Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.
25 of 50 seats on the ballot; 25 holdovers (9 D, 16 R) serve until a later election.
Montana · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Who will control the Montana State Senate?
25 of 50 seats are on the ballot; the others are elected in alternate years. 26 seats make a majority. 34 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.
Republicans are very likely to control the Montana State Senate (>99%).
Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
- Avg. D seats
- 19.280% range 18–21
- Avg. R seats
- 30.880% range 29–32
- Now
- 18 D · 32 R25 up this year
Chance Republicans win a two-thirds supermajority (34+ seats): 1%
18 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party32 R now
Republicans are very likely to control the Montana State Senate (>99%).
Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
- Avg. D seats
- 18.180% range 16–20
- Avg. R seats
- 31.980% range 30–34
- Now
- 18 D · 32 R25 up this year
Chance Republicans win a two-thirds supermajority (34+ seats): 10%
18 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party32 R now
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Holdover, not up this year
Race ratings
All 25 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.
2 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
2 seats projected to flip: 1 R→D, 1 D→R. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.
The map
Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Seats to watch
The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.
Closest races
Most likely to flip
SD-29Scott RosenzweigJason GundersonD flipD flip92%to flip70%to flip SD-10Margaret MitchellJessica DyrdahlD flipFlip risk69%to flip41%to flip SD-42Mary Ann DunwellStephen LapraimFlip riskR flip52%to flip83%to flip SD-12Mindy LeachGeorge Nikolakakos15%to flip13%to flip SD-11Valynda HollandSteven Galloway7%to flip8%to flip SD-23Emma Kerr-CarpenterJoAnna Oblander6%to flip26%to flip SD-25Julie HipplerDennis Lenz2%to flip3%to flip SD-32Kelly KortumNeal Ganser1%to flip7%to flip SD-8Tyson Running WolfChristopher Paul Buckles1%to flip5%to flip SD-49Willis CurdyBrad Tschida1%to flip2%to flip
How this chamber is elected
Rules that shape these races and the forecast.
How the odds have moved
Chance of winning control, by forecast date.
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Every outcome we simulated
Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.
Every race
25 races, 4 without a contest between the major parties.
25 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD-1 | ● Jonathan Russell Jameson● Steve Gunderson | R+45.4R+52.4 | R+55 | — | ||
| SD-4 | ● Kyle Waterman● Amy Regier | R+23.5R+28.3 | R+32 | — | ||
| SD-6 | ● Patrick Fitzpatrick● Mark NolandINC | R+35.1R+41.5 | R+43 | — | ||
| SD-8 | ● Tyson Running Wolf● Christopher Paul Buckles | D+20.4D+17.6 | D+12 | — | ||
| SD-9 | ● Noy Holland● Llew JonesAlso: Nate White (NPA) | R+39.8R+45.3 | R+49 | — | ||
| SD-10D flipFlip risk | ● Margaret Mitchell● Jessica Dyrdahl | D+3.5R+2.1 | R+7 | — | ||
| SD-11 | ● Valynda Holland● Steven Galloway | R+10.8R+13.8 | R+18 | — | ||
| SD-12 | ● Mindy Leach● George Nikolakakos | R+7.5R+10.8 | R+15 | — | ||
| SD-14 | ● Blake Borst● Eric Albus | R+33.4R+38.3 | R+40 | — | ||
| SD-18 | ● Stan Taylor● Greg Kmetz | R+47.7R+54.5 | R+57 | — | ||
| SD-19 | ● Deanna Daigrepont● Chris Rindal | R+49.1R+59.8 | R+61 | — | ||
| SD-22 | ● No Democrat● Daniel ZolnikovINCAlso: Elijah Tidswell (NPA), Cari Lynn Olson (NPA) | No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot | — | R+31 | — | |
| SD-23 | ● Emma Kerr-CarpenterINC● JoAnna Oblander | D+11.9D+6.1 | D+2 | — | ||
| SD-25 | ● Julie Hippler● Dennis LenzINC | R+17.2R+20.2 | R+24 | — | ||
| SD-28 | ● Kelly Hale● Forrest MandevilleINC | R+38.5R+46.1 | R+47 | — | ||
| SD-29D flipD flip | ● Scott Rosenzweig● Jason Gunderson | D+10.5D+4.9 | D+3 | — | ||
| SD-31 | ● Kathleen Williams● Richard Aungier | D+30.1D+26.1 | D+22 | — | ||
| SD-32 | ● Kelly Kortum● Neal Ganser | D+18.2D+15.2 | D+11 | — | ||
| SD-34 | ● Carl Anderson● Caleb Hinkle | R+27.3R+30.8 | R+34 | — | ||
| SD-41 | ● Erin Farris-Olsen● No RepublicanAlso: Dru Koester (L) | No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot | — | D+6 | — | |
| SD-42Flip riskR flip | ● Mary Ann DunwellINC● Stephen Lapraim | R+0.4R+9.0 | R+12 | — | ||
| SD-43 | ● Stephen Leuchtman● David Bedey | R+34.2R+37.8 | R+39 | — | ||
| SD-48 | ● Andrea OlsenINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+43 | — | |
| SD-49 | ● Willis CurdyINC● Brad Tschida | D+21.7D+20.7 | D+18 | — | ||
| SD-50 | ● Shane MorigeauINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+33 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).