Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

New Hampshire · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the New Hampshire House of Representatives?

386 of 400 seats are on the ballot; the others are elected in alternate years. 201 seats make a majority. 267 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Democrats are clearly favored to control the New Hampshire House of Representatives (87%), which would flip it from Republican control.

Democrats
87%
chance of control
Republicans
13%
Avg. D seats
234.980% range 197–273
Avg. R seats
165.180% range 127–203
Now
169 D · 211 R · 2 other · 18 vacant386 up this year

Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (267+ seats): 15%

169 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party211 R now

Democrats are clearly favored to control the New Hampshire House of Representatives (86%), which would flip it from Republican control.

Democrats
86%
chance of control
Republicans
14%
Avg. D seats
234.480% range 194–275
Avg. R seats
165.680% range 125–206
Now
169 D · 211 R · 2 other · 18 vacant386 up this year

Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (267+ seats): 15%

169 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party211 R now

201 for control
201 for control
  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Holdover, not up this year

Race ratings

All 203 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

8 seats projected to flip: 5 R→D, 1 Ind.→R, 1 D→R, 1 Ind.→D. 7 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

8 seats projected to flip: 5 R→D, 2 Ind.→R, 1 D→R. 13 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans, ■ another party). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

New Hampshire

Manchester-Nashua

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

Most likely to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

400-member House

The House has 400 members, one of the largest legislatures in the world. Districts are named by county and number ('Hillsborough 12'); many elect several members, and voters pick as many candidates as there are seats.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats 87%Republicans 13%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats 86%Republicans 14%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

201 for D control →D two-thirds →175200225250275300
201 for D control →D two-thirds →175200225250275300

Every race

203 races, 40 without a contest between the major parties.

