Michigan · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Michigan State Senate?

All 38 seats are on the ballot. 20 seats make a majority. The lieutenant governor breaks ties, but passing a bill takes 20 votes. 26 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Democrats are clearly favored to control the Michigan State Senate (94%).

Democrats

94%

chance of control

Republicans

Avg. D seats: 21.980% range 19–24
Avg. R seats: 16.180% range 14–19
Now: 20 D · 18 R38 up this year

Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (26+ seats): 3%

20 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party18 R now

Tie: The lieutenant governor breaks ties, but passing a bill takes 20 votes.

Democrats are favored to control the Michigan State Senate (76%).

Democrats

76%

chance of control

Republicans

24%

Avg. D seats: 20.480% range 17–24
Avg. R seats: 17.680% range 14–21
Now: 20 D · 18 R38 up this year

Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (26+ seats): 2%

20 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party18 R now

Tie: The lieutenant governor breaks ties, but passing a bill takes 20 votes.

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 38 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D16

Show 10 more

Likely D4

Lean D1

SD-12

Toss-up2

Lean R0

Likely R4

Solid R11

Solid D12

Likely D5

Lean D3

Toss-up2

Lean R2

Likely R3

Solid R11

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Michigan

Detroit

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

SD-32Rebecca AmidonKim ColeFlip risk51%Dem.61%Rep. SD-9Theresa BrooksMichael WebberFlip riskFlip risk52%Dem.56%Dem. SD-12Kevin HertelJohn GoldwaterFlip risk78%Dem.59%Rep.

Most likely to flip

SD-30Carol GlanvilleMark HuizengaD flipD flip93%to flip84%to flip SD-9Theresa BrooksMichael WebberFlip riskFlip risk52%to flip56%to flip SD-32Rebecca AmidonKim ColeFlip risk51%to flip39%to flip SD-12Kevin HertelJohn GoldwaterFlip risk22%to flip59%to flip SD-31Chris KleinjansJohn Wetzel19%to flip9%to flip SD-37Kate GallupJohn Damoose15%to flip21%to flip SD-13Sean CarlsonRyan Berman15%to flip31%to flip SD-20Dale MurneyChris Moraitis9%to flip11%to flip SD-38Kelli van GinhovenDavid Prestin6%to flip9%to flip SD-35Chedrick GreeneJason Tunney6%to flip25%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

38 races.

