Iowa · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Iowa House of Representatives?

All 100 seats are on the ballot. 51 seats make a majority. 67 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are clearly favored to control the Iowa House of Representatives (93%).

Democrats

chance of control

Republicans

93%

Avg. D seats: 42.280% range 36–49
Avg. R seats: 57.880% range 51–64
Now: 33 D · 67 R100 up this year

Republican supermajority now (67 of 100 seats; 67 needed for two-thirds): 3% chance it holds · 97% chance it's broken.

33 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party67 R now

Republicans are clearly favored to control the Iowa House of Representatives (94%).

Democrats

chance of control

Republicans

94%

Avg. D seats: 41.980% range 35–49
Avg. R seats: 58.180% range 51–65
Now: 33 D · 67 R100 up this year

Republican supermajority now (67 of 100 seats; 67 needed for two-thirds): 5% chance it holds · 95% chance it's broken.

33 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party67 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 100 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

6 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D. 3 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

5 seats projected to flip: 5 R→D. 8 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D30

Show 24 more

Likely D3

Lean D6

Toss-up3

Lean R7

Likely R10

Solid R41

Show 35 more

HD-3
HD-4
HD-5
HD-6
HD-7
HD-8
HD-9
HD-10
HD-11
HD-12
HD-13
HD-14
HD-15
HD-16
HD-17
HD-18
HD-23
HD-24
HD-25
HD-26
HD-37
HD-47
HD-54
HD-55
HD-56
HD-57
HD-58
HD-60
HD-64
HD-66
HD-67
HD-68
HD-84
HD-88
HD-95

Solid D27

Show 21 more

Likely D3

Lean D7

Toss-up8

Lean R4

Likely R12

Solid R39

Show 33 more

HD-3
HD-4
HD-5
HD-6
HD-7
HD-9
HD-10
HD-11
HD-12
HD-13
HD-14
HD-15
HD-16
HD-17
HD-18
HD-23
HD-24
HD-25
HD-26
HD-37
HD-47
HD-54
HD-55
HD-56
HD-58
HD-60
HD-64
HD-66
HD-67
HD-68
HD-70
HD-88
HD-95

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Iowa

Des Moines

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

HD-46Mandy Newton RosenowDan GehlbachFlip riskFlip risk51%Rep.52%Rep. HD-99Jennifer KirkmanMatthew RinkerFlip riskFlip risk53%Rep.50%Dem. HD-40Heather SieversBill GustoffFlip riskFlip risk57%Dem.51%Dem. HD-94Karen RoebuckMike VondranFlip risk64%Rep.51%Rep. HD-69Randy MeierTom Determann64%Rep.63%Rep. HD-52Mike TupperDavid BlomD flipFlip risk65%Dem.60%Dem. HD-19Benjamin Thomas LarsonBrent SiegristFlip risk66%Rep.54%Rep. HD-59Jacob WelperChristian HermansonD flipD flip68%Dem.69%Dem. HD-83Mike BergmanCindy Golding69%Rep.62%Rep. HD-28Tom WaltonDavid YoungD flipD flip69%Dem.75%Dem.

Most likely to flip

HD-43Jill AleschNicole HassoD flipD flip96%to flip87%to flip HD-41Molly BuckRyan WeldonD flipD flip78%to flip67%to flip HD-72Matt RobinsonJennifer SmithD flipD flip75%to flip76%to flip HD-28Tom WaltonDavid YoungD flipD flip69%to flip75%to flip HD-59Jacob WelperChristian HermansonD flipD flip68%to flip69%to flip HD-52Mike TupperDavid BlomD flipFlip risk65%to flip60%to flip HD-40Heather SieversBill GustoffFlip riskFlip risk57%to flip51%to flip HD-46Mandy Newton RosenowDan GehlbachFlip riskFlip risk49%to flip48%to flip HD-99Jennifer KirkmanMatthew RinkerFlip riskFlip risk47%to flip50%to flip HD-94Karen RoebuckMike VondranFlip risk36%to flip49%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

100 races, 32 without a contest between the major parties.

