Oklahoma · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Oklahoma House of Representatives?

All 101 seats are on the ballot. 51 seats make a majority. 68 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are very likely to control the Oklahoma House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 23.980% range 21–27
Avg. R seats: 77.180% range 74–80
Now: 18 D · 81 R · 2 vacant101 up this year

Republican supermajority now (81 of 101 seats; 68 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

18 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party81 R now

Republicans are very likely to control the Oklahoma House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 21.580% range 19–24
Avg. R seats: 79.580% range 77–82
Now: 18 D · 81 R · 2 vacant101 up this year

Republican supermajority now (81 of 101 seats; 68 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

18 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party81 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 101 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

2 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D. 3 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

No seat is projected to change parties. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D20

Show 14 more

Likely D0

Lean D2

Toss-up3

Lean R2

Likely R2

Solid R72

Show 66 more

Solid D16

Show 10 more

Likely D3

Lean D1

HD-79

Toss-up2

Lean R3

Likely R4

Solid R72

Show 66 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Oklahoma

Oklahoma City

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

HD-83Dalton GauEric RobertsFlip risk54%Dem.70%Rep. HD-62Blake MunozDaniel PaeFlip riskFlip risk55%Dem.56%Rep. HD-84Jeffrey PerezTammy WestFlip risk59%Rep.74%Rep. HD-64Kathy SuttlesLouis JacksonD flip61%Dem.72%Rep. HD-81Megan Hornbeek AllenTroy Talley64%Rep.90%Rep. HD-95Tegan MaloneMax WolfleyD flipFlip risk67%Dem.57%Rep. HD-75Joe WatkinsT. J. Marti69%Rep.84%Rep.

Most likely to flip

HD-95Tegan MaloneMax WolfleyD flipFlip risk67%to flip43%to flip HD-64Kathy SuttlesLouis JacksonD flip61%to flip28%to flip HD-62Blake MunozDaniel PaeFlip riskFlip risk55%to flip44%to flip HD-83Dalton GauEric RobertsFlip risk54%to flip30%to flip HD-84Jeffrey PerezTammy WestFlip risk41%to flip26%to flip HD-81Megan Hornbeek AllenTroy Talley36%to flip10%to flip HD-75Joe WatkinsT. J. Marti31%to flip16%to flip HD-82Travis HeaddNicole Miller11%to flip8%to flip HD-90Kymberly WardEmily Gise10%to flip6%to flip HD-96Ashtyn SmithPreston Stinson4%to flip3%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

101 races, 50 without a contest between the major parties.

