California · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the California State Assembly?

All 80 seats are on the ballot. 41 seats make a majority. 54 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Democrats are very likely to control the California State Assembly (>99%).

Democrats

>99%

chance of control

Republicans

<1%

Avg. D seats: 64.680% range 61–68
Avg. R seats: 15.480% range 12–19
Now: 60 D · 19 R · 1 vacant80 up this year

Democratic supermajority now (60 of 80 seats; 54 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

60 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party19 R now

Democrats are very likely to control the California State Assembly (>99%).

Democrats

>99%

chance of control

Republicans

<1%

Avg. D seats: 65.280% range 61–69
Avg. R seats: 14.880% range 11–19
Now: 60 D · 19 R · 1 vacant80 up this year

Democratic supermajority now (60 of 80 seats; 54 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

60 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party19 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 80 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

6 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

7 seats projected to flip: 7 R→D.

Solid D58

Show 52 more

Likely D3

Lean D5

Toss-up1

AD-70risk

Lean R0

Likely R3

Solid R10

Solid D54

Show 48 more

Likely D7

Lean D6

Toss-up0

Lean R2

Likely R4

Solid R7

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

California

Los Angeles

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

AD-70Paula SwiftTri TaFlip riskD flip59%Rep.62%Dem. AD-36Ida Obeso-MartinezJeff GonzalezD flipD flip65%Dem.79%Dem. AD-7Amy SlavenskyJosh HooverD flipD flip66%Dem.81%Dem. AD-72Chris KluweGracey Van Der MarkD flipD flip66%Dem.64%Dem. AD-74Sergio FariasLaurie DaviesD flipD flip67%Dem.79%Dem. AD-47Leila NamvarGreg WallisD flipD flip68%Dem.85%Dem.

Most likely to flip

AD-58Clarissa CervantesLeticia CastilloD flipD flip81%to flip87%to flip AD-47Leila NamvarGreg WallisD flipD flip68%to flip85%to flip AD-74Sergio FariasLaurie DaviesD flipD flip67%to flip79%to flip AD-72Chris KluweGracey Van Der MarkD flipD flip66%to flip64%to flip AD-7Amy SlavenskyJosh HooverD flipD flip66%to flip81%to flip AD-36Ida Obeso-MartinezJeff GonzalezD flipD flip65%to flip79%to flip AD-70Paula SwiftTri TaFlip riskD flip41%to flip62%to flip AD-71JJ GalvezKate Sanchez15%to flip27%to flip AD-27Brian PachecoMike Murphy14%to flip33%to flip AD-5Neva ParkerJoe Patterson9%to flip22%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Top-two primary

All candidates run in one primary regardless of party and the two with the most votes advance, so two candidates of the same party can meet in November. The forecast then marks the seat as safe for that party.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

80 races, 19 without a contest between the major parties.

