Pennsylvania · 2026 forecast · Mid-Atlantic region · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Pennsylvania in 2026

Pennsylvania elects a governor, all 17 members of the U.S. House, 25 of 50 members of the State Senate and all 203 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.

On the November 3 ballot: Governor · 17 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.

Governor: D >99%D 99%Josh Shapiro vs. Stacy Garrity
U.S. House: 9.7 D · 7.3 R9.7 D · 7.3 RExpected seats of 17 · 1 toss-up
Pennsylvania State Senate: R 60%R 55%Chance of control · 25 of 50 seats up
Pennsylvania House of Representatives: D 93%D 86%Chance of control · 203 of 203 seats up

Trifecta
Statewide
Environment
U.S. House
General Assembly
Election rules

U.S. House districts · Pennsylvania

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Trifecta

Divided government now

No party holds the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.

After the election

Dem. trifecta: 39%
Divided: 61%
Rep. trifecta: <1%

Divided government most likely continues (61%); 39% chance one party wins a trifecta.

After the election

Dem. trifecta: 42%
Divided: 58%
Rep. trifecta: <1%

Divided government most likely continues (58%); 42% chance one party wins a trifecta.

Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.

Statewide races

Every race decided by the whole state.

Governor

Solid DSolid D

● Josh ShapiroINC● Stacy Garrity

>99%<1%

99%1%

The Pennsylvania environment

The environment Pennsylvania's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.

National environment: D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
Pennsylvania state offices vs. the nation: +0.8± 4.3 (80% range) · 1 polled state race
Pennsylvania state-office environment: D+10.30.8 pts more Democratic than the nation

The polled state races behind it

A candidate who has run far ahead of the seat's usual vote (a long-serving governor, say) counts less: much of that lead is personal, not the state's mood.

Over time

Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Pennsylvania environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.

U.S. House

17 districts. The national House forecast.

Solid D7

Likely D1

PA-7flip

Lean D2

Toss-up1

PA-8risk

Lean R0

Likely R0

Solid R6

Solid D6

Likely D1

PA-17

Lean D3

Toss-up1

PA-8risk

Lean R0

Likely R2

Solid R4

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

Philadelphia

17 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
PA-1D flipD flip	● Bob Harvie● Brian FitzpatrickINC	60%40% 68%32%	D+1.6D+3.6	Lean DLean D	D+1	6
PA-2	● Brendan BoyleINC● Jessica Arriaga	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+48.0D+45.8	Solid DSolid D	D+38	—
PA-3	● Chris Rabb● No RepublicanAlso: Dennis Mahoney (I)	No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot	—	Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)	D+79	—
PA-4	● Madeleine DeanINC● Aurora Stuski	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+26.7D+25.3	Solid DSolid D	D+17	—
PA-5	● Mary Gay ScanlonINC● Nicholas Manganaro	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+39.2D+38.9	Solid DSolid D	D+30	—
PA-6	● Chrissy HoulahanINC● Marty Young	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+23.4D+21.1	Solid DSolid D	D+12	—
PA-7D flipD flip	● Bob Brooks● Ryan MackenzieINC	82%18% 79%21%	D+5.4D+5.7	Likely DLean D	R+2	2
PA-8Flip riskFlip risk	● Paige Cognetti● Rob BresnahanINC	53%47% 46%54%	D+0.5R+0.6	Toss-upToss-up	R+7	3
PA-9	● Rachel Wallace● Dan MeuserINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+29.4R+29.9	Solid RSolid R	R+38	—
PA-10D flipD flip	● Janelle Stelson● Scott PerryINC	72%28% 66%34%	D+3.4D+2.8	Lean DLean D	R+5	4
PA-11	● Nancy Mannion● Lloyd SmuckerINC	4%96% 8%92%	R+12.8R+12.9	Solid RLikely R	R+22	—
PA-12	● Summer LeeINC● James Hayes	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+28.5D+28.7	Solid DSolid D	D+19	—
PA-13	● Beth Farnham● John JoyceINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+36.8R+38.2	Solid RSolid R	R+46	—
PA-14	● Alan Bradstock● Guy ReschenthalerINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+25.4R+25.1	Solid RSolid R	R+33	—
PA-15	● Ray Bilger● Glenn ThompsonINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+31.8R+30.6	Solid RSolid R	R+38	—
PA-16	● Justin Wagner● Mike KellyINC	1%99% 6%94%	R+16.3R+14.4	Solid RLikely R	R+22	—
PA-17	● Chris DeluzioINC● Tony Guy	99%1% 94%6%	D+17.3D+14.5	Solid DLikely D	D+6	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).

Pennsylvania General Assembly

Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.

Pennsylvania State Senate

Avg. 24 D – 26 R seats · 26 for control

Avg. 24 D – 26 R seats · 26 for control

25 of 50 seats up; 25 holdovers.

Full forecast

Pennsylvania State Senate ratings

2 seats projected to flip: 1 R→D, 1 D→R. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

3 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D, 1 D→R. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D12

Likely D0

Lean D1

SD-24flip

Toss-up1

SD-6risk

Lean R3

Likely R0

Solid R8

Solid D9

Likely D3

Lean D2

Toss-up2

Lean R0

Likely R2

Solid R7

Pennsylvania House of Representatives

Dem.

93%

Rep.

Avg. 109 D – 94 R seats · 102 for control

Avg. 110 D – 94 R seats · 102 for control

Full forecast

Pennsylvania House of Representatives ratings

7 seats projected to flip: 5 R→D, 2 D→R. 5 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

9 seats projected to flip: 7 R→D, 2 D→R. 7 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D97

Likely D5

Lean D4

Toss-up5

Lean R5

Likely R13

Solid R74

Solid D82

Likely D16

Lean D8

Toss-up7

Lean R7

Likely R15

Solid R68

Closest legislative races

HD-41Bradford T. ChambersBrett MillerFlip riskD flip51%Rep.61%Dem. HD-40Jonathan C. LloydNatalie StuckFlip riskFlip risk51%Rep.53%Rep. SD-6Eileen T. Hartnett AlbillarFrank FarryFlip riskD flip52%Rep.61%Dem. HD-44Hadley B. HaasValerie GaydosFlip riskD flip53%Dem.62%Dem. HD-13Madelyn G. AlvarinoJohn LawrenceFlip riskFlip risk55%Dem.60%Dem. HD-143Timothy L. HayesShelby LabsFlip riskFlip risk59%Rep.53%Dem.

HD-142Kristin EganJoe HoganD flipD flip60%Dem.69%Dem. SD-40Brian A. WrightsonRosemary BrownFlip risk63%Rep.57%Dem. SD-24Chris ThomasTracy PennycuickD flipD flip67%Dem.74%Dem. SD-16Mark PinsleyJarrett ColemanFlip risk67%Rep.58%Rep. SD-36James MaloneTom JonesR flipR flip68%Rep.82%Rep. HD-137Jeffrey M. WarrenJoe EmrickD flipD flip69%Dem.76%Dem.

How Pennsylvania votes

Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.

Staggered Senate

Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats (the even-numbered districts in 2026) are on the ballot each election.

25 of 50 seats on the ballot; 25 holdovers (10 D, 15 R) serve until a later election.