203 races
DistrictCandidatesChance of winning (D · R)Avg. marginRatingLeanPolls
Belknap 82 seats
● Donald J. Giguere● Lisa M. FreemanAlso: Don House (D), Cameron Thompson (R)
8%92%
14%86%
R+10.3R+10.1Likely RLikely RR+13—
Carroll 7
● Karen Burnett-Kurie● Dale Fincher
57%43%
50%50%
D+1.2EvenToss-upToss-upR+1—
Carroll 82 seats
● Jim Pittman● Tammy GarthwaiteAlso: Colin Mitchell (R)
57%43%
50%50%
D+1.2EvenToss-upToss-upR+1—
Cheshire 152 seats
● Samantha Jacobs● Becky ShieldsAlso: Matthew Roach (R), Nicholas Germana (D)
98%2%
91%9%
D+15.1D+12.8Solid DLikely DD+12—
Cheshire 16
● Lucius Parshall● Alexander Nalevanko
98%2%
91%9%
D+15.2D+12.8Solid DLikely DD+12—
Cheshire 17
● Jennie Gomarlo● Jennifer Rhodes
96%4%
91%9%
D+13.1D+12.8Solid DLikely DD+12—
Cheshire 182 seats
● Allen Davis● Rita MattsonAlso: Jim Qualey (R), Rory Lovett Sherman (D)
96%4%
91%9%
D+13.1D+12.7Solid DLikely DD+12—
Coos 7
● No Democrat● Lori Korzen
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+12—
Grafton 17
● Thomas Cormen● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+21—
Grafton 18
● Marko Kloos● Donald McFarlane
99%1%
98%2%
D+19.5D+21.2Solid DSolid DD+21—
Hillsborough 37
● Megan A. Murray● Michael E. Thornton
89%11%
76%24%
D+8.9D+6.5Likely DLean DD+4—
Hillsborough 382 seats
● Mahendra Bakshi● Adam HaverstockAlso: Ted Trost (R)
83%17%
75%25%
D+6.8D+6.4Likely DLean DD+4—
Hillsborough 39
● Ellen A. Boudreau● William InfantineAlso: Jon DiPietro (R), Tommy Katsiantonis (D)
75%25%
76%24%
D+4.8D+6.4Lean DLean DD+4—
Hillsborough 403 seats
● Erin Kerwin● Bill O'BrienAlso: Carlos Gonzalez (R), Lynne M. Cumming (R), Robert Rivera (R)
89%11%
75%25%
D+8.8D+6.4Likely DLean DD+4—
Hillsborough 412 seats
● Lily M. Foss● Ryan HebertAlso: Joseph Skinner (R), Jason Hodgdon (R), Tom Stewart (D)
83%17%
76%24%
D+6.9D+6.5Likely DLean DD+4—
Hillsborough 442 seats
● Chris Conroy● Lisa MazurAlso: Ross Berry (R), Bob Jones (D)
75%25%
75%25%
D+4.8D+6.4Lean DLean DD+4—
Hillsborough 45
● Jerry Roche● Jack Flanagan
76%24%
76%24%
D+4.8D+6.5Lean DLean DD+4—
Merrimack 25
● Erica Russell● James Thibault
81%19%
79%21%
D+6.4D+7.6Likely DLean DD+6—
Merrimack 26
● Harold D. Tuttle● Alvin B. See
81%19%
79%21%
D+6.4D+7.5Likely DLean DD+6—
Merrimack 272 seats
● Phillip James Walker● Ray PlanteAlso: Harold Kozlowski (D), Vanessa Poulin (R)
82%18%
79%21%
D+6.4D+7.6Likely DLean DD+6—
Merrimack 28
● Lisa Brown● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+6—
Merrimack 29
● Kris Schultz● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+6—
Merrimack 30
● Jason Quinno● Robert C. Washburn
88%12%
79%21%
D+8.3D+7.5Likely DLean DD+6—
Rockingham 312 seats
● Peter Boudreau● Jess EdwardsAlso: Yaz Safarzadeh (D), Terry Roy (R)
47%53%
51%49%
R+0.6EvenToss-upToss-upR+1—
Rockingham 32
● No Democrat● Melissa A. Litchfield
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+1—
Rockingham 33
● Alexis Simpson● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DR+1—
Rockingham 34
● Jade DeMio● Mark A. Pearson
47%53%
50%50%
R+0.6EvenToss-upToss-upR+1—
Rockingham 35
● Michelle Stith● Julius F. Soti
47%53%
50%50%
R+0.6EvenToss-upToss-upR+1—
Rockingham 36
● Paul Bonzani● JD Bernardy
47%53%
50%50%
R+0.6EvenToss-upToss-upR+1—
Rockingham 37
● Kate Cook● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DR+1—
Rockingham 38
● Peggy Balboni● Paul Martino
69%31%
50%50%
D+3.4EvenLean DToss-upR+1—
Rockingham 39
● Barbara M. Ward● Sue Polidura
69%31%
50%50%
D+3.4EvenLean DToss-upR+1—
Rockingham 40
● Justin G. Packard● Linda McGrath
46%54%
50%50%
R+0.7R+0.1Toss-upToss-upR+1—
State House District Belknap 01R flipR flip
● Amber Schaefer● Tom Ploszaj
16%84%
29%71%
R+7.2R+5.2Likely RLean RR+7—
State House District Belknap 02Flip risk
● Seth Wheeler● Matt CokerINCAlso: Dean S.T. Cascadden (D), Scott Wallace (R)
29%71%
47%53%
R+4.2R+0.8Lean RToss-upR+2—
State House District Belknap 03
● William Lawrence, Jr.● Steven Bunce
14%86%
14%86%
R+7.8R+10.3Likely RLikely RR+13—
State House District Belknap 04
● Liz Charlwood● Kevin M. Nugent, Jr.
1%99%
4%96%
R+22.0R+18.5Solid RSolid RR+22—
State House District Belknap 053 seats
● Marcia Hayward● Mike BordesINCAlso: Denise Riley (D), Lois A. Kessin (D), Charlie St. Clair (D)
