North Carolina · 2026 forecast · Southeast region · Updated Oct 16, 2026
North Carolina in 2026
North Carolina elects a U.S. senator, all 14 members of the U.S. House, all 50 members of the State Senate and all 120 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.
On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · 14 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.
U.S. House districts · North Carolina
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Trifecta
Divided government now
No party holds the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- 8%
- Divided
- 92%
- Rep. trifecta
- <1%
Divided government most likely continues (92%); 8% chance one party wins a trifecta.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- 14%
- Divided
- 86%
- Rep. trifecta
- <1%
Divided government most likely continues (86%); 14% chance one party wins a trifecta.
Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.
Statewide races
Every race decided by the whole state.
The North Carolina environment
The environment North Carolina's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
- North Carolina state offices vs. the nation
- +0.0± 4.5 (80% range) · 0 polled state races
- North Carolina state-office environment
- D+9.5In line with the nation
The polled state races behind it
No governor, statewide or legislative race in North Carolina is polled yet, so its state races run at the national environment.
Over time
Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the North Carolina environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.
U.S. House
14 districts. The national House forecast.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties.
Charlotte
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC-1 | ● Don DavisINC● Laurie BuckhoutAlso: Tom Bailey (L) | D+3.5D+2.9 | R+10 | 7 | ||
| NC-2 | ● Deborah RossINC● Eugene Douglass | D+42.7D+44.1 | D+35 | — | ||
| NC-3 | ● Raymond Smith Jr.● Greg MurphyINC | R+6.2R+4.8 | R+13 | 1 | ||
| NC-4 | ● Valerie FousheeINC● Max Ganorkar | D+52.4D+54.5 | D+46 | — | ||
| NC-5 | ● Chuck Hubbard● Virginia FoxxINC | R+11.3R+10.6 | R+18 | — | ||
| NC-6 | ● Cyril Jefferson● Addison McDowellINC | R+10.5R+8.8 | R+17 | — | ||
| NC-7 | ● Kimberly Hardy● David RouzerINC | R+8.1R+7.1 | R+13 | 2 | ||
| NC-8 | ● Colby Watson● Mark HarrisINC | R+13.1R+10.4 | R+19 | — | ||
| NC-9 | ● Richard Ojeda● Richard HudsonINC | R+9.6R+9.1 | R+16 | 1 | ||
| NC-10 | ● Ashley Bell● Pat HarriganINC | R+8.5R+7.6 | R+17 | 1 | ||
| NC-11Flip riskFlip risk | ● Jamie Ager● Jennifer Balkcom | R+1.2R+1.0 | R+10 | 1 | ||
| NC-12 | ● Alma AdamsINC● Jack Codiga | D+54.5D+56.4 | D+48 | — | ||
| NC-13 | ● Paul Barringer● Brad KnottINC | R+9.3R+9.1 | R+17 | — | ||
| NC-14 | ● Lakesha Womack● Tim MooreINC | R+6.7R+4.7 | R+16 | 1 |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).
North Carolina General Assembly
Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.
North Carolina State Senate
Avg. 22 D – 28 R seats · 26 for control · R supermajority now: 20% it holds
Avg. 23 D – 27 R seats · 26 for control · R supermajority now: 17% it holds
North Carolina State Senate ratings
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D.
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
North Carolina House of Representatives
Avg. 58 D – 62 R seats · 61 for control · D three-fifths supermajority 1%, R three-fifths supermajority 2%
Avg. 59 D – 61 R seats · 61 for control · D three-fifths supermajority 2%, R three-fifths supermajority 2%
North Carolina House of Representatives ratings
3 seats projected to flip: 3 R→D. 5 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
4 seats projected to flip: 4 R→D. 7 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans, ■ another party). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.