38 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
SD-1	● Justin Onwenu● Patrick O'Connell	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+55.8D+58.8	Solid DSolid D	D+54	—
SD-2	● Abbas Alawieh● Harry SawickiAlso: Larry Betts (WCP)	97%3% 83%18%	D+15.8D+8.9	Solid DLikely D	D+4	—
SD-3	● John Conyers III● Mark Ashley PriceAlso: David Roehrig (WCP)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+82.6D+85.4	Solid DSolid D	D+82	—
SD-4	● Darrin CamilleriINC● Marcie GrzywaczAlso: Beth Ann Socia (CST), Walter Willis (WCP)	95%5% 76%24%	D+13.0D+6.6	Solid DLean D	D+1	—
SD-5	● Matt Koleszar● Estelle Oliansky	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+24.9D+22.0	Solid DSolid D	D+17	—
SD-6	● Mary CavanaghINC● Joi Pokerwinski	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+77.6D+83.3	Solid DSolid D	D+79	—
SD-7	● Jason Hoskins● Anthony Paesano	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+44.2D+43.8	Solid DSolid D	D+38	—
SD-8	● Dayna Polehanki● Kenneth D. Massey	99%1% 96%4%	D+21.8D+17.7	Solid DSolid D	D+12	—
SD-9Flip riskFlip risk	● Theresa Brooks● Michael WebberINCAlso: Jacob Schodowski (WCP), Philippe M. Cicchini (I)	52%48% 56%44%	D+0.4D+1.5	Toss-upToss-up	R+4	—
SD-10	● Natalie Price● Michelle Nard	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+41.4D+37.3	Solid DSolid D	D+32	—
SD-11	● Veronica KlinefeltINC● Johnnie Townsend	95%5% 82%18%	D+12.2D+8.6	Likely DLikely D	D+5	—
SD-12Flip risk	● Kevin HertelINC● John Goldwater	78%22% 41%59%	D+5.7R+2.1	Lean DToss-up	R+7	—
SD-13	● Sean Carlson● Ryan Berman	85%15% 69%31%	D+7.5D+4.7	Likely DLean D	R+1	—
SD-14	● Sue ShinkINC● Tawn Shawnelle Beliger	99%1% 92%8%	D+19.9D+13.4	Solid DLikely D	D+10	—
SD-15	● Felicia Brabec● Jason Rogers	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+47.5D+49.3	Solid DSolid D	D+45	—
SD-16	● Deandre Barnes● Joe BellinoINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+21.6R+24.4	Solid RSolid R	R+29	—
SD-17	● Ashleigh Baker● Jonathan LindseyINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+23.2R+25.2	Solid RSolid R	R+30	—
SD-18	● Anthony Pennock● Thomas AlbertINC	1%99% 3%97%	R+16.9R+19.0	Solid RSolid R	R+24	—
SD-19	● Julie Rogers● Shaun Young	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+23.2D+22.1	Solid DSolid D	D+18	—
SD-20	● Dale Murney● Chris MoraitisAlso: Shamara Clay (G)	9%91% 11%89%	R+9.8R+11.7	Likely RLikely R	R+16	—
SD-21	● Sarah AnthonyINC● Josh Burns	>99%<1% 96%4%	D+22.1D+17.8	Solid DSolid D	D+14	—
SD-22	● Rob Hower● Mike Murphy	1%99% 3%97%	R+18.0R+20.0	Solid RSolid R	R+24	—
SD-23	● Greg Hill● Donni Steele	2%98% 4%96%	R+16.5R+18.2	Solid RSolid R	R+23	—
SD-24	● Edlira Sako● Doug Wozniak	1%99% 2%98%	R+19.0R+22.0	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
SD-25	● April Osentoski● Andrew Beeler	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+29.5R+32.2	Solid RSolid R	R+37	—
SD-26	● Brendan J. Johnson● Matthew Bierlein	1%99% 2%98%	R+19.0R+21.8	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
SD-27	● John Daniel CherryINC● Bill Bain	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+28.0D+24.7	Solid DSolid D	D+20	—
SD-28	● Rashida Harrison● Julie DeRoseAlso: Brandon Crabill (L), Wes Peterson (WCP)	98%2% 92%8%	D+15.5D+13.8	Solid DLikely D	D+10	—
SD-29	● Abbie Groff-Blaszak● Brady Middleton	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+32.9D+32.3	Solid DSolid D	D+27	—
SD-30D flipD flip	● Carol Glanville● Mark HuizengaINC	93%7% 84%16%	D+10.6D+9.4	Likely DLikely D	D+4	—
SD-31	● Chris Kleinjans● John Wetzel	19%81% 9%91%	R+6.3R+13.2	Likely RLikely R	R+19	—
SD-32Flip risk	● Rebecca Amidon● Kim Cole	51%49% 39%61%	D+0.1R+2.6	Toss-upLean R	R+7	—
SD-33	● Stan Opan● Gina Johnsen	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+26.3R+30.2	Solid RSolid R	R+35	—
SD-34	● Tyler Landgraf● Roger HauckINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+23.3R+26.2	Solid RSolid R	R+31	—
SD-35	● Chedrick GreeneINC● Jason TunneyAlso: Laurie Atwood (CST)	94%6% 75%25%	D+11.6D+6.2	Likely DLean D	D+1	—
SD-36	● Mark Yonkman● Michele HoitengaINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+27.6R+32.8	Solid RSolid R	R+37	—
SD-37	● Kate Gallup● John DamooseINC	15%85% 21%79%	R+7.7R+7.7	Likely RLean R	R+11	—
SD-38	● Kelli van Ginhoven● David PrestinAlso: Sara Cambensy (I)	6%94% 9%91%	R+11.5R+13.4	Likely RLikely R	R+18	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).