Maine · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Maine State Senate?

All 35 seats are on the ballot. 18 seats make a majority. 24 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Democrats are very likely to control the Maine State Senate (99%).

Democrats

99%

chance of control

Republicans

Avg. D seats: 22.180% range 20–25
Avg. R seats: 12.980% range 10–15
Now: 20 D · 14 R · 1 other35 up this year

Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (24+ seats): 23%

20 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party14 R now

Democrats are very likely to control the Maine State Senate (97%).

Democrats

97%

chance of control

Republicans

Avg. D seats: 21.880% range 19–25
Avg. R seats: 13.280% range 10–16
Now: 20 D · 14 R · 1 other35 up this year

Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (24+ seats): 24%

20 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party14 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 35 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

3 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D, 1 Ind.→R. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

3 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D, 1 Ind.→R. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D17

Show 11 more

Likely D3

Lean D2

Toss-up1

SD-20risk

Lean R1

SD-18flip

Likely R3

Solid R8

Solid D16

Show 10 more

Likely D1

SD-26

Lean D4

Toss-up2

Lean R3

Likely R4

Solid R5

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans, ■ another party). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Maine

Portland

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

SD-20Michael R ScottBruce A BickfordFlip riskD flip58%Dem.70%Dem. SD-16Patric Aaron MooreScott Wynn CyrwayD flipD flip62%Dem.75%Dem. SD-15Amanda Ann HeathKati McCormickD flipFlip risk65%Dem.51%Dem. SD-18Elizabeth D BosworthJohn E AndrewsR flipR flip79%Rep.74%Rep.

Most likely to flip

SD-15Amanda Ann HeathKati McCormickD flipFlip risk65%to flip51%to flip SD-16Patric Aaron MooreScott Wynn CyrwayD flipD flip62%to flip75%to flip SD-20Michael R ScottBruce A BickfordFlip riskD flip58%to flip70%to flip SD-8Michael TippingLeo C KenneyFlip risk18%to flip43%to flip SD-33Mark H VigliottaMatthew A Harrington16%to flip26%to flip SD-14Craig V HickmanSteven A McGee14%to flip36%to flip SD-10Kevin J.M. O'ConnellDavid G Haggan11%to flip20%to flip SD-19Peter J SouthamJoseph E Martin8%to flip11%to flip SD-11Glenn Chip CurryRyan C Otis8%to flip29%to flip SD-22Nathan Robert Leigh BurnettKimberly J Pomerleau4%to flip9%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

35 races, 10 without a contest between the major parties.

35 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
SD-1	● Vaughn J McLaughlin● Lucien J.B. Daigle	2%98% 8%92%	R+16.1R+14.2	Solid RLikely R	R+18	—
SD-2	● Harold Steve Hull● Harold L Stewart III	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+27.9R+28.7	Solid RSolid R	R+33	—
SD-3	● Stanley Byron Short Jr.● Joel R Stetkis	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+22.7R+23.9	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
SD-4	● Lisa G Kalp● Chad Richard Perkins	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+29.1R+30.5	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
SD-5	● Robert F Sullebarger● Elizabeth M Caruso	2%98% 6%94%	R+16.6R+15.4	Solid RLikely R	R+18	—
SD-6	● No Democrat● Billy Bob Faulkingham	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+20	—
SD-7	● Nicole C GrohoskiINC● Cheryl A Hewes	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+25.9D+22.9	Solid DSolid D	D+22	—
SD-8Flip risk	● Michael TippingINC● Leo C Kenney	82%18% 57%43%	D+6.7D+1.6	Likely DToss-up	R+1	—
SD-9	● Amy J Roeder● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+11	—
SD-10	● Kevin J.M. O'Connell● David G HagganINC	11%89% 20%80%	R+8.9R+7.8	Likely RLean R	R+10	—
SD-11	● Glenn Chip CurryINC● Ryan C Otis	92%8% 71%29%	D+11.1D+5.3	Likely DLean D	D+4	—
SD-12	● Ann H Matlack● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+21	—
SD-13	● Cameron RenyINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+9	—
SD-14	● Craig V HickmanINC● Steven A McGee	86%14% 64%36%	D+7.9D+3.2	Likely DLean D	D+1	—
SD-15D flipFlip risk	● Amanda Ann Heath● Kati McCormick	65%35% 51%49%	D+2.7D+0.3	Lean DToss-up	R+3	—
SD-16D flipD flip	● Patric Aaron Moore● Scott Wynn CyrwayINC	62%38% 75%25%	D+2.2D+6.2	Lean DLean D	D+3	—
SD-17	● Jo-Jean C Keller● Richard G Mason	2%98% 4%96%	R+17.0R+18.1	Solid RSolid R	R+22	—
SD-18R flipR flip	● Elizabeth D Bosworth● John E Andrews	21%79% 26%74%	R+6.0R+6.0	Lean RLean R	R+9	—
SD-19	● Peter J Southam● Joseph E MartinINC	8%92% 11%89%	R+10.5R+12.0	Likely RLikely R	R+14	—
SD-20Flip riskD flip	● Michael R Scott● Bruce A BickfordINC	58%42% 70%30%	D+1.5D+4.8	Toss-upLean D	D+2	—
SD-21	● Shanna Cox● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+10	—
SD-22	● Nathan Robert Leigh Burnett● Kimberly J Pomerleau	4%96% 9%91%	R+13.4R+12.9	Solid RLikely R	R+16	—
SD-23	● Matthea Elisabeth DaughtryINC● Bernard Porter	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+42.1D+44.5	Solid DSolid D	D+43	—
SD-24	● Denise TeplerINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+16	—
SD-25	● Teresa S PierceINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+33	—
SD-26	● Timothy E NangleINC● Kenneth James Cianchette	99%1% 93%7%	D+17.2D+14.1	Solid DLikely D	D+12	—
SD-27	● Jill C DusonINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+56	—
SD-28	● Rachel Talbot RossINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+70	—
SD-29	● Anne M CarneyINC● Vincent A Maietta	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+47.9D+52.8	Solid DSolid D	D+50	—
SD-30	● Sophia Bailey Warren● Harry J White	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+28.3D+27.4	Solid DSolid D	D+26	—
SD-31	● Donna BaileyINC● Garrett Plummer	99%1% 97%3%	D+20.9D+20.1	Solid DSolid D	D+18	—
SD-32	● Henry L IngwersenINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+11	—
SD-33	● Mark H Vigliotta● Matthew A HarringtonINC	16%84% 26%74%	R+7.2R+5.9	Likely RLean R	R+9	—
SD-34	● Daniel R Sayre● Jonathan R Fallon	99%1% 96%4%	D+18.8D+17.1	Solid DSolid D	D+16	—
SD-35	● Michele Meyer● Julie N Rakic	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+31.8D+31.1	Solid DSolid D	D+30	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).