Indiana · 2026 forecast · Midwest region · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Indiana in 2026

Indiana elects a secretary of state, a treasurer, an auditor, all 9 members of the U.S. House, 25 of 50 members of the State Senate and all 100 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.

On the November 3 ballot: 3 statewide offices · 9 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.

U.S. House: 2.1 D · 6.9 R2.1 D · 6.9 RExpected seats of 9
Indiana State Senate: R >99%R >99%Chance of control · 25 of 50 seats up
Indiana House of Representatives: R >99%R >99%Chance of control · 100 of 100 seats up
Secretary of State: R 63%D 55%Beau Bayh vs. Max Engling + 2 more
Treasurer: R 96%R 83%Coumba Kebe vs. Daniel Elliott
Auditor: R 96%R 78%Jessica Bailey vs. Elise Nieshalla

Trifecta
Statewide
Environment
U.S. House
General Assembly
Election rules

U.S. House districts · Indiana

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Trifecta

Republican trifecta now

Republicans hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.

After the election

Dem. trifecta: <1%
Divided: <1%
Rep. trifecta: >99%

The Republican trifecta most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance it is broken.

After the election

Dem. trifecta: <1%
Divided: <1%
Rep. trifecta: >99%

The Republican trifecta most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance it is broken.

Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.

Statewide races

Every race decided by the whole state. Statewide offices nationwide.

Statewide offices

Secretary of StateFlip risk

Lean RToss-up

● Beau Bayh● Max EnglingAlso: Lauri Shillings (L), Greg Ballard (I)

37%63%

55%45%

Treasurer

Solid RLikely R

● Coumba Kebe● Daniel ElliottINC

4%96%

17%83%

Auditor

Solid RLean R

● Jessica Bailey● Elise NieshallaINC

4%96%

22%78%

Ratings

Lean R1

Secretary of State

Solid R2

Toss-up1

Secretary of Staterisk

Lean R1

Auditor

Likely R1

Treasurer

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties.

The Indiana environment

The environment Indiana's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.

National environment: D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
Indiana state offices vs. the nation: +1.3± 4.2 (80% range) · 2 polled state races
Indiana state-office environment: D+10.81.3 pts more Democratic than the nation

The polled state races behind it

Over time

Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Indiana environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.

U.S. House

9 districts. The national House forecast.

Solid D2

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R1

IN-5

Solid R6

Solid D1

IN-7

Likely D1

IN-1

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R1

IN-5

Solid R6

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans).

Indianapolis

9 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
IN-1	● Frank MrvanINC● Barb Regnitz	98%2% 87%13%	D+14.9D+9.9	Solid DLikely D	D+2	—
IN-2	● Jamee Decio● Rudy YakymINC	1%99% 3%97%	R+19.2R+18.2	Solid RSolid R	R+26	—
IN-3	● Kelly Thompson● Marlin StutzmanINC	1%99% 1%99%	R+20.2R+22.7	Solid RSolid R	R+31	—
IN-4	● Drew Cox● Jim BairdINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+21.9R+22.4	Solid RSolid R	R+30	—
IN-5	● J. D. Ford● Victoria SpartzINC	9%91% 13%87%	R+7.8R+7.9	Likely RLikely R	R+17	1
IN-6	● Cinde Wirth● Jefferson ShreveINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+23.3R+25.0	Solid RSolid R	R+33	—
IN-7	● André CarsonINC● Patrick McAuley	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+51.4D+50.7	Solid DSolid D	D+43	—
IN-8	● Mary Allen● Mark MessmerINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+24.8R+27.6	Solid RSolid R	R+35	—
IN-9	● Brad Meyer● Erin HouchinINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+21.4R+22.5	Solid RSolid R	R+30	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).

Indiana General Assembly

Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.

Indiana State Senate

Avg. 12 D – 38 R seats · 26 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds

Avg. 12 D – 38 R seats · 26 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds

25 of 50 seats up; 25 holdovers.

Full forecast

Indiana State Senate ratings

2 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D.

1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D3

Likely D1

SD-31flip

Lean D1

SD-1flip

Toss-up0

Lean R1

SD-11

Likely R2

Solid R17

Solid D2

Likely D1

SD-31flip

Lean D1

SD-4

Toss-up1

SD-1risk

Lean R1

SD-11

Likely R5

Solid R14

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.

Indiana House of Representatives

Avg. 34 D – 66 R seats · 51 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds

Avg. 34 D – 66 R seats · 51 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds

Full forecast

Indiana House of Representatives ratings

3 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D, 1 Ind.→R. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

4 seats projected to flip: 3 R→D, 1 Ind.→R. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D27

Likely D3

Lean D2

Toss-up1

HD-62risk

Lean R5

Likely R7

Solid R55

Solid D24

Likely D3

Lean D5

Toss-up2

Lean R7

Likely R9

Solid R50

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans, ■ another party). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.

Closest legislative races

HD-62Amy Huffman OliverDave HallFlip riskD flip51%Dem.75%Dem. HD-24Racheal BleicherHunter SmithFlip risk60%Rep.56%Rep. HD-72Michele HenryDarrell NeeleyR flipR flip62%Rep.69%Rep. HD-5Alex WaitDale DeVon63%Rep.60%Rep. HD-4Ryan KominakisEdmond Soliday69%Rep.63%Rep. HD-39Lindsay GramlichDanny LopezD flipD flip69%Dem.73%Dem.

HD-25Tiffany StonerBecky CashD flipD flip70%Dem.62%Dem. SD-11Gabrianna GratzolBrian Schmutzler71%Rep.76%Rep. HD-88Stephanie Jo YocumChris Jeter75%Rep.70%Rep. SD-1Scott HouldiesonTrevor De VriesD flipFlip risk75%Dem.56%Dem. HD-36Kim TownsendKyle Pierce80%Rep.74%Rep. SD-31Kerry ForestalJuanita AlbrightD flipD flip90%Dem.82%Dem.

How Indiana votes

Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.

Staggered Senate

Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.

25 of 50 seats on the ballot; 25 holdovers (7 D, 18 R) serve until a later election.

Simple-majority veto override

A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto.