Kentucky · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Kentucky House of Representatives?

All 100 seats are on the ballot. 51 seats make a majority. 51 make the majority supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are very likely to control the Kentucky House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 23.980% range 21–27
Avg. R seats: 76.180% range 73–79
Now: 20 D · 80 R100 up this year

Republican supermajority now (80 of 100 seats; 51 needed for majority): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

20 D nowMarks: majority supermajority for each party80 R now

Republicans are very likely to control the Kentucky House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 21.980% range 19–25
Avg. R seats: 78.180% range 75–81
Now: 20 D · 80 R100 up this year

Republican supermajority now (80 of 100 seats; 51 needed for majority): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

20 D nowMarks: majority supermajority for each party80 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 100 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

3 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D, 1 D→R. 4 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

3 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D, 1 D→R. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D19

Show 13 more

Likely D2

Lean D0

Toss-up4

Lean R3

Likely R3

Solid R69

Show 63 more

Solid D15

Show 9 more

Likely D3

Lean D3

Toss-up1

HD-33risk

Lean R4

Likely R2

Solid R72

Show 66 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Kentucky

Louisville

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

HD-29Cassie BlauseyChris LewisFlip risk52%Rep.66%Rep. HD-65Aaron John CurrinStephanie A. DietzFlip risk56%Rep.65%Rep. HD-33Jennifer HardinJason Michael NemesFlip riskFlip risk58%Dem.50%Rep. HD-28Almaria BakerJared A. BaumanFlip risk58%Rep.74%Rep. HD-36William "Woody" ZornJohn F. Hodgson61%Rep.69%Rep. HD-56David GravesDaniel A. Fister76%Rep.86%Rep. HD-39Ryan StanfordMatt Lockett76%Rep.83%Rep.

Most likely to flip

HD-95Johnny Ray TurnerTanner HesterbergR flipR flip>99%to flip>99%to flip HD-31Tim HallSusan Tyler WittenD flipD flip92%to flip85%to flip HD-48Suhas KulkarniKen FlemingD flipD flip88%to flip82%to flip HD-33Jennifer HardinJason Michael NemesFlip riskFlip risk58%to flip50%to flip HD-29Cassie BlauseyChris LewisFlip risk48%to flip34%to flip HD-65Aaron John CurrinStephanie A. DietzFlip risk44%to flip35%to flip HD-28Almaria BakerJared A. BaumanFlip risk42%to flip26%to flip HD-36William "Woody" ZornJohn F. Hodgson39%to flip31%to flip HD-56David GravesDaniel A. Fister24%to flip14%to flip HD-39Ryan StanfordMatt Lockett24%to flip17%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Simple-majority veto override

A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

100 races, 52 without a contest between the major parties.