20%80%
31%69%
R+6.0R+4.5Likely RLean RR+8—
State House District Belknap 063 seats
● David Nagel● Glen AldrichINCAlso: Bob McLean (D), Lisa Rivard (D), Allan Frank (D)
30%70%
19%81%
R+3.7R+8.3Lean RLikely RR+10—
State House District Belknap 073 seats
● Laura Dunham● Peter R. VarneyINCAlso: Nancy Mitchell (D), Stephen Copithorne (D), Barbara Comtois (R)
1%99%
2%98%
R+20.7R+21.5Solid RSolid RR+24—
State House District Carroll 013 seats
● David PaigeINC● Karen C. UmbergerAlso: Benjamin Colbath (D), Ellin M. Leonard (D), Robert W. Nelson (R)
99%1%
94%6%
D+17.1D+15.6Solid DLikely DD+15—
State House District Carroll 022 seats
● Anita BurroughsINC● Jennifer LePlaAlso: Adam Heard (D), Erlon Jones (R)
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+26.4D+25.1Solid DSolid DD+25—
State House District Carroll 032 seats
● Bryan Randolph● Karel A. CrawfordINCAlso: Todd Milliken (D), Richard R. Brown (R)
23%77%
36%64%
R+5.3R+3.4Lean RLean RR+4—
State House District Carroll 042 seats
● Annie Gehring● Mike BelcherINCAlso: Lino M. Avellani (R)
1%99%
4%96%
R+18.0R+17.4Solid RSolid RR+20—
State House District Carroll 05
● Morgan Bultman● Steven Brown
<1%>99%
2%98%
R+25.9R+23.1Solid RSolid RR+25—
State House District Carroll 06Flip risk2 seats
● Deirdre McEachern● John T. MacDonaldINCAlso: Phoebe VanScoy-Giessler (D), Tim Bauman (R)
33%67%
44%56%
R+3.2R+1.4Lean RToss-upR+2—
State House District Cheshire 01
● Dylan Germana● Timothy J. Donovan
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+40.5D+38.5Solid DSolid DD+38—
State House District Cheshire 02
● Dru FoxINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+35—
State House District Cheshire 03
● Philip JonesINC● Marissa W. Salisbury
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+40.9D+36.2Solid DSolid DD+36—
State House District Cheshire 04
● Jodi NewellINC● Robert Johnson
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+32.1D+33.3Solid DSolid DD+32—
State House District Cheshire 05
● Lucy McVitty WeberINC● William J. Sommer
>99%<1%
98%2%
D+22.9D+20.6Solid DSolid DD+20—
State House District Cheshire 062 seats
● Cathryn A. HarveyINC● Zachary NuttingAlso: Paul Berch (D)
96%4%
89%11%
D+13.4D+11.7Solid DLikely DD+11—
State House District Cheshire 07
● Terri O'RorkeINC● Jonathan Liptak
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+41.2D+36.6Solid DSolid DD+37—
State House District Cheshire 08
● Christine L. Parshall● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+24—
State House District Cheshire 09D flipD flip
● Jim Gruber● Rich NalevankoINC
71%29%
71%29%
D+4.0D+5.1Lean DLean DD+4—
State House District Cheshire 10R flipFlip risk2 seats
● Steve RussellINC● Sly KarasinskiAlso: Michael Ralph York (R), Alan Gross (D)
33%67%
45%55%
R+3.3R+1.1Lean RToss-upR+3—
State House District Cheshire 11
● Lindseigh Picard● Denis Vincent Murphy IIINC
13%87%
27%73%
R+8.3R+5.9Likely RLean RR+9—
State House District Cheshire 12
● Kristan Tilton● Dick ThackstonINC
8%92%
14%86%
R+10.3R+10.1Likely RLikely RR+12—
State House District Cheshire 13
● Tom Ahlborn-Hsu● Matthew Santonastaso
78%22%
75%25%
D+5.5D+6.4Lean DLean DD+5—
State House District Cheshire 14
● Gene F. Andersen● John B. HuntINC
1%99%
2%98%
R+20.1R+21.8Solid RSolid RR+24—
State House District Coos 012 seats
● Lee Ann Potter● Amy NorrisAlso: Sam Hoehn (R)
10%90%
12%88%
R+9.6R+11.5Likely RLikely RR+14—
State House District Coos 02
● Lincoln Robertson● Arnold G. DavisINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+31.0R+27.2Solid RSolid RR+31—
State House District Coos 03
● No Democrat● Mike OuelletINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+34—
State House District Coos 04
● No Democrat● Seth KingINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+9—
State House District Coos 05R vs R2 seats
● No Democrat● Peter MorencyINCAlso: Mark Evans (R)
Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November—Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)R+1—
State House District Coos 06
● Richard Umiker● Robert Gargano
85%15%
86%14%
D+7.7D+10.9Likely DLikely DD+9—
State House District Grafton 013 seats