100 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
HD-1	● Shawn Olorundami● Josh Steinhoff	95%5% 81%19%	D+12.0D+8.2	Likely DLikely D	D+1	—
HD-2	● Jessica Lopez-Walker● Robert Henderson	10%90% 16%84%	R+9.6R+9.4	Likely RLikely R	R+17	—
HD-3	● No Democrat● Robert Driesen	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+57	—
HD-4	● No Democrat● Skyler WheelerINCAlso: Garth Van Donselaar (I)	No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot	—	Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)	R+74	—
HD-5	● Stephanie Steiner● Keith Glienke	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+40.0R+48.9	Solid RSolid R	R+56	—
HD-6	● No Democrat● Megan JonesINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+35	—
HD-7	● Rachel Burns● Wendy LarsonINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+36.7R+43.8	Solid RSolid R	R+50	—
HD-8	● Kristofer Williams● Ann MeyerINC	1%99% 4%96%	R+19.6R+17.3	Solid RSolid R	R+25	—
HD-9	● No Democrat● Henry StoneINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+38	—
HD-10	● No Democrat● John H WillsINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+42	—
HD-11	● Bill Owen● Craig WilliamsINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+28.2R+33.3	Solid RSolid R	R+41	—
HD-12	● Dustin Durbin● Steven HoltINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+33.8R+38.4	Solid RSolid R	R+46	—
HD-13	● No Democrat● Travis M. SitzmannINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+53	—
HD-14	● No Democrat● Jacob BossmanINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+26	—
HD-15	● Benjamin Schauer● Jason ShererAlso: Blake Johnson (I), Marilyn J Mentzer (I)	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+22.6R+28.4	Solid RSolid R	R+35	—
HD-16	● Jack Goodman● David A. SieckINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+31.5R+36.0	Solid RSolid R	R+43	—
HD-17	● No Democrat● Devon WoodINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+44	—
HD-18	● Tripp Narup● Thomas Jay MooreINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+28.7R+33.3	Solid RSolid R	R+41	—
HD-19Flip risk	● Benjamin Thomas Larson● Brent SiegristINC	34%66% 46%54%	R+3.0R+1.1	Lean RToss-up	R+8	—
HD-20Flip risk	● Eric Armstrong● Keith Jones	78%22% 49%51%	D+5.8R+0.1	Lean DToss-up	R+7	—
HD-21	● Spencer A Waugh● Brooke BodenINC	8%92% 6%94%	R+10.5R+15.0	Likely RLikely R	R+23	—
HD-22	● Rory Taylor● Samantha FettINC	12%88% 9%91%	R+8.6R+13.3	Likely RLikely R	R+20	—
HD-23	● Karen Varley● Ray Bubba SorensenINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+29.4R+33.4	Solid RSolid R	R+40	—
HD-24	● Sonya Hicks● Sam WengrynINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+33.0R+40.9	Solid RSolid R	R+47	—
HD-25	● Kolton Jones● Hans C. WilzINC	1%99% 3%97%	R+19.1R+20.2	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
HD-26	● Brett Mohler● Austin HarrisINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+38.2R+43.7	Solid RSolid R	R+50	—
HD-27	● Kenan JudgeINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+2	—
HD-28D flipD flip	● Tom Walton● David YoungINC	69%31% 75%25%	D+3.8D+6.4	Lean DLean D	R+1	—
HD-29	● Brian MeyerINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+18	—
HD-30	● Megan L. SrinivasINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+19	—
HD-31	● Mary MadisonINC● Kevin W. DuBay	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+31.3D+22.3	Solid DSolid D	D+16	—