100 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
HD-1	● No Democrat● Steven Jack RudyINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+49	—
HD-2	● No Democrat● Kim HollowayINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+58	—
HD-3	● Michael McVicker● Randy BridgesINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+22.2R+30.4	Solid RSolid R	R+36	—
HD-4	● No Democrat● D. Wade WilliamsINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+51	—
HD-5	● No Democrat● Mary Beth ImesINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+40	—
HD-6	● No Democrat● Chris FreelandINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+55	—
HD-7	● Laurie C. Campbell● Suzanne MilesINC	1%99% 1%99%	R+18.2R+24.3	Solid RSolid R	R+31	—
HD-8	● No Democrat● Walker Wood ThomasINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+41	—
HD-9	● No Democrat● Myron B. DossettINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+33	—
HD-10	● John B. Whipple● Josh CallowayINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+28.3R+38.6	Solid RSolid R	R+44	—
HD-11	● Janelle Rowena Glass● J. T. PayneINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+19.9R+22.4	Solid RSolid R	R+29	—
HD-12	● No Democrat● Jim Gooch Jr.INC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+59	—
HD-13	● Rhondalyn Randolph● DJ JohnsonINC	2%98% 3%97%	R+17.4R+19.6	Solid RSolid R	R+26	—
HD-14	● Donna Haynes● Wes Pate	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+36.6R+46.8	Solid RSolid R	R+52	—
HD-15	● Chris Waddell● Rebecca RaymerINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+40.8R+51.9	Solid RSolid R	R+58	—
HD-16	● No Democrat● Jason PetrieINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+55	—
HD-17	● No Democrat● Robert B. DuvallINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+23	—
HD-18	● No Democrat● Samara HeavrinINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+53	—
HD-19	● No Democrat● Michael Lee MeredithINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+39	—
HD-20	● No Democrat● Kevin JacksonINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+9	—
HD-21	● No Democrat● Amy NeighborsINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+71	—
HD-22	● No Democrat● Shawn McPhersonINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+52	—
HD-23	● No Democrat● Steve RileyINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+52	—
HD-24	● Johnny Pennington● Ryan Dale BivensINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+47.0R+58.3	Solid RSolid R	R+63	—
HD-25	● Cherlyn Evette Smith● Steve BratcherINC	5%95% 5%95%	R+12.5R+16.5	Likely RSolid R	R+22	—
HD-26	● No Democrat● Peyton GriffeeINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+46	—
HD-27	● Susan C. Doman● Joseph Redmon	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+24.9R+37.9	Solid RSolid R	R+43	—
HD-28Flip risk	● Almaria Baker● Jared A. BaumanINC	42%58% 26%74%	R+1.5R+6.1	Toss-upLean R	R+13	—
HD-29Flip risk	● Cassie Blausey● Chris LewisINC	48%52% 34%66%	R+0.4R+3.8	Toss-upLean R	R+11	—
HD-30	● Mitra Subedi● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+44	—
HD-31D flipD flip	● Tim Hall● Susan Tyler WittenINC	92%8% 85%15%	D+11.0D+10.1	Likely DLikely D	D+3	—
HD-32	● Tina BojanowskiINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+21	—
HD-33Flip riskFlip risk	● Jennifer Hardin● Jason Michael NemesINC	58%42% 50%50%	D+1.5R+0.2	Toss-upToss-up	R+6	—
HD-34	● Sarah StalkerINC● Victoria Ligon	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+49.6D+41.3	Solid DSolid D	D+35	—
HD-35	● Lisa WillnerINC● Bret Shultz	>99%<1% 90%10%	D+27.9D+12.4	Solid DLikely D	D+6	—
HD-36	● William "Woody" Zorn● John F. HodgsonINC	39%61% 31%69%	R+2.1R+4.6	Lean RLean R	R+11	—
HD-37	● No Democrat● Emily Myers CallawayINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+17	—
HD-38	● Rachel RoarxINC● Carrie Sanders McKeehan	98%2% 75%25%	D+15.3D+6.3	Solid DLean D	Even	—
HD-39	● Ryan Stanford● Matt LockettINC	24%76% 17%83%	R+5.2R+9.2	Lean RLikely R	R+16	—
HD-40	● Nima KulkarniINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+53	—
HD-41	● Mary Lou MarzianINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+49	—
HD-42	● Joshua WatkinsINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+74	—
HD-43	● Robert LeVertis Bell● No RepublicanAlso: Lisa Harris (I)	No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot	—	Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)	D+67	—
HD-44	● Kenya Wade● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+41	—
HD-45	● Adam MooreINC● Killian Timoney	96%4% 64%36%	D+14.3D+3.4	Solid DLean D	R+3	—
HD-46	● Al GentryINC● Brad Woolridge	>99%<1% 96%4%	D+25.5D+17.7	Solid DSolid D	D+11	—
HD-47	● No Democrat● Felicia RabournINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+55	—
HD-48D flipD flip	● Suhas Kulkarni● Ken FlemingINC	88%12% 82%18%	D+9.9D+9.3	Likely DLikely D	D+3	—
HD-49	● No Democrat● Thomas HuffINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+51	—
HD-50	● J. D. Netherton● Candy MassaroniINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+29.7R+35.5	Solid RSolid R	R+41	—
HD-51	● No Democrat● Michael "Sarge" PollockINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+50	—
HD-52	● No Democrat● Kevin G. Jones	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+69	—
HD-53	● No Democrat● James Allen TiptonINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+53	—
HD-54	● No Democrat● Daniel B. ElliottINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+44	—
HD-55	● Katrina A. Sexton● Kim KingINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+30.8R+42.8	Solid RSolid R	R+48	—
HD-56	● David Graves● Daniel A. FisterINC	24%76% 14%86%	R+5.1R+10.6	Lean RLikely R	R+17	—
HD-57	● Erika HancockINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	R+2	—
HD-58	● Andrew Thomas Monarch● Jennifer Henson DeckerINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+22.9R+28.3	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
HD-59	● Stephanie White● David W. OsborneINC	3%97% 4%96%	R+17.1R+17.8	Solid RSolid R	R+23	—
HD-60	● Tracey Reid● Marianne ProctorINC	1%99% 1%99%	R+21.2R+27.9	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
HD-61	● No Democrat● Savannah MaddoxINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+55	—
HD-62	● Randy Jackson Simpkins● Tony HamptonINC	2%98% 1%99%	R+16.0R+23.0	Solid RSolid R	R+29	—
HD-63	● No Democrat● Cole Cuzick	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+19	—
HD-64	● William Nick Whalen● Kimberly Poore MoserINC	2%98% 2%98%	R+16.6R+20.7	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
HD-65Flip risk	● Aaron John Currin● Stephanie A. DietzINC	44%56% 35%65%	R+1.0R+3.6	Toss-upLean R	R+10	—
HD-66	● Jason Ellis● T. J. RobertsINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+26.4R+33.9	Solid RSolid R	R+40	—
HD-67	● Matthew LehmanINC● Terry Hatton	97%3% 67%33%	D+15.3D+4.1	Solid DLean D	R+3	—
HD-68	● Amy Amin● Mike ClinesINC	3%97% 3%97%	R+14.3R+19.4	Solid RSolid R	R+26	—
HD-69	● Wilanne Stangel● Steven DoanINC	7%93% 5%95%	R+11.3R+17.2	Likely RSolid R	R+23	—
HD-70	● Charlotte Harris● Mike Fisher	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+31.6R+44.6	Solid RSolid R	R+50	—
HD-71	● No Democrat● Josh BrayINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+57	—
HD-72	● No Democrat● Matthew R. KochINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+45	—
HD-73	● Chelsea Kirk● Daniel Konstantopoulos	5%95% 2%98%	R+11.8R+21.4	Likely RSolid R	R+28	—
HD-74	● No Democrat● David F. Charles	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+49	—
HD-75	● Lindsey BurkeINC● Jeff ForsythAlso: Geoffrey M. "Geoff" Young (OTH)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+45.0D+35.2	Solid DSolid D	D+28	—
HD-76	● Anne Gay DonworthINC● Avram Phoenix Hicks	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+45.3D+33.2	Solid DSolid D	D+26	—
HD-77	● George A. Brown Jr.INC● Jason Griffith	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+53.7D+52.4	Solid DSolid D	D+46	—
HD-78	● No Democrat● Mark HartINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+27	—
HD-79	● Chad R. AullINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+29	—
HD-80	● Mary Russell● David MeadeINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+45.0R+56.5	Solid RSolid R	R+61	—
HD-81	● Anthony Looney● Deanna Frazier GordonINC	1%99% 1%99%	R+21.8R+26.4	Solid RSolid R	R+32	—
HD-82	● No Democrat● Nick WilsonINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+69	—
HD-83	● No Democrat● Joshua BranscumINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+71	—
HD-84	● No Democrat● Chris FugateINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+61	—
HD-85	● No Democrat● R. Shane BakerINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+64	—
HD-86	● No Democrat● Tom O'Dell SmithINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+71	—
HD-87	● No Democrat● Adam BowlingINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+71	—
HD-88	● No Democrat● Vanessa GrosslINCAlso: L. Scott Miller (I)	No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot	—	Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)	R+5	—
HD-89	● No Democrat● Timmy TruettINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+63	—
HD-90	● No Democrat● Derek LewisINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+76	—
HD-91	● David Johnson● Darrell Billings	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+29.5R+37.6	Solid RSolid R	R+43	—
HD-92	● No Democrat● John BlantonINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+63	—
HD-93	● Adrielle CamuelINC● Hannah Beth Rivera	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+33.2D+20.7	Solid DSolid D	D+14	—
HD-94	● No Democrat● Mitchum Addison WhitakerINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+67	—
HD-95R flipR flip	● Johnny Ray Turner● Tanner Hesterberg	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+34.3R+52.6	Solid RSolid R	R+58	—
HD-96	● Pamela Lewis● Patrick FlanneryINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+42.8R+56.5	Solid RSolid R	R+61	—
HD-97	● Rebekah D. Skaggs● Bobby W. McCoolINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+53.0R+68.5	Solid RSolid R	R+73	—
HD-98	● No Democrat● Aaron ThompsonINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+47	—
HD-99	● Iva Markicevic Daley● Richard Lee WhiteINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+30.0R+38.2	Solid RSolid R	R+43	—
HD-100	● No Democrat● Scott SharpINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+45	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).