● Linda Massimilla● Calvin BeaulierINCAlso: Timothy T. Egan (D), Joseph Goderic Beaulieu (D), Andrew Dorsett (R)
33%67%
39%61%
R+3.1R+2.5Lean RLean RR+5—
State House District Grafton 02
● Jared SullivanINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+28—
State House District Grafton 03
● Jerry M. StringhamINC● Bonnie Ham
98%2%
92%8%
D+16.5D+14.3Solid DLikely DD+12—
State House District Grafton 04
● Heather P. BaldwinINC● David Adams Rardin
98%2%
90%10%
D+16.3D+12.2Solid DLikely DD+12—
State House District Grafton 052 seats
● Dustin Vigneault● Marie Louise BjelobrkINCAlso: Greg Mathieson (R)
2%98%
7%93%
R+15.8R+15.0Solid RLikely RR+18—
State House District Grafton 06Flip risk
● Paul J. Goundrey● Linda FranzINC
32%68%
46%54%
R+3.5R+1.0Lean RToss-upR+2—
State House District Grafton 07
● Janet Marie LucasINC● Jon A. Gablinske
90%10%
69%31%
D+9.8D+4.7Likely DLean DD+4—
State House District Grafton 083 seats
● Sallie FellowsINC● George KirkAlso: Peter Lovett (D), Bill Bolton (D)
99%1%
96%4%
D+21.0D+18.2Solid DSolid DD+18—
State House District Grafton 09
● Ella V. Barrett● Bradley Macrae
88%12%
80%20%
D+8.6D+8.0Likely DLikely DD+7—
State House District Grafton 10
● Marc E. Bourassa● Steven Pihl Coffill
33%67%
29%71%
R+3.1R+5.0Lean RLean RR+7—
State House District Grafton 11
● Roger B. Larochelle, Jr.● Jake Abuhav
4%96%
12%88%
R+13.2R+11.1Solid RLikely RR+16—
State House District Grafton 12D vs D4 seats
● Mary Hakken-PhillipsINC● No RepublicanAlso: Russell Muirhead (D), Ellen Rockmore (D), Terry Spahr (D)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+73—
State House District Grafton 13
● Laurel StavisINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+51—
State House District Grafton 14
● Kathryn Brennan● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+51—
State House District Grafton 15
● Zoe Hill● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+50—
State House District Grafton 16
● David FrachtINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+26—
State House District Hillsborough 013 seats
● Debbie Ryan● Tom MannionINCAlso: Deborah Kruzel (R), Jeffrey F. Tenczar (R), Diane Rogers (R)
<1%>99%
2%98%
R+21.2R+22.0Solid RSolid RR+24—
State House District Hillsborough 02D flipD flip7 seats
● Catherine A. Rombeau● Kristin NobleINCAlso: Brian Labrie (R), Peter M. Kujawski (R), John Schneller (R)
86%14%
72%28%
D+8.0D+5.7Likely DLean DD+3—
State House District Hillsborough 033 seats
● Fred DavisINC● John MenyhardAlso: Suzanne A. Beaulieu (D), Michael P. Aksten (D)
>99%<1%
98%2%
D+22.6D+21.4Solid DSolid DD+17—
State House District Hillsborough 043 seats
● Linda Vandecar RyanINC● Shawn MartinAlso: Camille Pattison (D), Renae Lias (D)
99%1%
96%4%
D+19.7D+17.3Solid DSolid DD+15—
State House District Hillsborough 053 seats
● Heather RaymondINC● Paul SchibbelhuteAlso: Susan A. Elberger (D), Dale Swanson (D)
99%1%
96%4%
D+18.9D+17.0Solid DSolid DD+14—
State House District Hillsborough 062 seats
● Lee Ann KlugerINC● Daniel RichardsonAlso: Doris Hohensee (R), Elena Pavlou (R), Michele Roussel Buckley (D)
99%1%
97%3%
D+20.3D+19.1Solid DSolid DD+15—
State House District Hillsborough 073 seats
● Louis C. JurisINC● Avalon LewisAlso: Roy H. Parker (R), Charlene Bangs Pedersen (D), Jim Mahoney (D)
99%1%
97%3%
D+20.0D+18.5Solid DSolid DD+14—
State House District Hillsborough 083 seats
● Christal LloydINC● Travis TripodiAlso: Efstathia C. Booras (D), Frances Nutter-Upham (D)
99%1%
97%3%
D+20.6D+19.3Solid DSolid DD+15—
State House District Hillsborough 093 seats
● Santosh D. SalviINC● Joseph ColeAlso: Rich Green (D), Sanjeev K. Manohar (D)
99%1%
95%5%
D+19.0D+16.4Solid DLikely DD+13—
State House District Hillsborough 103 seats
● Linda Harriott-GathrightINC● Bill OhmAlso: Samantha O'Loughlin (D), Marty Jack (D)
98%2%
96%4%
D+16.8D+17.6Solid DSolid DD+15—
State House District Hillsborough 113 seats
● Will DarbyINC● Kristie HartAlso: Manoj Chourasia (D), Arya Shams (D)
>99%<1%
98%2%
D+22.2D+20.6Solid DSolid DD+17—
State House District Hillsborough 12D flipD flip8 seats
● Rosemarie L. Rung● Maureen MooneyINCAlso: Jeanine Notter (R), Bill Boyd (R), Adam Presa (R)
86%14%
71%29%
D+7.8D+5.1Likely DLean DD+3—
State House District Hillsborough 136 seats
● Kate Messner● Andrew ProutINCAlso: Jordan Ulery (R), Dillon Dumont (R), Tom Trost (R)
10%90%
20%80%
R+9.1R+7.8Likely RLean RR+10—
State House District Hillsborough 142 seats
● Paula Paciulan● Raymond C. Peeples, Jr.INCAlso: Rich Lascelles (R), Ray Ealy (D)
11%89%
20%80%
R+9.1R+8.0Likely RLean RR+10—
State House District Hillsborough 15D flipD flip2 seats
● Michael Farley● Mark ProulxINCAlso: Mark McLean (R), Michael Fitzell (D)
83%17%
83%17%
D+6.7D+8.9Likely DLikely DD+6—
State House District Hillsborough 162 seats
● Ben Baroody● David A. SmithAlso: Michael J. Tkacz (R)
87%13%
82%18%
D+8.3D+8.7Likely DLikely DD+7—
State House District Hillsborough 172 seats
● Sean Parr● Ben PrescottAlso: Rob Fox (D)
96%4%
92%8%
D+12.9D+13.5Solid DLikely DD+11—
State House District Hillsborough 182 seats
● Jessica GrillINC● Steven KesselringAlso: James Normand (D)
96%4%
90%10%
D+13.4D+12.5Solid DLikely DD+9—
State House District Hillsborough 192 seats
● Jane BeaulieuINC● Matt DrewAlso: Mickey Mullin (R), Chrissy Simonds (D)
87%13%
90%10%
D+8.1D+12.4Likely DLikely DD+9—
State House District Hillsborough 202 seats
● Alissandra MurrayINC● Pierre M. DupontAlso: Jose R. Marte (R), Pauline Martineau (D)
95%5%
90%10%
D+12.1D+12.2Likely DLikely DD+8—
State House District Hillsborough 212 seats
● Christine SeibertINC● Chris MorganAlso: Jeff Goley (D)
98%2%
91%9%
D+17.2D+13.5Solid DLikely DD+11—
State House District Hillsborough 222 seats
● Nicole LeapleyINC● Brittany PingAlso: Max Abramson (R), Greg Erskine (D)
98%2%
93%7%
D+16.8D+14.8Solid DLikely DD+10—
State House District Hillsborough 23D vs D2 seats
● Mary Ngwanda GeorgesINC● No RepublicanAlso: Jean Jeudy (D)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+14—
State House District Hillsborough 24
● Frank Anthony● Paul LaFerriereAlso: Shuvom Ghose (R), Anthony Carideo (D)
95%5%
93%7%
D+12.6D+14.8Solid DLikely DD+10—
State House District Hillsborough 252 seats
● Kathy StaubINC● Kathleen PaquetteAlso: Heather Deiner (D)
99%1%
97%3%
D+19.4D+20.2Solid DSolid DD+16—
State House District Hillsborough 262 seats
● Patrick N. LongINC● Henry EmeleAlso: Mary Freitas (D)
98%2%
91%9%
D+15.9D+13.3Solid DLikely DD+10—
State House District Hillsborough 27
● No Democrat● Mary MurphyINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+11—
State House District Hillsborough 282 seats
● David Erikson● Keith ErfINCAlso: Travis Corcoran (R), Benson H. Goodwin (D)
1%99%
3%97%
R+18.8R+19.1Solid RSolid RR+21—
State House District Hillsborough 29Flip riskFlip risk3 seats
● Judi L. Lanza● Joe AlexanderINCAlso: Sherri Reinfurt (R), Henry R. Giasson III (R), Shanun R. Carey (R)
47%53%
47%53%
R+0.6R+0.6Toss-upToss-upR+2—
State House District Hillsborough 303 seats
● Janet McEwen● Tim MorehouseAlso: Austin Cottle (R), Larry Baker (R), W. Gordon Allen (D)
21%79%
22%78%
R+5.9R+7.3Lean RLean RR+11—
State House District Hillsborough 31
● Molly C. HowardINC● Jarvis M. Adams IV
99%1%
97%3%
D+20.2D+20.0Solid DSolid DD+19—
State House District Hillsborough 323 seats
● Kermit Williams● Shane SiroisINCAlso: Jim Kofalt (R), Diane Kelley (R), Richard Swanson (D)
3%97%
5%95%
R+14.2R+16.2Solid RLikely RR+18—
State House District Hillsborough 332 seats
● Peter R. LeishmanINC● Kimberly ThomasAlso: Jonah Orion Wheeler (D)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+39.0D+39.6Solid DSolid DD+38—
State House District Hillsborough 343 seats
● Stephanie GrundINC● Russ HodgkinsAlso: Jason Hennessey (R), Diane Layton (R), Daniel T. Veilleux (D)
99%1%
97%3%
D+21.4D+19.9Solid DSolid DD+17—
State House District Hillsborough 352 seats
● Kat McGheeINC● Liz BarbourAlso: Jim Kelly (R), Ben Ming (D)
98%2%
92%8%
D+15.8D+14.2Solid DLikely DD+13—
State House District Hillsborough 36Flip risk2 seats
● Michael Pellerito● Diane PauerINCAlso: John W. Suiter (R), Stephen Spratt (D)
34%66%
47%53%
R+3.1R+0.8Lean RToss-upR+2—
State House District Hillsborough 42Flip riskFlip risk3 seats
● Lee C. Nyquist● Gerald GriffinINCAlso: Lisa C. M. Post (R), Rob Lovett (R), Teri Harkins (D)
50%50%
59%41%
EvenD+2.1Toss-upToss-upD+1—
State House District Hillsborough 434 seats
