Ohio · 2026 forecast · Midwest region · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Ohio in 2026

Ohio elects a U.S. senator and a governor, an attorney general, a secretary of state, a treasurer, an auditor, all 15 members of the U.S. House, 17 of 33 members of the State Senate and all 99 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.

On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · Governor · 4 statewide offices · 15 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.

U.S. Senate (special): D 75%D 69%Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted
Governor: D 73%D 72%Amy Acton vs. Vivek Ramaswamy
U.S. House: 6.0 D · 9.0 R5.9 D · 9.1 RExpected seats of 15 · 1 toss-up
Ohio State Senate: R >99%R >99%Chance of control · 17 of 33 seats up
Ohio House of Representatives: R 97%R 97%Chance of control · 99 of 99 seats up
Attorney General: R 61%D 52%John Kulewicz vs. Keith Faber
Secretary of State: R 61%D 53%Allison Russo vs. Robert Sprague
Treasurer: R 62%D 53%Seth Walsh vs. Jay Edwards
Auditor: R 61%D 53%Annette Blackwell vs. Frank LaRose

Trifecta
Statewide
Environment
U.S. House
General Assembly
Election rules

U.S. House districts · Ohio

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Trifecta

Republican trifecta now

Republicans hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.

After the election

Dem. trifecta: <1%
Divided: 73%
Rep. trifecta: 27%

Projected change: divided government is most likely (73%); 27% chance the Republican trifecta holds.

After the election

Dem. trifecta: <1%
Divided: 72%
Rep. trifecta: 28%

Projected change: divided government is most likely (72%); 28% chance the Republican trifecta holds.

Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.

Statewide races

Every race decided by the whole state. Statewide offices nationwide.

U.S. Senate (special) · SpecialD flipD flip

Lean DLean D

● Sherrod Brown● Jon HustedINC

75%25%

69%31%

GovernorD flipD flip

Lean DLean D

● Amy Acton● Vivek Ramaswamy

73%27%

72%28%

Statewide offices

Attorney GeneralFlip risk

Lean RToss-up

● John Kulewicz● Keith Faber

39%61%

52%48%

Secretary of StateFlip risk

Lean RToss-up

● Allison Russo● Robert Sprague

39%61%

53%47%

TreasurerFlip risk

Lean RToss-up

● Seth Walsh● Jay Edwards

38%62%

53%47%

AuditorFlip risk

Lean RToss-up

● Annette Blackwell● Frank LaRose

39%61%

53%47%

Ratings

Lean D2

Lean R4

Lean D2

Toss-up4

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties.

The Ohio environment

The environment Ohio's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.

National environment: D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
Ohio state offices vs. the nation: +1.0± 3.9 (80% range) · 2 polled state races
Ohio state-office environment: D+10.51.0 pts more Democratic than the nation

The polled state races behind it

Over time

Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Ohio environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.

U.S. House

15 districts. The national House forecast.

