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Texas · 2026 forecast · Southwest region · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Texas in 2026

Texas elects a U.S. senator and a governor, a lieutenant governor, an attorney general, a treasurer, all 38 members of the U.S. House, 16 of 31 members of the State Senate and all 150 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.

On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · Governor · 3 statewide offices · 38 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.

U.S. Senate
D 70%D 61%James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton
Governor
R 68%R 64%Gina Hinojosa vs. Greg Abbott
U.S. House
11.9 D · 26.1 R12.7 D · 25.3 RExpected seats of 38 · 2 toss-ups
Texas State Senate
R >99%R >99%Chance of control · 16 of 31 seats up
Texas House of Representatives
R 86%R 73%Chance of control · 150 of 150 seats up
Lieutenant Governor
R 71%R 57%Vikki Goodwin vs. Dan Patrick
Attorney General
R 60%R 59%Nathan Johnson vs. Mayes Middleton
Treasurer
R 73%R 55%Sarah Eckhardt vs. Don Huffines

U.S. House districts · Texas

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Trifecta

Republican trifecta now

Republicans hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.

After the election

Dem. trifecta
<1%
Divided
37%
Rep. trifecta
63%

The Republican trifecta most likely continues (63%); 37% chance it is broken.

After the election

Dem. trifecta
<1%
Divided
48%
Rep. trifecta
51%

The Republican trifecta most likely continues (51%); 49% chance it is broken.

Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.

Statewide races

Every race decided by the whole state. Statewide offices nationwide.

U.S. SenateD flipD flip

Lean DLean D
● James Talarico● Ken Paxton
70%30%
61%39%

Governor

Lean RLean R
● Gina Hinojosa● Greg AbbottINC
32%68%
36%64%

Statewide offices

Lieutenant GovernorFlip risk

Lean RToss-up
● Vikki Goodwin● Dan PatrickINC
29%71%
43%57%

Attorney GeneralFlip risk

Lean RToss-up
● Nathan Johnson● Mayes Middleton
40%60%
41%59%

TreasurerFlip risk

Lean RToss-up
● Sarah Eckhardt● Don HuffinesINC
27%73%
45%55%

Ratings

Lean D1

Lean R4

Lean D1

Toss-up3

Lean R1

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties.

The Texas environment

The environment Texas's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
Texas state offices vs. the nation
+0.3± 3.6 (80% range) · 3 polled state races
Texas state-office environment
D+9.80.3 pts more Democratic than the nation

The polled state races behind it

← Runs more RepublicanRuns more Democratic →Texas estimateWeighted, pulled toward the nationTexas GovernorPolls R+2.4 · 18% of the estimateTexas Lieutenant GovernorPolls R+1.5 · 8% of the estimateTexas Attorney GeneralPolls R+2.1 · 8% of the estimate

Over time

EvenD+5D+10Oct 10Oct 16Texas D+9.8Nation D+9.5

Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Texas environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.

U.S. House

38 districts. The national House forecast.

Solid D8

Likely D1

Lean D1

Toss-up2

Lean R1

Likely R4

Solid R21

Show 15 more

Solid D8

Likely D1

Lean D2

Toss-up1

Lean R2

Likely R15

Solid R9

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties.