● Paul DargieINC● Gary DanielsAlso: Vanessa L. Sheehan (R), Elizabeth Keenan (R), William J. Bieschke (R)
91%9%
79%21%
D+9.9D+7.8Likely DLean DD+6—
State House District Merrimack 01
● Lorrie J. Carey● Rick DevoidINC
15%85%
19%81%
R+7.4R+8.4Likely RLikely RR+11—
State House District Merrimack 02
● Joyce May Fulweiler● Gregory HillINC
2%98%
7%93%
R+18.6R+14.1Solid RLikely RR+17—
State House District Merrimack 032 seats
● Scott A. Burns● Michael ViscontiAlso: Vivian Marie Hall (D), Werner D. Horn (R)
16%84%
11%89%
R+7.2R+11.8Likely RLikely RR+15—
State House District Merrimack 042 seats
● Cody York● Michael MoffettINCAlso: Jose Eduardo Cambrils (R)
10%90%
17%83%
R+9.5R+9.2Likely RLikely RR+11—
State House District Merrimack 052 seats
● Lorna Carlisle● Louise AndrusINCAlso: Thomas Ware (D), Deborah Aylward (R)
6%94%
12%88%
R+12.2R+11.4Likely RLikely RR+13—
State House District Merrimack 06
● Tom SchambergINC● Paul M. Little
99%1%
94%6%
D+20.1D+15.5Solid DLikely DD+15—
State House District Merrimack 072 seats
● Karen Elizabeth EbelINC● Dorothy L. HitchmothAlso: Gregory M. Sargent (D)
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+27.4D+27.7Solid DSolid DD+25—
State House District Merrimack 083 seats
● Stephanie PayeurINC● Natalie J. WellsAlso: Eileen Kelly (D), Tony Caplan (D), Matt Center (R)
95%5%
85%15%
D+12.1D+9.7Likely DLikely DD+9—
State House District Merrimack 09D vs D4 seats
● Muriel HallINC● No RepublicanAlso: Eleana M. Colby (D), David Luneau (D), James Newsom (D)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+22—
State House District Merrimack 104 seats
● William Lynch● Thomas C. WalshINCAlso: Germano Mendes Martins (D), Lucas J. Coriaty (D), Ricky Gurung (D)
24%76%
30%70%
R+5.0R+4.8Lean RLean RR+6—
State House District Merrimack 11
● Al Turcotte● Matthew PitaroINC
19%81%
21%79%
R+6.4R+7.6Likely RLean RR+11—
State House District Merrimack 12Flip riskFlip risk2 seats
● Mariana R. Beer● Brian SeaworthINCAlso: Kenneth Nivison (D), Peter L. Mehegan (R)
46%54%
58%42%
R+0.7D+1.8Toss-upToss-upEven—
State House District Merrimack 13R vs R2 seats
● No Democrat● Clayton WoodINCAlso: Cyril Aures (R)
Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November—Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)R+21—
State House District Merrimack 14
● Glenn Horner● Gary Matteson
1%99%
2%98%
R+22.6R+20.4Solid RSolid RR+22—
State House District Merrimack 15
● Tracy BricchiINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+26—
State House District Merrimack 16
● Connie LaneINC● Laurence Weissbrot
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+28.4D+27.9Solid DSolid DD+26—
State House District Merrimack 17
● Beth RichardsINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+28—
State House District Merrimack 18
● Lisa D. Beaudoin● Elijah J. Wilson
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+38.5D+42.1Solid DSolid DD+40—
State House District Merrimack 19
● Mary Jane WallnerINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+32—
State House District Merrimack 20
● Nathan Giffard● Jonathan Clark
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+32.8D+30.0Solid DSolid DD+28—
State House District Merrimack 21
● Timothy SoucyINC● Darryl Berleth
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+37.8D+37.5Solid DSolid DD+37—
State House District Merrimack 22
● Alison Murphy● Jonathan R. Cate
99%1%
99%1%
D+21.8D+27.2Solid DSolid DD+26—
State House District Merrimack 23
● Kristopher Levesque● Andrew Georgevits
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+26.3D+33.3Solid DSolid DD+29—
State House District Merrimack 24
● Matthew HicksINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+27—
State House District Rockingham 01Flip risk3 seats
● Hal Rafter● Scott BryerINCAlso: Donna Danis (D), Pamela Sanderson (D), James Guzofski (R)
33%67%
44%56%
R+3.2R+1.5Lean RToss-upR+3—
State House District Rockingham 023 seats
● Judith Lindsey● Jason OsborneINCAlso: James Spillane (R), Will Huebner (R)
1%99%
4%96%
R+17.1R+17.2Solid RSolid RR+19—
State House District Rockingham 03
● Chuck Heuer● Mary J. FordINC
2%98%
5%95%
R+16.5R+16.0Solid RLikely RR+18—
State House District Rockingham 043 seats