Solid D3

Likely D1

OH-1

Lean D1

OH-7flip

Toss-up1

OH-9risk

Lean R2

Likely R1

OH-8

Solid R6

Solid D2

Likely D2

Lean D1

OH-7flip

Toss-up1

OH-9risk

Lean R3

Likely R2

Solid R4

Cleveland

15 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
OH-1	● Greg LandsmanINC● Eric Conroy	95%5% 85%15%	D+10.2D+7.4	Likely DLikely D	R+2	3
OH-2	● Jennifer Mazzuckelli● David TaylorINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+33.4R+34.8	Solid RSolid R	R+42	—
OH-3	● Joyce BeattyINC● Cleophus Dulaney	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+50.4D+49.8	Solid DSolid D	D+42	—
OH-4	● Joshua Kolasinski● Jim JordanINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+33.3R+34.8	Solid RSolid R	R+43	—
OH-5	● Brian Shaver● Bob LattaINC	2%98% 5%95%	R+15.0R+15.1	Solid RLikely R	R+23	—
OH-6	● Elizabeth Kirtley● Michael RulliINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+25.7R+25.7	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
OH-7D flipD flip	● Brian Poindexter● Max MillerINC	66%34% 72%28%	D+3.1D+4.7	Lean DLean D	R+11	5
OH-8	● Vanessa Enoch● Warren DavidsonINC	14%86% 20%80%	R+7.3R+7.2	Likely RLean R	R+16	—
OH-9Flip riskFlip risk	● Marcy KapturINC● Derek Merrin	59%41% 44%56%	D+1.3R+0.9	Toss-upToss-up	R+10	2
OH-10	● Kristina Knickerbocker● Mike TurnerINCAlso: Thomas McMasters (L)	23%77% 27%73%	R+5.1R+5.1	Lean RLean R	R+7	3
OH-11	● Shontel BrownINC● Mike Kirchner	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+63.3D+63.2	Solid DSolid D	D+56	—
OH-12	● Jerrad Christian● Troy BaldersonINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+22.4R+22.5	Solid RSolid R	R+30	—
OH-13	● Emilia SykesINC● Carey Coleman	98%2% 91%9%	D+15.5D+12.3	Solid DLikely D	D+4	—
OH-14	● Maria Jukic● David JoyceINC	4%96% 9%91%	R+12.6R+11.7	Solid RLikely R	R+20	—
OH-15	● Don Leonard● Mike CareyINCAlso: Brennan Barrington (L)	35%65% 36%64%	R+2.2R+2.3	Lean RLean R	R+9	3

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).

Ohio General Assembly

Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.

Ohio State Senate

Avg. 11 D – 22 R seats · 17 for control · R supermajority now: 94% it holds

Avg. 11 D – 22 R seats · 17 for control · R supermajority now: 98% it holds

17 of 33 seats up; 16 holdovers.

Full forecast

Ohio State Senate ratings

1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D.

No seat is projected to change parties. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D6

Likely D0

Lean D1

SD-27flip

Toss-up1

SD-13

Lean R2

Likely R2

Solid R5

Solid D6

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up1

SD-27risk

Lean R2

Likely R4

Solid R4

Ohio House of Representatives

Dem.

Rep.

97%

Avg. 42 D – 57 R seats · 50 for control · R supermajority now: 28% it holds

Dem.

Rep.

97%

Avg. 41 D – 58 R seats · 50 for control · R supermajority now: 34% it holds

Full forecast

Ohio House of Representatives ratings

7 seats projected to flip: 7 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

6 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D. 3 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D32

Likely D4

Lean D5

Toss-up2

Lean R3

Likely R9

Solid R44

Solid D28

Likely D4

Lean D8

Toss-up3

Lean R3

Likely R10

Solid R43

Closest legislative races

SD-13Joe MillerGayle Manning51%Rep.64%Rep. HD-44David FournierEdward SchimmelFlip risk51%Rep.63%Rep. HD-17Megan CoyMike DovillaFlip riskFlip risk60%Dem.57%Dem. HD-39Daquan NealMark CampbellD flipFlip risk60%Dem.55%Dem. SD-27Mike RobertoSteve DemetriouD flipFlip risk61%Dem.55%Dem. HD-52Mike BakerNathan ManningD flipD flip64%Dem.64%Dem.

SD-3Stacie BakerMichele Reynolds65%Rep.65%Rep. HD-60Shelby KimballBrian LorenzD flipD flip66%Dem.72%Dem. HD-49Krista AllisonJim ThomasD flipD flip70%Dem.72%Dem. HD-29Jonathan BradnerCindy Abrams71%Rep.66%Rep. HD-75Jake KielmeyerHaraz Ghanbari71%Rep.62%Rep. SD-7Cara JacobZac Haines78%Rep.84%Rep.

How Ohio votes

Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.

Staggered Senate

Senators serve four-year terms; about half the seats are on the ballot each election.

17 of 33 seats on the ballot; 16 holdovers (3 D, 13 R) serve until a later election.