101 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
HD-1	● No Democrat● Chris White	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+69	—
HD-2	● No Democrat● Jim OlsenINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+61	—
HD-3	● Steve Glinski● Rick WestINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+45.9R+59.8	Solid RSolid R	R+64	—
HD-4	● Christopher Wier● Bob Ed Culver Jr.INC	2%98% 2%98%	R+15.6R+21.5	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
HD-5	● No Democrat● Josh WestINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+58	—
HD-6R vs R	● No Democrat● Rusty CornwellINCAlso: Amber Dawn Ellis (R), Eli Richard (R)	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+62	—
HD-7	● No Democrat● Steve BashoreINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+55	—
HD-8R vs R	● No Democrat● Tom GannINCAlso: Todd Rice (R)	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+60	—
HD-9	● Andrea Biscardi● Scotty Stokes	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+30.9R+44.2	Solid RSolid R	R+49	—
HD-10	● Isaac D. Mattox● Judd StromINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+42.5R+55.7	Solid RSolid R	R+60	—
HD-11R vs R	● No Democrat● John KaneINCAlso: Wendi Stearman (R)	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+50	—
HD-12	● Tiffany Prater● Mark ChapmanINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+41.6R+52.4	Solid RSolid R	R+57	—
HD-13	● No Democrat● Neil HaysINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+31	—
HD-14	● Jeremiah Gantz● Chris SneedINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+27.7R+37.4	Solid RSolid R	R+41	—
HD-15	● No Democrat● Tim TurnerINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+61	—
HD-16	● Rose Rosie Lynch● David Nelson	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+25.1R+36.2	Solid RSolid R	R+40	—
HD-17	● No Democrat● Jim GregoINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+58	—
HD-18	● No Democrat● David SmithINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+61	—
HD-19	● No Democrat● Michael Brittingham	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+67	—
HD-20	● Chris May● Jonathan WilkINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+38.4R+50.0	Solid RSolid R	R+54	—
HD-21	● No Democrat● Cody MaynardINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+57	—
HD-22	● No Democrat● Ryan EavesINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+66	—
HD-23	● Catherine Peters● Derrick HildebrantINC	1%99% 1%99%	R+19.5R+28.5	Solid RSolid R	R+33	—
HD-24	● Joshua Conant● Chris BanningINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+36.2R+47.3	Solid RSolid R	R+51	—
HD-25	● No Democrat● Ronny JohnsINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+47	—
HD-26	● Chris Odneal● Leah Longest	1%99% <1%>99%	R+18.7R+33.3	Solid RSolid R	R+37	—
HD-27	● Memory Taylor● Danny SterlingINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+30.9R+40.4	Solid RSolid R	R+44	—
HD-28	● Blake Cummings● Danny WilliamsINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+38.2R+49.6	Solid RSolid R	R+54	—
HD-29R vs R	● No Democrat● Kyle HilbertINCAlso: Brian Jackson (R)	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+60	—
HD-30	● Sonya Amling● Mark LawsonINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+33.1R+42.4	Solid RSolid R	R+47	—
HD-31R vs R	● No Democrat● Collin DuelINCAlso: Karmin Grider (R)	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+48	—
HD-32	● No Democrat● Jim ShawINCAlso: Andy Brown (I)	No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot	—	Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)	R+64	—
HD-33	● Max E. Burchett Jr.● Molly JenkinsINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+24.3R+31.4	Solid RSolid R	R+37	—
HD-34	● Trish RansonINC● Aaron MeansAlso: Ted Riley (R)	99%1% 81%19%	D+21.8D+8.4	Solid DLikely D	D+2	—
HD-35R vs R	● No Democrat● Dillon TravisINCAlso: Kevin Wright (R)	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+59	—
HD-36	● Leslie Hellebuyck● John GeorgeINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+39.4R+51.0	Solid RSolid R	R+55	—
HD-37R vs R	● No Democrat● Spencer GraceAlso: Jeremy Sacket (R)	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+48	—
HD-38	● Doyle Lewis● Madison Bolay	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+50.5R+62.8	Solid RSolid R	R+67	—
HD-39R vs R	● No Democrat● Erick HarrisINCAlso: Ronda Peterson (R)	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+28	—
HD-40R vs R	● No Democrat● Kinsley JordanAlso: Torry Turnbow (R)	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+45	—
HD-41	● Mike Bockus● Denise Crosswhite HaderINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+29.0R+40.0	Solid RSolid R	R+45	—
HD-42R vs R	● No Democrat● Cynthia RoeINCAlso: Kaity Keith (R)	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+65	—
HD-43	● No Democrat● Jay SteagallINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+40	—
HD-44	● Jared DeckINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+36	—
HD-45	● Annie MenzINC● Carolyn Womack-Bielich	>99%<1% 91%9%	D+22.2D+12.9	Solid DLikely D	D+7	—
HD-46	● Jacob RosecrantsINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+2	—
HD-47	● Indigo Oliver● Toby Thompson	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+29.7R+41.3	Solid RSolid R	R+47	—
HD-48	● No Democrat● Tammy TownleyINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+49	—
HD-49	● Dusty Jo Jones● Josh CantrellINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+49.5R+63.6	Solid RSolid R	R+67	—