80 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
AD-1	● Dianna Margaret James● Heather HadwickINC	2%98% 10%90%	R+19.3R+12.4	Solid RLikely R	R+16	—
AD-2	● Chris RogersINC● Michael Greer	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+39.3D+38.9	Solid DSolid D	D+38	—
AD-3R vs R	● No Democrat● Dom BelzaAlso: James "Jamie" Johansson (R)	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+18	—
AD-4	● Cecilia Aguiar-CurryINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+32	—
AD-5	● Neva Parker● Joe PattersonINC	9%91% 22%78%	R+10.0R+7.2	Likely RLean R	R+11	—
AD-6D vs D	● Maggy KrellINC● No RepublicanAlso: Jagtar Singh (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+36	—
AD-7D flipD flip	● Amy Slavensky● Josh HooverINC	66%34% 81%19%	D+3.1D+8.2	Lean DLikely D	D+5	—
AD-8	● No Democrat● David TangipaINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+17	—
AD-9	● Matthew Adams● Heath FloraINC	1%99% 5%95%	R+22.0R+17.3	Solid RSolid R	R+22	—
AD-10	● Stephanie NguyenINC● Vinaya Singh	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+35.9D+34.6	Solid DSolid D	D+31	—
AD-11	● Lori WilsonINC● No RepublicanAlso: Jenny Leilani Callison (I)	No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot	—	Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)	D+22	—
AD-12D vs D	● Jackie Elward● No RepublicanAlso: Eric Lucan (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+58	—
AD-13	● Rhodesia RansomINC● Tom Patti	>99%1% 97%3%	D+22.8D+21.0	Solid DSolid D	D+18	—
AD-14	● Buffy WicksINC● No RepublicanAlso: Mark Rendon (G)	No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot	—	Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)	D+76	—
AD-15	● Anamarie Avila FariasINC● No RepublicanAlso: Arthur Webb (I)	No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot	—	Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)	D+35	—
AD-16	● Rebecca Bauer-KahanINC● Joseph Rubay	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+38.5D+42.0	Solid DSolid D	D+39	—
AD-17	● Matt HaneyINC● Manuel Noris-Barrera	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+68.8D+75.2	Solid DSolid D	D+72	—
AD-18D vs D	● Mia BontaINC● No RepublicanAlso: Andre Sandford (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+78	—
AD-19	● Catherine StefaniINC● Philip Wing	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+60.2D+64.8	Solid DSolid D	D+62	—
AD-20	● Liz OrtegaINC● Patricia Muga	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+47.1D+48.8	Solid DSolid D	D+45	—
AD-21	● Diane PapanINC● Jabra Muhawieh	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+53.2D+57.1	Solid DSolid D	D+54	—
AD-22	● No Democrat● Juan AlanisINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+5	—
AD-23	● Marc BermanINC● David Johnson	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+56.8D+60.1	Solid DSolid D	D+58	—
AD-24	● Alex LeeINC● Max Hsia	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+38.8D+40.3	Solid DSolid D	D+35	—
AD-25	● Ash KalraINC● Himat Singh Bainiwal	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+40.3D+41.1	Solid DSolid D	D+36	—
AD-26	● Patrick AhrensINC● Tim Gorsulowsky	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+52.1D+53.4	Solid DSolid D	D+49	—
AD-27	● Brian Pacheco● Mike Murphy	86%14% 67%33%	D+8.6D+4.3	Likely DLean D	D+1	—
AD-28	● Gail PellerinINC● Carol Pefley	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+45.4D+49.8	Solid DSolid D	D+47	—
AD-29	● Robert RivasINC● Dennis Sanchez	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+35.9D+32.6	Solid DSolid D	D+28	—
AD-30	● Dawn AddisINC● Shannon Kessler	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+32.7D+32.7	Solid DSolid D	D+29	—
AD-31	● Annalisa Perea● Jim Polsgrove	>99%<1% 97%3%	D+23.4D+20.5	Solid DSolid D	D+18	—
AD-32	● No Democrat● David Couch	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+33	—
AD-33	● Hipolito Cerros● Alexandra MacedoINC	3%97% 12%88%	R+18.4R+12.0	Solid RLikely R	R+15	—
AD-34	● Randall Putz● Charles Hughes	6%94% 8%92%	R+11.5R+13.9	Likely RLikely R	R+19	—
AD-35	● Andrae Gonzales● Saul Ayon	92%8% 77%23%	D+11.9D+7.8	Likely DLean D	D+6	—
AD-36D flipD flip	● Ida Obeso-Martinez● Jeff GonzalezINC	65%35% 79%21%	D+3.2D+8.1	Lean DLean D	D+3	—
AD-37	● Gregg HartINC● Sari Domingues	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+32.1D+30.1	Solid DSolid D	D+26	—
AD-38D vs D	● Steve BennettINC● No RepublicanAlso: Michael MacDonald (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+27	—
AD-39	● Juan CarrilloINC● Paul Marsh	99%1% 95%5%	D+20.2D+17.2	Solid DLikely D	D+14	—
AD-40	● Pilar SchiavoINC● Rickey Hayes II	98%2% 92%8%	D+17.2D+14.1	Solid DLikely D	D+11	—
