Texas · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Texas State Senate?

16 of 31 seats are on the ballot; the others are elected in alternate years. 16 seats make a majority. 21 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are very likely to control the Texas State Senate (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 11.480% range 11–12
Avg. R seats: 19.680% range 19–20
Now: 12 D · 18 R · 1 vacant16 up this year

Chance Republicans win a two-thirds supermajority (21+ seats): 3%

12 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party18 R now

Republicans are very likely to control the Texas State Senate (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 11.280% range 10–12
Avg. R seats: 19.880% range 19–21
Now: 12 D · 18 R · 1 vacant16 up this year

Chance Republicans win a two-thirds supermajority (21+ seats): 15%

12 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party18 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Holdover, not up this year

Race ratings

All 16 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

1 seat projected to flip: 1 D→R.

Solid D4

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R1

SD-9flip

Likely R1

SD-11

Solid R10

Solid D2

Likely D2

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R3

Solid R9

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Texas

Houston

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

SD-9Taylor RehmetLeigh WambsganssR flipR flip68%Rep.85%Rep.

Most likely to flip

SD-9Taylor RehmetLeigh WambsganssR flipR flip68%to flip85%to flip SD-11Shannon DicelyDennis Paul6%to flip7%to flip SD-2Keenen ColbertBob Hall3%to flip9%to flip SD-19Roland GutierrezMarcus Cardenas3%to flip13%to flip SD-5Paul ThomassonCharles Schwertner1%to flip5%to flip SD-24Joe HerreraPete Flores1%to flip4%to flip SD-21Judith ZaffiriniJulie Dahlberg1%to flip7%to flip SD-18Erica GillumLois Kolkhorst1%to flip3%to flip SD-1Laticia AmbrozBryan Hughes<1%to flip<1%to flip SD-3Bobby TillmanTrent Ashby<1%to flip<1%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Staggered Senate

Senators serve four-year terms, with one two-year term after each redistricting, so about half the seats are on the ballot each election.

16 of 31 seats on the ballot; 15 holdovers (7 D, 8 R) serve until a later election.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

16 races, 3 without a contest between the major parties.

16 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
SD-1	● Laticia Ambroz● Bryan HughesINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+45.3R+48.5	Solid RSolid R	R+53	—
SD-2	● Keenen Colbert● Bob HallINC	3%97% 9%91%	R+14.7R+13.2	Solid RLikely R	R+19	—
SD-3	● Bobby Tillman● Trent Ashby	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+46.8R+46.8	Solid RSolid R	R+52	—
SD-4	● No Democrat● Brett LigonINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+34	—
SD-5	● Paul Thomasson● Charles SchwertnerINC	1%99% 5%95%	R+18.7R+16.6	Solid RSolid R	R+22	—
SD-9R flipR flip	● Taylor RehmetINC● Leigh Wambsganss	32%68% 15%85%	R+3.4R+10.0	Lean RLikely R	R+17	—
SD-11	● Shannon Dicely● Dennis Paul	6%94% 7%93%	R+11.8R+14.3	Likely RLikely R	R+20	—
SD-13	● Borris MilesINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+51	—
SD-18	● Erica Gillum● Lois KolkhorstINC	1%99% 3%97%	R+21.9R+20.5	Solid RSolid R	R+26	—
SD-19	● Roland GutierrezINC● Marcus Cardenas	98%3% 87%13%	D+17.7D+11.5	Solid DLikely D	D+5	—
SD-21	● Judith ZaffiriniINC● Julie Dahlberg	99%1% 93%7%	D+24.3D+15.2	Solid DLikely D	D+7	—
SD-22	● Amy Martinez-Salas● David Cook	<1%>99% 2%98%	R+27.3R+21.5	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
SD-24	● Joe Herrera● Pete FloresINC	1%99% 4%96%	R+19.9R+18.0	Solid RSolid R	R+24	—
SD-26	● José MenéndezINC● No RepublicanAlso: Julián Villarreal (G)	No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot	—	Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)	D+25	—
SD-28	● Riley Rodriquez● Charles PerryINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+41.4R+45.9	Solid RSolid R	R+51	—
SD-31	● John Betancourt● Kevin SparksINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+52.2R+56.2	Solid RSolid R	R+61	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).