Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Independent, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
Connecticut · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Who will control the Connecticut State Senate?
All 36 seats are on the ballot. 19 seats make a majority. The lieutenant governor breaks ties. 24 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.
Democrats are very likely to control the Connecticut State Senate (>99%).
Democrats
>99%
chance of control
Republicans
<1%
- Avg. D seats
- 31.480% range 29–34
- Avg. R seats
- 4.680% range 2–7
- Now
- 25 D · 11 R36 up this year
Democratic supermajority now (25 of 36 seats; 24 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.
25 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party11 R now
Tie: The lieutenant governor breaks ties.
Democrats are very likely to control the Connecticut State Senate (>99%).
Democrats
>99%
chance of control
Republicans
<1%
- Avg. D seats
- 32.480% range 29–35
- Avg. R seats
- 3.680% range 1–7
- Now
- 25 D · 11 R36 up this year
Democratic supermajority now (25 of 36 seats; 24 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.
25 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party11 R now
Tie: The lieutenant governor breaks ties.
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Race ratings
All 36 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.
6 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
8 seats projected to flip: 8 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.
The map
Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.
Connecticut
Hartford
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Seats to watch
The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.
Closest races
SD-34Brandi MandatoPaul CicarellaFlip riskD flip51%Rep.68%Dem. SD-30Aaron ZimmerStephen HardingFlip riskD flip51%Dem.72%Dem. SD-35Ethan WerstlerJeff GordonD flipD flip65%Dem.82%Dem. SD-16Jack PerryRobert SampsonFlip risk74%Rep.54%Rep. SD-21Carolann ReidJason PerilloD flipD flip76%Dem.85%Dem. SD-18Joe de la CruzHeather SomersD flipD flip77%Dem.87%Dem.
Most likely to flip
SD-36Jill OberlanderJoseph KellyD flipD flip98%to flip99%to flip SD-28Rob BlanchardAmybeth LarocheD flipD flip97%to flip99%to flip SD-7David KinerJohn KisselD flipD flip84%to flip88%to flip SD-18Joe de la CruzHeather SomersD flipD flip77%to flip87%to flip SD-21Carolann ReidJason PerilloD flipD flip76%to flip85%to flip SD-35Ethan WerstlerJeff GordonD flipD flip65%to flip82%to flip SD-30Aaron ZimmerStephen HardingFlip riskD flip51%to flip72%to flip SD-34Brandi MandatoPaul CicarellaFlip riskD flip49%to flip68%to flip SD-16Jack PerryRobert SampsonFlip risk26%to flip46%to flip SD-32Matt KnickerbockerEric Berthel17%to flip33%to flip
How this chamber is elected
Rules that shape these races and the forecast.
How the odds have moved
Chance of winning control, by forecast date.
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Every outcome we simulated
Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.
Every race
36 races, 7 without a contest between the major parties.
36 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD-1 | ● John FonfaraINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+44 | — | |
| SD-2 | ● Maryam Khan● Tim Knotts | D+63.9D+68.4 | D+63 | — | ||
| SD-3 | ● Saud AnwarINC● Elliot Hughes | D+33.1D+32.4 | D+25 | — | ||
| SD-4 | ● MD RahmanINC● Jenn Jennings | D+32.2D+35.2 | D+28 | — | ||
| SD-5 | ● Derek SlapINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+39 | — | |
| SD-6 | ● Rick LopesINC● Tremell Collins | D+24.3D+22.5 | D+15 | — | ||
| SD-7D flipD flip | ● David Kiner● John KisselINC | D+7.1D+11.1 | D+5 | — | ||
| SD-8 | ● Paul HonigINC● Mike Criss | D+17.4D+17.4 | D+12 | — | ||
| SD-9 | ● Matt LesserINC● Grant Polomsky | D+30.0D+23.5 | D+16 | — | ||
| SD-10 | ● Gary WinfieldINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+55 | — | |
| SD-11 | ● Al Paolillo● No RepublicanAlso: Rosa Pepper-Macias (OTH) | No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot | — | D+58 | — | |
| SD-12 | ● Christine CohenINC● Lisa Deane | D+22.2D+18.7 | D+14 | — | ||
| SD-13 | ● Jack Fazzino● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+17 | — | |
| SD-14 | ● James MaroneyINC● Owen Weaver | D+18.3D+14.1 | D+7 | — | ||
| SD-15 | ● Joan HartleyINC● Ruben Rodriguez | D+22.7D+15.6 | D+10 | — | ||
| SD-16Flip risk | ● Jack Perry● Robert SampsonINC | R+4.6R+1.0 | R+8 | — | ||
| SD-17 | ● Jorge CabreraINC● John-Paul Dorais | D+27.6D+22.2 | D+15 | — | ||
| SD-18D flipD flip | ● Joe de la Cruz● Heather SomersINC | D+5.5D+10.3 | D+6 | — | ||
| SD-19 | ● Catherine OstenINC● Jason Guidone | D+16.6D+12.9 | D+8 | — | ||
| SD-20 | ● Martha MarxINC● Lee Elci | D+25.4D+24.1 | D+19 | — | ||
| SD-21D flipD flip | ● Carolann Reid● Jason PerilloINC | D+5.1D+9.8 | D+2 | — | ||
| SD-22 | ● Sujata Gadkar-WilcoxINC● Scott Modlin | D+30.1D+29.2 | D+21 | — | ||
| SD-23 | ● Herron GastonINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+50 | — | |
| SD-24 | ● Julie KushnerINC● Melissa Lindsey | D+19.1D+20.8 | D+12 | — | ||
| SD-25 | ● Bob DuffINC● Justin Perry | D+37.3D+37.9 | D+30 | — | ||
| SD-26 | ● Samantha Nestor● Alma Sarelli | D+37.5D+42.0 | D+36 | — | ||
| SD-27 | ● Patricia Billie MillerINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+29 | — | |
| SD-28D flipD flip | ● Rob Blanchard● Amybeth Laroche | D+16.8D+26.0 | D+19 | — | ||
| SD-29 | ● Mae FlexerINC● Christopher Reddy | D+12.9D+9.3 | D+5 | — | ||
| SD-30Flip riskD flip | ● Aaron Zimmer● Stephen HardingINC | D+0.2D+5.5 | D+1 | — | ||
| SD-31Flip risk | ● Laurel LaPorte-Grimes● Henri MartinINC | R+8.1R+0.1 | R+7 | — | ||
| SD-32 | ● Matt Knickerbocker● Eric BerthelINC | R+7.1R+4.0 | R+10 | — | ||
| SD-33 | ● Norman NeedlemanINC● Charles Ferraro | D+15.5D+14.4 | D+10 | — | ||
| SD-34Flip riskD flip | ● Brandi Mandato● Paul CicarellaINC | R+0.1D+4.3 | R+3 | — | ||
| SD-35D flipD flip | ● Ethan Werstler● Jeff GordonINC | D+3.0D+8.3 | D+4 | — | ||
| SD-36D flipD flip | ● Jill Oberlander● Joseph Kelly | D+19.3D+28.0 | D+21 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.