● Christine Pierce● Michael DragoINCAlso: Art Hunt (D), Brian Nadeau (R), Cindy Bennett (R)
1%99%
3%97%
R+20.0R+19.3Solid RSolid RR+23—
State House District Rockingham 05Flip riskR flip
● Mark ValloneINC● John ScullyAlso: Joseph Perry (D), Trevor Morse (R)
49%51%
18%82%
R+0.2R+8.5Toss-upLikely RR+10—
State House District Rockingham 06
● Eric S. TurerINC● Allen Cook
85%15%
69%31%
D+7.6D+4.7Likely DLean DD+3—
State House District Rockingham 07
● JJ DeFeo● Laurence A. MinerINC
1%99%
5%95%
R+22.4R+17.0Solid RSolid RR+19—
State House District Rockingham 08
● No Democrat● Sayra Lynn DeVitoINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+25—
State House District Rockingham 09R vs R2 seats
● No Democrat● Matthew BrooksAlso: Kevin M. Major (R)
Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November—Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)R+23—
State House District Rockingham 10D vs D3 seats
● Michael CahillINC● No RepublicanAlso: Charlotte DiLorenzo (D), Ellen Read (D)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+30—
State House District Rockingham 113 seats
● Julie GilmanINC● Robert GoemanAlso: Enna Grazier (D), Mark Paige (D), Steven C. Jones (D)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+35.4D+34.4Solid DSolid DD+34—
State House District Rockingham 122 seats
● Allison KnabINC● Patrick AbramiAlso: Zoe Manos (D), James Scamman (R)
99%1%
98%2%
D+22.4D+23.9Solid DSolid DD+21—
State House District Rockingham 1310 seats
● Thomas Bosia● Charles FooteINCAlso: Haley Carreau (D), Jamie Carreau (D), Hollie Hesse (D)
9%91%
19%81%
R+9.5R+8.4Likely RLikely RR+11—
State House District Rockingham 142 seats
● Paul C. Paone● Kenneth L. WeylerINCAlso: Pam Brown (R)
5%95%
9%91%
R+11.8R+12.8Likely RLikely RR+15—
State House District Rockingham 152 seats
● Laurie A. Warnock● Joe A. GuthrieINCAlso: Lisa DeMio (D), Lilli Walsh (R)
2%98%
5%95%
R+15.7R+16.1Solid RLikely RR+18—
State House District Rockingham 167 seats
● Jane Cooper● David LundgrenINCAlso: Paul Skudlarek (D), Bob Cote (D), Isaac Fernandez (D)
29%71%
40%60%
R+4.0R+2.4Lean RLean RR+4—
State House District Rockingham 174 seats
● David Martsolf● Charles E. McMahonINCAlso: Darryn E. Remillard (D), Irene L. Harnden (D), Matthew Swoboda (D)
8%92%
20%80%
R+10.8R+8.0Likely RLean RR+11—
State House District Rockingham 182 seats
● Christine Duerr● Debra L. DeSimoneINCAlso: Jay Markell (R)
4%96%
9%91%
R+13.1R+12.8Solid RLikely RR+15—
State House District Rockingham 19Flip risk
● Wendy Larson● Susan M. PorcelliINC
33%67%
51%49%
R+3.3D+0.3Lean RToss-upR+1—
State House District Rockingham 203 seats
● Rick A. Faulconer● Charles R. Melvin, Sr.INCAlso: Robert Harb (R), James Summers (R)
3%97%
7%93%
R+14.5R+14.1Solid RLikely RR+17—
State House District Rockingham 21
● Anna Howard● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+32—
State House District Rockingham 22
● Rebecca Audet● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+42—
State House District Rockingham 23
● Jim MaggioreINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+15—
State House District Rockingham 24
● Dennis MalloyINC● Marilyn PageAlso: Michael J. Moody (D), Kevin Szmyd (R)
>99%<1%
98%3%
D+23.4D+21.2Solid DSolid DD+20—
State House District Rockingham 258 seats
● Donna Loranger● Lorie BallINCAlso: Claudia DeFuria (D), Kienen Dyer (D), Jeremy Guilbeault (R)
2%98%
6%94%
R+15.5R+15.0Solid RLikely RR+18—
State House District Rockingham 26
● Buzz ScherrINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+41—
State House District Rockingham 27
● Gerald W. R. WardINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+40—
State House District Rockingham 28
● Carrie SorensenINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+55—
State House District Rockingham 294 seats
● Molly McCoyINC● Nicholas D. BridleAlso: Rebecca LaPierre (D), Ward Galanis (D), Nathan Andrew Riggs (D)
75%25%
81%19%
D+5.0D+8.2Lean DLikely DD+7—
State House District Rockingham 302 seats
● Diana Labrecque Chapman● Aboul B. KhanINCAlso: Jason A. Janvrin (R)
1%99%
4%96%
R+18.4R+17.6Solid RSolid RR+20—
State House District Strafford 012 seats