AD-41	● John HarabedianINC● Adam Vena	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+27.8D+26.6	Solid DSolid D	D+23	—
AD-42	● Deborah Klein Lopez● Ted Nordblum	99%1% 98%2%	D+19.6D+20.9	Solid DSolid D	D+16	—
AD-43	● Celeste RodriguezINC● Ricardo Benitez	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+39.4D+40.2	Solid DSolid D	D+36	—
AD-44	● Nick SchultzINC● Carolyn Daniels	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+39.9D+39.4	Solid DSolid D	D+35	—
AD-45	● James RamosINC● Greg Abdouch	>99%<1% 97%3%	D+24.6D+20.6	Solid DSolid D	D+17	—
AD-46	● Jesse GabrielINC● Tracey Schroeder	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+35.7D+32.9	Solid DSolid D	D+30	—
AD-47D flipD flip	● Leila Namvar● Greg WallisINC	68%32% 85%15%	D+3.7D+10.1	Lean DLikely D	D+5	—
AD-48	● Blanca RubioINC● Dan Tran	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+24.7D+25.2	Solid DSolid D	D+21	—
AD-49	● Mike FongINC● Long David Liu	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+34.0D+33.2	Solid DSolid D	D+27	—
AD-50	● Robert GarciaINC● Victoria Viveros Mageno	99%1% 95%5%	D+26.2D+17.3	Solid DLikely D	D+14	—
AD-51D vs D	● Rick ZburINC● No RepublicanAlso: Colin Hernandez (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+55	—
AD-52	● Jessica CalozaINC● Andrea Lee Anderson	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+57.5D+61.8	Solid DSolid D	D+58	—
AD-53	● Michelle RodriguezINC● Rafaela Romero	>99%<1% 97%3%	D+23.3D+20.3	Solid DSolid D	D+17	—
AD-54	● Mark GonzalezINC● Alexandra Briseno	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+53.2D+54.7	Solid DSolid D	D+49	—
AD-55D vs D	● Isaac BryanINC● No RepublicanAlso: Ashley Brown (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+66	—
AD-56	● Lisa CalderonINC● Jessica Martinez	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+26.8D+27.3	Solid DSolid D	D+22	—
AD-57	● Sade ElhawaryINC● Constance Menzies	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+60.2D+64.6	Solid DSolid D	D+60	—
AD-58D flipD flip	● Clarissa Cervantes● Leticia CastilloINC	81%19% 87%13%	D+7.3D+11.4	Likely DLikely D	D+8	—
AD-59	● No Democrat● Phillip ChenINCAlso: Victor Hernandez (G)	No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot	—	Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)	R+5	—
AD-60	● Corey JacksonINC● Ed Delgado	99%1% 94%6%	D+18.9D+16.5	Solid DLikely D	D+13	—
AD-61	● Tina McKinnorINC● Brian Lockwood	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+59.8D+65.4	Solid DSolid D	D+61	—
AD-62	● José SolacheINC● Paul Irving Jones	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+39.3D+38.9	Solid DSolid D	D+34	—
AD-63	● No Democrat● Natasha JohnsonINCAlso: Kevin Akin (PF)	No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot	—	Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)	R+11	—
AD-64	● Blanca PachecoINC● Raul Ortiz Jr.	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+27.1D+25.4	Solid DSolid D	D+21	—
AD-65	● Ayanna Davis● Lydia Gutiérrez	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+51.0D+53.5	Solid DSolid D	D+49	—
AD-66D vs D	● Sara Deen● No RepublicanAlso: Paul Seo (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+25	—
AD-67	● Mark Pulido● Paulo Morales	99%1% 95%5%	D+20.5D+17.6	Solid DSolid D	D+13	—
AD-68D vs D	● Jessie Lopez● No RepublicanAlso: David Penaloza (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+26	—
AD-69D vs D	● Josh LowenthalINC● No RepublicanAlso: Carolyn Essex (D)	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+41	—
AD-70Flip riskD flip	● Paula Swift● Tri TaINC	41%59% 62%38%	R+1.8D+3.0	Toss-upLean D	R+2	—
AD-71	● JJ Galvez● Kate SanchezINC	15%85% 27%73%	R+7.4R+5.9	Likely RLean R	R+11	—
AD-72D flipD flip	● Chris Kluwe● Gracey Van Der Mark	66%34% 64%36%	D+3.0D+3.4	Lean DLean D	R+2	—
AD-73	● Cottie Petrie-NorrisINC● Urson Russell	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+24.9D+23.9	Solid DSolid D	D+20	—
AD-74D flipD flip	● Sergio Farias● Laurie DaviesINC	67%33% 79%21%	D+3.4D+7.8	Lean DLean D	D+3	—
AD-75	● Gerald Boursiquot● Carl DeMaioINC	1%99% 19%81%	R+19.9R+8.4	Solid RLikely R	R+14	—
AD-76	● Darshana PatelINC● Carrie Espinoza Villanueva	99%1% 95%5%	D+19.7D+17.2	Solid DSolid D	D+14	—
AD-77	● Tasha BoernerINC● Trinity Hannaway	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+34.2D+35.9	Solid DSolid D	D+31	—
AD-78	● Chris WardINC● Payton Galvez	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+43.9D+41.3	Solid DSolid D	D+38	—
AD-79	● LaShae Sharp-CollinsINC● Andrew Lawson	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+36.0D+29.1	Solid DSolid D	D+26	—
AD-80	● David AlvarezINC● Alejandro Galicia	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+27.6D+25.4	Solid DSolid D	D+22	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.