HD-50	● No Democrat● Stacy Jo AdamsINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+67	—
HD-51R vs R	● No Democrat● Cole StevensAlso: Cody Elliot (R)	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+70	—
HD-52	● No Democrat● Gerrid KendrixINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+61	—
HD-53	● Carroll Asséo● Jason BlairINC	3%97% 2%98%	R+13.9R+21.5	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
HD-54	● Crystal Abram-Garcia● Heath Kufahl	4%96% 2%98%	R+13.7R+21.8	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
HD-55	● No Democrat● Nick ArcherINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+68	—
HD-56	● Linda Pedro● Dick LoweINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+42.8R+55.1	Solid RSolid R	R+59	—
HD-57	● No Democrat● Anthony MooreINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+62	—
HD-58	● Albert Borrie● Carl NewtonINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+56.7R+70.0	Solid RSolid R	R+74	—
HD-59	● No Democrat● Mike DobrinskiINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+71	—
HD-60	● Sharon K. Taylor● Mike KelleyINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+25.8R+36.3	Solid RSolid R	R+42	—
HD-61	● No Democrat● Kenton PatzkowskyINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+77	—
HD-62Flip riskFlip risk	● Blake Munoz● Daniel PaeINC	55%45% 44%56%	D+0.9R+1.6	Toss-upToss-up	R+7	—
HD-63	● Shykira Smith● Trey CaldwellINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+35.3R+42.2	Solid RSolid R	R+46	—
HD-64D flip	● Kathy Suttles● Louis Jackson	61%39% 28%72%	D+2.0R+5.7	Lean DLean R	R+11	—
HD-65R vs R	● No Democrat● Sam MitchellAlso: Carla Weaver (R)	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+45	—
HD-66	● Alex Barclay● Clay StairesINCAlso: Kenneth Blevins (L)	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+35.6R+45.1	Solid RSolid R	R+49	—
HD-67	● No Democrat● Rob HallINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+27	—
HD-68	● Michelle LaFleur● Mike LayINC	1%99% 1%99%	R+17.9R+25.9	Solid RSolid R	R+31	—
HD-69	● Tyler Price● Sheila Dills	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+23.5R+31.9	Solid RSolid R	R+38	—
HD-70	● Suzanne SchreiberINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+2	—
HD-71	● Amanda ClintonINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+13	—
HD-72	● Michelle McCaneINC● Adam Martin	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+36.9D+30.6	Solid DSolid D	D+24	—
HD-73D vs D	● Ron StewartINC● No RepublicanAlso: Ed Ross (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+77	—
HD-74	● No Democrat● Kevin Wayne NorwoodINCAlso: Aaron Brent (I)	No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot	—	Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)	R+45	—
HD-75	● Joe Watkins● T. J. MartiINC	31%69% 16%84%	R+3.6R+9.8	Lean RLikely R	R+16	—
HD-76	● Michael Tinsley● Ross FordINC	2%98% 2%98%	R+15.6R+22.6	Solid RSolid R	R+28	—
HD-77D vs D	● Kristina Gabriel● No RepublicanAlso: John Waldron (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+6	—
HD-78	● Meloyde BlancettINC● No RepublicanAlso: Tony Oliva (I)	No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot	—	Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)	D+14	—
HD-79	● Melissa ProvenzanoINC● Paul Hassink	98%2% 67%33%	D+18.5D+4.2	Solid DLean D	R+2	—
HD-80	● Jeremy Founds● Stan MayINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+24.7R+34.4	Solid RSolid R	R+40	—
HD-81	● Megan Hornbeek Allen● Troy Talley	36%64% 10%90%	R+2.7R+13.5	Lean RLikely R	R+20	—
HD-82	● Travis Headd● Nicole MillerINC	11%89% 8%92%	R+9.8R+14.5	Likely RLikely R	R+21	—
HD-83Flip risk	● Dalton Gau● Eric RobertsINC	54%46% 30%70%	D+0.7R+5.0	Toss-upLean R	R+11	—
HD-84Flip risk	● Jeffrey Perez● Tammy WestINC	41%59% 26%74%	R+1.6R+6.2	Toss-upLean R	R+12	—
HD-85	● Chelsey Branham● Joe Fallin	>99%1% 88%12%	D+22.3D+12.0	Solid DLikely D	D+5	—
HD-86	● Hannah Cole● David HardinINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+39.4R+54.9	Solid RSolid R	R+59	—
HD-87	● Ellyn HefnerINC● Cody Bartle	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+35.0D+27.0	Solid DSolid D	D+20	—
HD-88	● Ellen PogemillerINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+44	—
HD-89	● Arturo AlonsoINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+30	—
HD-90	● Kymberly Ward● Emily GiseINC	10%90% 6%94%	R+10.2R+15.2	Likely RLikely R	R+20	—
HD-91	● Chris Fowler● Roberto Seda	2%98% 1%99%	R+15.9R+26.9	Solid RSolid R	R+32	—
HD-92D vs D	● Sam Wargin GrimaldoINC● No RepublicanAlso: Vicki Ruth Werneke (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+25	—
HD-93	● Mickey DollensINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+8	—
HD-94	● Andy FugateINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+7	—
HD-95D flipFlip risk	● Tegan Malone● Max WolfleyINCAlso: Ryan Gardner (I)	67%33% 43%57%	D+3.2R+1.7	Lean DToss-up	R+6	—
HD-96	● Ashtyn Smith● Preston StinsonINC	4%96% 3%97%	R+14.2R+19.7	Solid RSolid R	R+26	—
HD-97D vs D	● Aletia TimmonsINC● No RepublicanAlso: Chimere Grant (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+47	—
HD-98	● Cathy Smythe● Gabe WoolleyINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+23.6R+34.2	Solid RSolid R	R+40	—
HD-99	● Herschel L. Brown● Melvin Latham	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+68.2D+68.7	Solid DSolid D	D+63	—
HD-100	● No Democrat● Marilyn StarkINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+3	—
HD-101	● No Democrat● Robert MangerINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+26	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.