HD-32	● Mike Jones● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+20	—
HD-33	● Ivette Muhammad● Lynn Hammel	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+39.9D+33.8	Solid DSolid D	D+27	—
HD-34	● Rob JohnsonINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+50	—
HD-35	● Sean BagniewskiINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+39	—
HD-36	● Austin BaethINC● Bruce A Michalowski	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+58.3D+58.6	Solid DSolid D	D+53	—
HD-37	● No Democrat● Jason Sandholdt	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+45	—
HD-38	● Brad Magg● Matthew Oleson	17%83% 6%94%	R+7.4R+15.9	Likely RLikely R	R+23	—
HD-39	● Nate Boulton● Troy Clark	97%3% 80%20%	D+15.7D+7.8	Solid DLean D	D+1	—
HD-40Flip riskFlip risk	● Heather Sievers● Bill GustoffINC	57%43% 51%49%	D+1.2D+0.3	Toss-upToss-up	R+7	—
HD-41D flipD flip	● Molly Buck● Ryan WeldonINC	78%22% 67%33%	D+5.8D+4.2	Lean DLean D	R+3	—
HD-42	● Amy Tagliareni● Heather Stephenson	89%11% 75%25%	D+9.0D+6.4	Likely DLean D	Even	—
HD-43D flipD flip	● Jill Alesch● Nicole Hasso	96%4% 87%13%	D+13.2D+10.6	Solid DLikely D	D+4	—
HD-44	● Larry McBurneyINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+11	—
HD-45	● Kendra Haug● Austin Stubbs	4%96% 5%95%	R+13.7R+17.0	Solid RSolid R	R+24	—
HD-46Flip riskFlip risk	● Mandy Newton Rosenow● Dan GehlbachINC	49%51% 48%52%	R+0.2R+0.5	Toss-upToss-up	R+8	—
HD-47	● Chris New● Carter F. NordmanINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+19.2R+20.5	Solid RSolid R	R+28	—
HD-48	● Benjamin Olsen● Chad BehnINC	12%88% 17%83%	R+8.6R+8.9	Likely RLikely R	R+17	—
HD-49	● Beth Wessel-KroeschellINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+28	—
HD-50	● Ross WilburnINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+32	—
HD-51	● Teresa Perin● Brett BarkerINC	5%95% 9%91%	R+12.9R+13.3	Solid RLikely R	R+21	—
HD-52D flipFlip risk	● Mike Tupper● David BlomINC	65%35% 60%40%	D+2.7D+2.3	Lean DToss-up	R+5	—
HD-53	● Berleen Wobeter● Dean FisherINC	10%90% 13%87%	R+9.3R+11.0	Likely RLikely R	R+18	—
HD-54	● Leila Ann Staton● Joshua MeggersINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+27.2R+29.4	Solid RSolid R	R+37	—
HD-55	● Cynthia Oppedal Paschen● Beau Klaver	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+22.4R+23.8	Solid RSolid R	R+32	—
HD-56	● Kyle Kruse● Mark I. ThompsonINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+32.0R+36.9	Solid RSolid R	R+44	—
HD-57	● Shawn Ellerbroek● Pat GrassleyINC	2%98% 4%96%	R+17.3R+19.0	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
HD-58	● India May● Charley ThomsonINC	1%99% 1%99%	R+19.6R+24.3	Solid RSolid R	R+32	—
HD-59D flipD flip	● Jacob Welper● Christian HermansonINC	68%32% 69%31%	D+3.5D+4.7	Lean DLean D	R+4	—
HD-60	● Alexander Schmidt● Dani Ollenburg	1%99% 3%97%	R+20.1R+20.9	Solid RSolid R	R+29	—
HD-61	● Vincent Collis● No RepublicanAlso: Lucas Hewitt (I)	No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot	—	Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)	D+7	—
HD-62	● Jerome Amos JrINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+25	—
HD-63	● Jeff Thurlow● Michael R. BerganINC	6%94% 16%84%	R+13.2R+10.1	Likely RLikely R	R+17	—
HD-64	● Brian Bruening● Jason GearhartINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+26.6R+27.4	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
HD-65	● Carolyn Wiezorek● Shannon LundgrenINC	2%98% 4%96%	R+15.9R+18.0	Solid RSolid R	R+25	—
