Georgia · 2026 forecast · Southeast region · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Georgia in 2026

Georgia elects a U.S. senator and a governor, a lieutenant governor, an attorney general, a secretary of state, all 14 members of the U.S. House, all 56 members of the State Senate and all 180 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.

On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · Governor · 3 statewide offices · 14 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.

U.S. Senate: D 96%D 93%Jon Ossoff vs. Mike Collins
Governor: D 51%D 52%Keisha Lance Bottoms vs. Rick Jackson
U.S. House: 5.4 D · 8.6 R5.8 D · 8.2 RExpected seats of 14
Georgia State Senate: R 99%R 95%Chance of control · 56 of 56 seats up
Georgia House of Representatives: R 80%R 62%Chance of control · 180 of 180 seats up
Lieutenant Governor: D 78%D 73%Josh McLaurin vs. Greg Dolezal
Attorney General: D 78%D 73%Tanya F. Miller vs. Brian Strickland
Secretary of State: D 73%D 73%Penny Reynolds vs. Tim Fleming

Trifecta
Statewide
Environment
U.S. House
General Assembly
Election rules

U.S. House districts · Georgia

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Trifecta

Republican trifecta now

Republicans hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.

After the election

Dem. trifecta: <1%
Divided: 57%
Rep. trifecta: 43%

Projected change: divided government is most likely (57%); 43% chance the Republican trifecta holds.

After the election

Dem. trifecta: 3%
Divided: 64%
Rep. trifecta: 32%

Projected change: divided government is most likely (64%); 32% chance the Republican trifecta holds.

Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.

Statewide races

Every race decided by the whole state. Statewide offices nationwide.

U.S. Senate

Solid DLikely D

● Jon OssoffINC● Mike Collins

96%4%

93%7%

Runoff 1%

GovernorFlip riskFlip risk

Toss-upToss-up

● Keisha Lance Bottoms● Rick Jackson

51%49%

52%48%

Runoff 7%

Statewide offices

Lieutenant GovernorD flipD flip

Lean DLean D

● Josh McLaurin● Greg Dolezal

78%22%

73%27%

Runoff 5%

Attorney GeneralD flipD flip

Lean DLean D

● Tanya F. Miller● Brian Strickland

78%22%

73%27%

Runoff 18%

Secretary of StateD flipD flip

Lean DLean D

● Penny Reynolds● Tim Fleming

73%27%

Runoff 20%

Ratings

Solid D1

U.S. Senate

Lean D3

Toss-up1

Governorrisk

Likely D1

U.S. Senate

Lean D3

Toss-up1

Governorrisk

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties.

The Georgia environment

The environment Georgia's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.

National environment: D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
Georgia state offices vs. the nation: −1.6± 3.9 (80% range) · 2 polled state races
Georgia state-office environment: D+8.01.6 pts more Republican than the nation

The polled state races behind it

Over time

Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Georgia environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.

U.S. House

14 districts. The national House forecast.

Solid D5

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R4

Solid R5

Solid D4

Likely D1

GA-2

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R1

GA-12

Likely R4

Solid R4

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans).

Atlanta

14 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
GA-1Runoff 6%	● Amanda Hollowell● Jim Kingston	6%94% 17%83%	R+11.6R+8.6	Likely RLikely R	R+16	—
GA-2Runoff 2%	● Sanford BishopINC● Matt Day	98%2% 94%6%	D+18.5D+15.1	Solid DLikely D	D+8	—
GA-3	● Maura Keller● Brian JackINC	2%98% 4%96%	R+16.8R+15.7	Solid RSolid R	R+30	1
GA-4	● Hank JohnsonINC● James Duffie	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+59.5D+61.6	Solid DSolid D	D+54	—
GA-5	● Nikema WilliamsINC● John Oscar Salvesen	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+76.4D+79.2	Solid DSolid D	D+73	—
GA-6	● Lucy McBathINC● Kevin Martin	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+56.7D+57.7	Solid DSolid D	D+50	—
GA-7Runoff 2%	● Tony Kozycki● Rich McCormickINC	9%91% 18%82%	R+9.3R+7.2	Likely RLikely R	R+22	2
GA-8	● Kelly Esti● Austin ScottINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+25.7R+23.0	Solid RSolid R	R+30	—
GA-9	● Caitlyn Gegen● Andrew ClydeINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+26.8R+26.7	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
GA-10Runoff 2%	● Pam Delancy● Houston Gaines	1%99% 7%93%	R+17.1R+13.3	Solid RLikely R	R+20	—
GA-11Runoff 2%	● Chris Harden● John Cowan	9%91% 16%84%	R+10.3R+8.8	Likely RLikely R	R+23	1
GA-12Runoff 9%	● Ceretta Smith● Rick AllenINC	9%91% 25%75%	R+9.6R+6.1	Likely RLean R	R+13	—
GA-13	● Jasmine Clark● Jonathan Chavez	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+47.9D+49.4	Solid DSolid D	D+42	—
GA-14	● Shawn Harris● Clay FullerINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+26.7R+29.8	Solid RSolid R	R+37	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.

Georgia General Assembly

Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.

Georgia State Senate

Dem.

Rep.

99%

Avg. 24 D – 32 R seats · 29 for control

Dem.

Rep.

95%

Avg. 25 D – 31 R seats · 29 for control

Full forecast

Georgia State Senate ratings

No seat is projected to change parties. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D23

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up1

SD-48risk

Lean R1

SD-37

Likely R4

Solid R27

Solid D23

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up1

SD-48risk

Lean R3

Likely R6

Solid R23

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.

Georgia House of Representatives

Avg. 87 D – 93 R seats · 91 for control

Avg. 89 D – 91 R seats · 91 for control

Full forecast

Georgia House of Representatives ratings

4 seats projected to flip: 4 R→D. 4 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

7 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D, 1 D→R. 5 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D78

Likely D4

Lean D1

HD-48flip

Toss-up4

Lean R5

Likely R8

Solid R80

Solid D75

Likely D7

Lean D3

Toss-up5

Lean R7

Likely R13

Solid R70

Closest legislative races

HD-128Tyrone EvansTrey SheppardFlip riskFlip riskRunoff 21%51%Dem.55%Dem. HD-45Michelle SchreinerSharon CooperFlip riskD flipRunoff 21%51%Dem.62%Dem. HD-49Teresa LinChuck MartinFlip riskFlip riskRunoff 21%55%Rep.55%Dem. SD-48Laura MurvartianShawn StillFlip riskFlip riskRunoff 22%55%Dem.58%Dem. HD-121Eric GislerMack GuestFlip riskR flipRunoff 21%58%Dem.65%Rep. HD-44Danielle BellDon ParsonsFlip riskRunoff 21%62%Rep.60%Rep.

HD-154Harry JamesGerald GreeneD flipRunoff 17%63%Rep.73%Dem. HD-34Titus NicholsDevan SeabaughRunoff 20%68%Rep.60%Rep. SD-37Darcy CastroEd SetzlerRunoff 20%68%Rep.62%Rep. HD-48Adam ClevelandScott HiltonD flipD flipRunoff 18%72%Dem.82%Dem. HD-46Dumont WalkerJohn CarsonFlip riskRunoff 17%74%Rep.59%Rep. HD-147Renita DuncanBethany BallardRunoff 15%80%Rep.63%Rep.

How Georgia votes

Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.

Runoff if no majority

A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.