Houston

38 races
DistrictCandidatesChance of winning (D · R)Avg. marginRatingLeanPolls
TX-1
● Yolanda Prince● Nathaniel MoranINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+41.9R+41.6Solid RSolid RR+48—
TX-2
● Shaun Finnie● Steve Toth
2%98%
3%97%
R+13.8R+15.1Solid RSolid RR+231
TX-3
● Evan Hunt● Keith SelfINC
3%97%
6%94%
R+13.7R+14.7Solid RLikely RR+22—
TX-4
● Jason Pearce● Pat FallonINC
1%99%
5%95%
R+16.5R+15.1Solid RLikely RR+23—
TX-5
● Chelsey Hockett● Lance GoodenINC
4%96%
10%90%
R+12.9R+11.7Solid RLikely RR+19—
TX-6
● Danny Minton● Jake EllzeyINC
1%99%
6%94%
R+17.0R+14.8Solid RLikely RR+23—
TX-7
● Lizzie FletcherINC● Alexander Hale
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+34.3D+34.8Solid DSolid DD+26—
TX-8
● Laura Jones● Jessica Hart Steinmann
1%99%
3%97%
R+18.5R+17.9Solid RSolid RR+25—
TX-9
● Leticia Gutierrez● Alex Mealer
9%91%
16%84%
R+9.0R+7.7Likely RLikely RR+172
TX-10
● Caitlin Rourk● Chris Gober
2%98%
4%96%
R+12.3R+13.1Solid RSolid RR+201
TX-11
● Claire Reynolds● August PflugerINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+25.4R+25.5Solid RSolid RR+33—
TX-12
● Angela Rodriguez Prilliman● Craig GoldmanINC
3%97%
6%94%
R+13.8R+14.1Solid RLikely RR+23—
TX-13
● Mark Nair● Ronny JacksonINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+37.3R+39.0Solid RSolid RR+46—
TX-14
● Thurman Bartie● Randy WeberINC
2%98%
4%96%
R+16.3R+16.3Solid RSolid RR+24—
TX-15Flip riskD flip
● Bobby Pulido● Monica De La CruzINC
54%46%
66%34%
D+0.8D+3.5Toss-upLean DR+135
TX-16
● Veronica EscobarINC● Adam Bauman
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+33.0D+34.7Solid DSolid DD+22—
TX-17
● Casey Shepard● Pete SessionsINC
3%97%
8%92%
R+13.7R+12.9Solid RLikely RR+20—
TX-18
● Christian MenefeeINC● Ronald Whitfield
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+63.3D+65.5Solid DSolid DD+58—
TX-19
● Kyle Rable● Tom Sell
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+42.6R+43.8Solid RSolid RR+51—
TX-20
● Joaquin CastroINC● Edgardo Rafael Baez
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+41.9D+41.5Solid DSolid DD+32—
TX-21
● Kristin Hook● Mark Teixeira
6%94%
9%91%
R+11.0R+12.3Likely RLikely RR+20—
TX-22
● Marquette Greene-Scott● Trever NehlsINC
3%97%
7%93%
R+13.5R+13.7Solid RLikely RR+21—
TX-23
● Katy Padilla Stout● Brandon Herrera
41%59%
31%69%
R+1.6R+4.2Toss-upLean RR+131
TX-24
● Kevin Burge● Beth Van DuyneINC
16%84%
25%75%
R+6.8R+6.0Likely RLean RR+15—
TX-25
● Dione Sims● Roger WilliamsINC
2%98%
6%94%
R+15.5R+14.6Solid RLikely RR+22—
TX-26
● Steven Shook● Brandon GillINC
1%99%
5%95%
R+17.3R+15.1Solid RLikely RR+23—
TX-27
● Tanya Lloyd● Michael CloudINC
3%97%
7%93%
R+13.5R+13.1Solid RLikely RR+21—
TX-28
● Henry CuellarINC● Tano Tijerina
90%10%
89%11%
D+10.1D+11.1Likely DLikely DR+53
TX-29
● Sylvia GarciaINC● Martha Fierro
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+42.9D+43.0Solid DSolid DD+34—
TX-30
● Frederick Haynes III● Everett Jackson
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+57.2D+59.0Solid DSolid DD+51—
TX-31
● Justin Early● John CarterINC
3%97%
8%92%
R+13.9R+12.9Solid RLikely RR+20—
TX-32
● Dan Barrios● Jace Yarbrough
16%84%
20%80%
R+7.0R+7.4Likely RLikely RR+15—
TX-33
● Colin Allred● Patrick Gillespie
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+45.4D+45.7Solid DSolid DD+37—
TX-34
● Vicente GonzalezINC● Eric Flores
75%25%
74%26%
D+4.7D+5.1Lean DLean DR+73
TX-35
● Johnny Garcia● Carlos De La Cruz
40%60%
40%60%
R+1.8R+2.0Lean RToss-upR+81
TX-36
● Rhonda Hart● Brian BabinINC
1%99%
4%96%
R+17.6R+16.6Solid RSolid RR+24—
TX-37
● Greg CasarINC● Lauren Peña
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+63.8D+66.4Solid DSolid DD+59—
TX-38
● Melissa McDonough● Jon Bonck
5%95%
10%90%
R+12.6R+11.8Solid RLikely RR+20—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).

Texas Legislature

Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.

Texas State Senate

Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%

Avg. 11 D – 20 R seats · 16 for control · R two-thirds supermajority 3%

Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%

Avg. 11 D – 20 R seats · 16 for control · R two-thirds supermajority 15%

16 of 31 seats up; 15 holdovers.

Full forecast

Texas State Senate ratings

1 seat projected to flip: 1 D→R.

1 seat projected to flip: 1 D→R.

Solid D4

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R1

Likely R1

Solid R10

Solid D2

Likely D2

Lean D0

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R3

Solid R9

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.

Texas House of Representatives

Dem.
14%
Rep.
86%

Avg. 70 D – 81 R seats · 76 for control

Dem.
27%
Rep.
73%

Avg. 72 D – 78 R seats · 76 for control

1 race without a candidate list yet.

Full forecast

Texas House of Representatives ratings

2 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D. 6 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

6 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D. 4 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D60

Likely D3

Lean D1

Toss-up6

Lean R4

Likely R18

Solid R58

Solid D55

Likely D6

Lean D6

Toss-up4

Lean R11

Likely R18

Solid R50

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Dotted: no candidate list yet; forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger. Every race.

Closest legislative races

HD-138Tyler SmithLacey HullFlip riskFlip risk52%Rep.54%Rep. HD-112Zach HerbertAngie Chen ButtonFlip riskD flip53%Dem.67%Dem. HD-94Katie O'Brien DuzanCheryl BeanFlip risk53%Dem.63%Rep. HD-121Zach DunnMarc LaHoodFlip riskD flip53%Rep.61%Dem. HD-37Oziel "Ozzie" Ochoa, Jr.Janie LopezFlip riskD flip54%Rep.61%Dem. HD-108Allison MitchellMorgan MeyerFlip riskD flip58%Rep.62%Dem.
HD-52Chris JimenezCaroline Harris DavilaFlip risk65%Rep.55%Rep. SD-9Taylor RehmetLeigh WambsganssR flipR flip68%Rep.85%Rep. HD-96Ebony M. TurnerEllen Fleischmann68%Rep.68%Rep. HD-34Stephanie Guerrero SaenzDenise VillalobosD flipD flip74%Dem.87%Dem. HD-63Denise WootenBen Bumgarner75%Rep.64%Rep. HD-133Josh WallensteinMano DeAyalaFlip risk79%Rep.52%Dem.

How Texas votes

Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.

Staggered Senate

Senators serve four-year terms, with one two-year term after each redistricting, so about half the seats are on the ballot each election.

16 of 31 seats on the ballot; 15 holdovers (7 D, 8 R) serve until a later election.