriINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DR+17—
SD-26
● Todd M. PatalanoINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+5—
SD-27
● Hanna M. GalloINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+7—
SD-28
● Lammis J. VargasINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+33—
SD-29
● Peter A. Appollonio, Jr.INC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+8—
SD-30
● Mark McKenneyINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+9—
SD-31
● Matthew L. LaMountainINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+11—
SD-32
● Pamela J. LauriaINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+33—
SD-33R flip
● Leonidas Peter RaptakisINC● James P. Pierson
80%20%
33%67%
D+6.8R+4.3Lean DLean RR+12—
SD-34Flip riskD flip
● Samantha R. Wilcox● Elaine J. MorganINC
55%45%
62%38%
D+0.8D+2.7Toss-upLean DR+4—
SD-35
● Bridget G. ValverdeINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+23—
SD-36
● Alana M. DiMarioINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+21—
SD-37
● Virginia Susan Sosnowski● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+35—
SD-38
● Victoria GuINC● Westin J. Place
>99%<1%
98%2%
D+23.8D+20.4Solid DSolid DD+13—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).