● Jimmy Bourque● Sue DeLemusINCAlso: W. Packy Campbell (R), Brian Beaverstock (D)
1%99%
4%96%
R+17.3R+17.9Solid RSolid RR+22—
State House District Strafford 023 seats
● Larry Brown● Glenn BaileyINCAlso: Michael Granger (R), Mark F. Racic (R)
14%86%
21%79%
R+7.7R+7.6Likely RLean RR+10—
State House District Strafford 03
● Linda R. Adamo● Susan G. DeRoyINC
<1%>99%
2%98%
R+22.9R+22.7Solid RSolid RR+25—
State House District Strafford 043 seats
● Kimberly S. McGlinchey● Kurt WuelperAlso: JoAnne Hack (R), Tanya Rich (R), Scott Shepard (D)
63%37%
63%37%
D+2.3D+3.1Lean DLean DD+2—
State House District Strafford 05
● No Democrat● Jenny Wilson
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+3—
State House District Strafford 06Flip riskFlip risk
● Daniel Fitzpatrick● Denise DeDe-PoulinINC
43%57%
45%55%
R+1.4R+1.1Toss-upToss-upR+4—
State House District Strafford 07D flipR flip
● John H. Larochelle● Eric Bourgeois
55%45%
42%58%
D+0.9R+2.0Toss-upToss-upR+4—
State House District Strafford 08Flip riskFlip risk
● Ty Wyman● David Walker
42%58%
54%46%
R+1.5D+0.9Toss-upToss-upR+2—
State House District Strafford 09
● Nevin Dexter● Robert Qua
74%26%
66%34%
D+4.7D+3.7Lean DLean DD+1—
State House District Strafford 10D vs D4 seats
● Loren SeligINC● No RepublicanAlso: Siena R. Schaier (D), Timothy Horrigan (D), Wayne M. Burton (D)
Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November—Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)D+48—
State House District Strafford 113 seats
● Janet G. WallINC● Monique MeadowsAlso: Erik Johnson (D), Thomas Southworth (D)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+32.9D+31.1Solid DSolid DD+31—
State House District Strafford 124 seats
● Billie ButlerINC● Philip HoudeAlso: David Hilton (R), Paul T. Edgar (R), Will Hurley (D)
99%1%
93%7%
D+17.5D+14.5Solid DLikely DD+12—
State House District Strafford 13
● Peter W. BixbyINC● Daniel A. Furman
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+28.7D+29.7Solid DSolid DD+29—
State House District Strafford 14
● Peter B. SchmidtINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+45—
State House District Strafford 15
● Samuel Chouinard● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+34—
State House District Strafford 16
● Gary GilmoreINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+30—
State House District Strafford 17
● Jessica LaMontagneINC● Matthew D. Albion
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+31.9D+30.7Solid DSolid DD+30—
State House District Sullivan 01
● Brian SullivanINC● Joel T. Hutchins
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+37.4D+36.6Solid DSolid DD+37—
State House District Sullivan 02
● Jenny Ramsey● Michael Belanger
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+28.3D+30.2Solid DSolid DD+30—
State House District Sullivan 033 seats
● Lisa DeBartolomao● Skip RollinsINCAlso: Jeffrey F. Kessler (D), Timothy Fitzpatrick (D), Steven Smith (R)
3%97%
9%91%
R+15.0R+13.2Solid RLikely RR+16—
State House District Sullivan 04
● Christopher J. Salmon● Ron Rule
6%94%
11%89%
R+11.7R+12.2Likely RLikely RR+15—
State House District Sullivan 05D flipD flip
● Judith M. Thackaberry● George C. GrantINC
65%35%
74%26%
D+2.8D+6.0Lean DLean DD+5—
State House District Sullivan 06Flip riskFlip risk3 seats
● John R. Cloutier● Dale GirardINCAlso: Lisa R. Gosselin (D), Chris Cogswell (D), Wayne J. Hemingway (R)
54%46%
41%59%
D+0.7R+2.1Toss-upToss-upR+5—
Strafford 18
● Thom Flynn● Michael Harrington
95%5%
93%7%
D+12.3D+14.2Solid DLikely DD+13—
Strafford 193 seats
● Nick Paul● Samuel FarringtonAlso: Jonathan Verbicky (R), James Higginbottom (R), Justin McIsaac (D)
95%5%
93%7%
D+12.3D+14.1Solid DLikely DD+13—
Strafford 20
● Allan Howland● John Colford
98%2%
93%7%
D+16.3D+14.2Solid DLikely DD+13—
Strafford 213 seats
● Alice Wade● Joseph D. MorganellaAlso: Seth Miller (D), Geoff Smith (D)
98%2%
93%7%
D+16.3D+14.1Solid DLikely DD+13—
Sullivan 7
● Lawrence A. Schissel● Margaret M. Drye
54%46%
59%41%
D+0.8D+2.0Toss-upToss-upEven—
Sullivan 82 seats
● Hope Damon● Jonathan F. StoneAlso: Samuel Deering (D), Catherine Peschke (R)
65%35%
59%41%
D+2.7D+2.0Lean DToss-upEven—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.