Washington · 2026 forecast · Pacific region · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Washington in 2026

Washington elects all 10 members of the U.S. House, 24 of 49 members of the State Senate and all 98 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.

On the November 3 ballot: 10 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.

U.S. House: 7.9 D · 2.1 R7.8 D · 2.2 RExpected seats of 10
Washington State Senate: D >99%D >99%Chance of control · 24 of 49 seats up
Washington House of Representatives: D >99%D >99%Chance of control · 98 of 98 seats up

Trifecta
Environment
U.S. House
Legislature
Election rules

U.S. House districts · Washington

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Trifecta

Democratic trifecta now

Democrats hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.

After the election

Dem. trifecta: >99%
Divided: <1%
Rep. trifecta: <1%

The Democratic trifecta most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance it is broken.

After the election

Dem. trifecta: >99%
Divided: <1%
Rep. trifecta: <1%

The Democratic trifecta most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance it is broken.

Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.

The Washington environment

The environment Washington's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.

National environment: D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
Washington state offices vs. the nation: +0.0± 4.5 (80% range) · 0 polled state races
Washington state-office environment: D+9.5In line with the nation

The polled state races behind it

No governor, statewide or legislative race in Washington is polled yet, so its state races run at the national environment.

Over time

Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Washington environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.

U.S. House

10 districts. The national House forecast.

Solid D7

Likely D0

Lean D1

WA-3

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R1

WA-5

Solid R1

WA-4

Solid D6

Likely D1

WA-8

Lean D0

Toss-up1

WA-3risk

Lean R1

WA-5

Likely R1

WA-4

Solid R0

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties.

Seattle

10 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
WA-1	● Suzan DelBeneINC● Mary Silva	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+39.5D+36.0	Solid DSolid D	D+31	—
WA-2	● Rick LarsenINC● Edwin Feller	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+32.5D+29.6	Solid DSolid D	D+25	—
WA-3Flip risk	● Marie Gluesenkamp PerezINC● John Braun	76%24% 59%41%	D+4.2D+1.5	Lean DToss-up	R+3	7
WA-4	● John Duresky● Amanda McKinney	2%98% 8%92%	R+14.7R+12.9	Solid RLikely R	R+20	—
WA-5	● Carmela Conroy● Michael BaumgartnerINC	10%90% 21%79%	R+7.6R+5.8	Likely RLean R	R+11	1
WA-6	● Emily RandallINC● Teresa Fox	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+24.9D+24.0	Solid DSolid D	D+19	—
WA-7	● Pramila JayapalINC● Nirav Sheth	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+78.6D+82.4	Solid DSolid D	D+77	—
WA-8	● Kim SchrierINC● Spencer Meline	98%2% 92%8%	D+15.9D+12.5	Solid DLikely D	D+7	—
WA-9	● Adam SmithINC● Doug Basler	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+52.7D+48.8	Solid DSolid D	D+44	—
WA-10	● Marilyn StricklandINC● Chris Chung	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+26.1D+24.2	Solid DSolid D	D+19	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.

Washington Legislature

Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.

Washington State Senate

Avg. 31 D – 18 R seats · 25 for control

Avg. 31 D – 18 R seats · 25 for control

24 of 49 seats up; 25 holdovers.

Full forecast

Washington State Senate ratings

No seat is projected to change parties. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D.

Solid D17

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up1

LD-35risk

Lean R1

LD-31

Likely R0

Solid R5

Solid D15

Likely D2

Lean D1

LD-35flip

Toss-up0

Lean R1

LD-31

Likely R0

Solid R5

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.

Washington House of Representatives

Avg. 69 D – 29 R seats · 50 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 78%

Avg. 72 D – 26 R seats · 50 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 89%

Full forecast

Washington House of Representatives ratings

4 seats projected to flip: 4 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

6 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D.

Solid D30

Likely D0

Lean D4

Toss-up1

LD-25risk

Lean R2

Likely R2

Solid R10

Solid D26

Likely D6

Lean D4

Toss-up0

Lean R3

Likely R5

Solid R5

Closest legislative races

LD-35Carolina MejiaDrew MacEwenFlip riskD flip57%Dem.65%Dem. LD-25David BergMichael KeatonFlip riskD flip2 seats58%Dem.74%Dem. LD-35Jim PiersonDan GriffeyD flip2 seats64%Rep.65%Dem. LD-18Randi KnottStephanie McClintockD flipD flip2 seats65%Dem.72%Dem. LD-31Tamara StramelPhil Fortunato71%Rep.61%Rep. LD-17Ben ChristlyKevin WatersD flipD flip2 seats73%Dem.88%Dem.

LD-12Stacy WilloughbyBrian BurnettD flipD flip2 seats74%Dem.77%Dem. LD-14Chelsea DimasGloria MendozaD flipD flip2 seats76%Dem.84%Dem. LD-39Kathryn LewandowskySam Low2 seats79%Rep.63%Rep. LD-6Michaela KelsoAlan Nolan2 seats82%Rep.76%Rep. LD-31Stephen Szczurko-WaltonDrew Stokesbary2 seats85%Rep.61%Rep. LD-19Kevin MoynihanJim Walsh2 seats95%Rep.89%Rep.

How Washington votes

Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.

Top-two primary

All candidates run in one primary regardless of party and the two with the most votes advance, so two candidates of the same party can meet in November. The forecast then marks the seat as safe for that party.

Two House positions per district

Each of the 49 districts elects one senator and two representatives, who run for separate positions (1 and 2). The forecast treats each position as its own race.

Staggered Senate

Senators serve four-year terms; about half the seats are on the ballot each election.

24 of 49 seats on the ballot; 25 holdovers (13 D, 12 R) serve until a later election.