Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats (the even-numbered districts in 2026) are on the ballot each election.
20 of 40 seats on the ballot; 20 holdovers (5 D, 15 R) serve until a later election.
Florida · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Who will control the Florida State Senate?
20 of 40 seats are on the ballot; the others are elected in alternate years. 21 seats make a majority. 27 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.
Republicans are very likely to control the Florida State Senate (>99%).
Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
- Avg. D seats
- 13.380% range 11–15
- Avg. R seats
- 26.780% range 25–29
- Now
- 12 D · 26 R · 1 other · 1 vacant20 up this year
Chance Republicans win a two-thirds supermajority (27+ seats): 58%
12 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party26 R now
Republicans are very likely to control the Florida State Senate (>99%).
Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
- Avg. D seats
- 13.480% range 11–16
- Avg. R seats
- 26.680% range 24–29
- Now
- 12 D · 26 R · 1 other · 1 vacant20 up this year
Chance Republicans win a two-thirds supermajority (27+ seats): 54%
12 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party26 R now
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Holdover, not up this year
Race ratings
All 20 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.
The map
Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.
Florida
Miami
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Seats to watch
The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.
Closest races
Most likely to flip
SD-10John LowndesJason BrodeurD flipD flip67%to flip70%to flip SD-38Richard LamondinAlexis CalatayudFlip riskFlip risk40%to flip41%to flip SD-14Brian NathanJosie TomkowFlip risk26%to flip47%to flip SD-18Karla KempNick DiCeglie21%to flip36%to flip SD-36George LavinIleana Garcia16%to flip19%to flip SD-12Alfred ReynoldsColleen Burton5%to flip13%to flip SD-26David SilversRick Roth5%to flip9%to flip SD-22Lew WassermanJames Buchanan4%to flip11%to flip SD-20Gerald BaldiJim Boyd4%to flip9%to flip SD-8Judy NgyingJake Johansson2%to flip5%to flip
How this chamber is elected
Rules that shape these races and the forecast.
Unopposed races skip the ballot
A candidate with no opponent is declared elected and the race does not appear on the ballot, so some seats have no vote totals.
How the odds have moved
Chance of winning control, by forecast date.
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Every outcome we simulated
Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.
Every race
20 races, 3 without a contest between the major parties.
20 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD-2 | ● Lauren Donahoo● Jay TrumbullINC | R+39.8R+43.9 | R+48 | — | ||
| SD-4 | ● No Democrat● Clay YarboroughINC | Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed | — | R+23 | — | |
| SD-6 | ● Jason Bellamy-Fults● Jennifer BradleyINCAlso: Joseph Thornton (OTH) | R+18.5R+21.9 | R+26 | — | ||
| SD-8 | ● Judy Ngying● Jake JohanssonAlso: Gabe Wozniak (L) | R+15.4R+16.4 | R+21 | — | ||
| SD-10D flipD flip | ● John Lowndes● Jason BrodeurINC | D+3.1D+5.0 | Even | — | ||
| SD-12 | ● Alfred Reynolds● Colleen BurtonINC | R+12.6R+10.6 | R+14 | — | ||
| SD-14Flip risk | ● Brian NathanINC● Josie Tomkow | D+4.7D+0.7 | R+5 | — | ||
| SD-16 | ● Fentrice Driskell● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+28 | — | |
| SD-18 | ● Karla Kemp● Nick DiCeglieINC | R+5.9R+3.4 | R+9 | — | ||
| SD-20 | ● Gerald Baldi● Jim BoydINC | R+13.5R+13.4 | R+17 | — | ||
| SD-22 | ● Lew Wasserman● James BuchananAlso: Martin Hyde (NPA) | R+13.7R+11.6 | R+17 | — | ||
| SD-24 | ● Mack BernardINC● Jackie Green | D+19.5D+16.9 | D+14 | — | ||
| SD-26 | ● David Silvers● Rick Roth | D+12.4D+12.8 | D+9 | — | ||
| SD-28 | ● David Silverberg● Lauren Melo | R+24.9R+25.5 | R+29 | — | ||
| SD-30 | ● Lauren Book● Hector Rivera | D+18.9D+15.5 | D+12 | — | ||
| SD-32 | ● Rosalind OsgoodINC● No RepublicanAlso: Crescente Furnaguera (NPA) | No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot | — | D+43 | — | |
| SD-34 | ● Ashley Gantt● Elizabeth Jeanty | D+45.3D+48.9 | D+43 | — | ||
| SD-36 | ● George Lavin● Ileana GarciaINC | R+8.4R+9.4 | R+13 | — | ||
| SD-38Flip riskFlip risk | ● Richard Lamondin● Alexis CalatayudINCAlso: Jeffrey Solomon (I) | R+1.8R+1.8 | R+6 | 2 | ||
| SD-40 | ● Jose Antonion Stoute● Ana Maria RodriguezINCAlso: Ramiro Orta (NPA) | R+17.6R+19.3 | R+23 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).