HD-66	● Matt English● Steven BradleyINC	2%99% 2%98%	R+17.3R+23.0	Solid RSolid R	R+30	—
HD-67	● Michael Coonrad● Craig JohnsonINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+26.1R+25.6	Solid RSolid R	R+32	—
HD-68	● Scott Bodley● Chad IngelsINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+19.4R+21.3	Solid RSolid R	R+29	—
HD-69	● Randy Meier● Tom DetermannINC	36%64% 37%63%	R+2.5R+3.0	Lean RLean R	R+10	—
HD-70	● George Pickup● Norlin MommsenINC	2%98% 3%97%	R+16.0R+20.3	Solid RSolid R	R+28	—
HD-71	● Sam Wooden● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+10	—
HD-72D flipD flip	● Matt Robinson● Jennifer SmithINC	75%25% 76%24%	D+4.9D+6.5	Lean DLean D	Even	—
HD-73	● Elizabeth WilsonINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+7	—
HD-74	● Eric GjerdeINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+18	—
HD-75	● Drew Stensland● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+11	—
HD-76	● Calvin Horn● Matt Reisetter	20%80% 15%85%	R+6.1R+9.9	Likely RLikely R	R+18	—
HD-77	● Jeff CoolingINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+14	—
HD-78	● Angel RamirezINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+35	—
HD-79	● Tracy EhlertINC● Barclay Woerner	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+28.2D+25.2	Solid DSolid D	D+18	—
HD-80	● Aime J WichtendahlINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+10	—
HD-81	● Daniel GosaINC● Dillon Fillion	99%1% 85%15%	D+19.8D+9.9	Solid DLikely D	D+3	—
HD-82	● James Behrmann● Bobby KaufmannINC	4%96% 8%92%	R+14.0R+13.9	Solid RLikely R	R+21	—
HD-83	● Mike Bergman● Cindy GoldingINC	31%69% 38%62%	R+3.6R+2.9	Lean RLean R	R+10	—
HD-84	● Polly Denison● Thomas GerholdINC	1%99% 3%97%	R+21.0R+19.6	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
HD-85	● Amy NielsenINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+30	—
HD-86	● Dave JacobyINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+52	—
HD-87	● Thomas R. O'Donnell● Jeff ShipleyINC	7%93% 8%92%	R+10.8R+13.7	Likely RLikely R	R+21	—
HD-88	● No Democrat● Helena HayesINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+49	—
HD-89	● Elinor A. LevinINC● No RepublicanAlso: Daniel Arch (I)	No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot	—	Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)	D+55	—
HD-90	● Adam ZabnerINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+56	—
HD-91	● Mark Divitt● Judd LawlerINC	27%73% 29%71%	R+4.4R+5.2	Lean RLean R	R+12	—
HD-92	● Brittany Erickson● Heather HoraINC	13%87% 20%80%	R+8.2R+7.8	Likely RLikely R	R+14	—
HD-93Flip risk	● Keith Soko● Gary M. MohrINC	28%72% 46%54%	R+4.5R+0.9	Lean RToss-up	R+7	—
HD-94Flip risk	● Karen Roebuck● Mike VondranINC	36%64% 49%51%	R+2.6R+0.3	Lean RToss-up	R+7	—
HD-95	● Carrie Trevino● Taylor CollinsINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+30.5R+32.9	Solid RSolid R	R+40	—
HD-96	● Nick Salazar● Mark CisnerosINC	25%75% 33%67%	R+4.9R+4.1	Lean RLean R	R+11	—
HD-97	● Adam Peters● Charlie Helmick	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+28.3D+28.4	Solid DSolid D	D+22	—
HD-98	● Andrew Fitzgerald● Nathan Ramker	92%8% 79%21%	D+10.4D+7.7	Likely DLean D	D+1	—
HD-99Flip riskFlip risk	● Jennifer Kirkman● Matthew RinkerINC	47%53% 50%50%	R+0.6Even	Toss-upToss-up	R+7	—
HD-100	● Matthew Mohrfeld● Blaine WatkinsINC	2%98% 4%96%	R+15.9R+18.0	Solid RSolid R	R+25	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).