Kentucky · 2026 forecast · Upper South region · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Kentucky in 2026

Kentucky elects a U.S. senator, all 6 members of the U.S. House, 19 of 38 members of the State Senate and all 100 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.

On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · 6 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.

U.S. Senate: R 99%R 98%Charles Booker vs. Andy Barr
U.S. House: 1.5 D · 4.5 R1.5 D · 4.5 RExpected seats of 6 · 1 toss-up
Kentucky State Senate: R >99%R >99%Chance of control · 19 of 38 seats up
Kentucky House of Representatives: R >99%R >99%Chance of control · 100 of 100 seats up

Trifecta
Statewide
Environment
U.S. House
General Assembly
Election rules

U.S. House districts · Kentucky

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Trifecta

Divided government now

No party holds the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.

After the election

Dem. trifecta: <1%
Divided: >99%
Rep. trifecta: <1%

Divided government most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance one party wins a trifecta.

After the election

Dem. trifecta: <1%
Divided: >99%
Rep. trifecta: <1%

Divided government most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance one party wins a trifecta.

Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.

Statewide races

Every race decided by the whole state.

U.S. Senate

Solid RSolid R

● Charles Booker● Andy Barr

1%99%

2%98%

The Kentucky environment

The environment Kentucky's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.

National environment: D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
Kentucky state offices vs. the nation: +0.0± 4.5 (80% range) · 0 polled state races
Kentucky state-office environment: D+9.5In line with the nation

The polled state races behind it

No governor, statewide or legislative race in Kentucky is polled yet, so its state races run at the national environment.

Over time

Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Kentucky environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.

U.S. House

6 districts. The national House forecast.

Solid D1

KY-3

Toss-up1

KY-6risk

Solid R4

Solid D1

KY-3

Toss-up1

KY-6risk

Solid R4

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties.

Louisville

6 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
KY-1	● Drew Williams● James ComerINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+36.7R+39.9	Solid RSolid R	R+47	—
KY-2	● Megan Wingfield● Brett GuthrieINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+34.7R+33.7	Solid RSolid R	R+41	—
KY-3	● Morgan McGarveyINC● Maria Rodriquez	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+31.4D+29.0	Solid DSolid D	D+20	—
KY-4	● Melissa Strange● Ed Gallrein	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+27.1R+27.2	Solid RSolid R	R+35	—
KY-5	● Ned Pillersdorf● Hal RogersINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+52.8R+57.2	Solid RSolid R	R+63	—
KY-6Flip riskFlip risk	● Zach Dembo● Ralph Alvarado	49%51% 46%54%	R+0.2R+0.6	Toss-upToss-up	R+14	10

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).

Kentucky General Assembly

Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.

Kentucky State Senate

Avg. 7 D – 31 R seats · 20 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds

Avg. 7 D – 31 R seats · 20 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds

19 of 38 seats up; 19 holdovers.

Full forecast

Kentucky State Senate ratings

No seat is projected to change parties. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D.

Solid D1

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up1

SD-36risk

Lean R1

SD-6

Likely R1

SD-34

Solid R15

Solid D1

Likely D0

Lean D1

SD-36flip

Toss-up0

Lean R1

SD-6

Likely R1

SD-34

Solid R15

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.

Kentucky House of Representatives

Avg. 24 D – 76 R seats · 51 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds

Avg. 22 D – 78 R seats · 51 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds

Full forecast

Kentucky House of Representatives ratings

3 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D, 1 D→R. 4 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

3 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D, 1 D→R. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D19

Likely D2

Lean D0

Toss-up4

Lean R3

Likely R3

Solid R69

Solid D15

Likely D3

Lean D3

Toss-up1

HD-33risk

Lean R4

Likely R2

Solid R72

Closest legislative races

SD-36Sarah Cole McIntoshJulie Raque AdamsFlip riskD flip51%Dem.70%Dem. HD-29Cassie BlauseyChris LewisFlip risk52%Rep.66%Rep. HD-65Aaron John CurrinStephanie A. DietzFlip risk56%Rep.65%Rep. HD-33Jennifer HardinJason Michael NemesFlip riskFlip risk58%Dem.50%Rep. HD-28Almaria BakerJared A. BaumanFlip risk58%Rep.74%Rep. HD-36William "Woody" ZornJohn F. Hodgson61%Rep.69%Rep.

HD-56David GravesDaniel A. Fister76%Rep.86%Rep. HD-39Ryan StanfordMatt Lockett76%Rep.83%Rep. SD-6Christian FurmanLindsey Tichenor78%Rep.75%Rep. SD-34Jessica D. McIntoshJared K. Carpenter87%Rep.92%Rep. HD-48Suhas KulkarniKen FlemingD flipD flip88%Dem.82%Dem. HD-31Tim HallSusan Tyler WittenD flipD flip92%Dem.85%Dem.

How Kentucky votes

Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.

Staggered Senate

Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.

19 of 38 seats on the ballot; 19 holdovers (5 D, 14 R) serve until a later election.

Simple-majority veto override

A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto.