Top-two primary
All candidates run in one primary regardless of party and the two with the most votes advance, so two candidates of the same party can meet in November. The forecast then marks the seat as safe for that party.
California · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Who will control the California State Senate?
20 of 40 seats are on the ballot; the others are elected in alternate years. 21 seats make a majority. The lieutenant governor may break ties, but bills need 21 votes. 27 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.
Democrats are very likely to control the California State Senate (>99%).
Democrats
>99%
chance of control
Republicans
<1%
- Avg. D seats
- 31.880% range 30–34
- Avg. R seats
- 8.280% range 6–10
- Now
- 29 D · 10 R · 1 vacant20 up this year
Democratic supermajority now (29 of 40 seats; 27 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.
29 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party10 R now
Tie: The lieutenant governor may break ties, but bills need 21 votes.
Democrats are very likely to control the California State Senate (>99%).
Democrats
>99%
chance of control
Republicans
<1%
- Avg. D seats
- 31.580% range 29–33
- Avg. R seats
- 8.580% range 7–11
- Now
- 29 D · 10 R · 1 vacant20 up this year
Democratic supermajority now (29 of 40 seats; 27 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.
29 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party10 R now
Tie: The lieutenant governor may break ties, but bills need 21 votes.
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Holdover, not up this year
Race ratings
All 20 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
2 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent.
The map
Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.
California
Los Angeles
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Seats to watch
The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.
Closest races
Most likely to flip
SD-40Mara ElliottKristie Bruce-LaneD flipD flip86%to flip81%to flip SD-6Sean FrameRoger NielloFlip riskD flip43%to flip62%to flip SD-4Jaron BrandonAlexandra Duarte39%to flip23%to flip SD-36Chris DuncanTony StricklandFlip risk36%to flip54%to flip SD-16Melissa HurtadoGuillermo GonzalezFlip risk29%to flip59%to flip SD-32Tiffanie TateKelly Seyarto8%to flip16%to flip SD-14Esmeralda SoriaDarin DuPont3%to flip14%to flip SD-38Catherine BlakespearLaura Bassett1%to flip4%to flip SD-18Steve PadillaArt Hodges<1%to flip3%to flip SD-34Avelino ValenciaRhonda Shader<1%to flip2%to flip
How this chamber is elected
Rules that shape these races and the forecast.
Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats (the even-numbered districts in 2026) are on the ballot each election.
20 of 40 seats on the ballot; 20 holdovers (16 D, 4 R) serve until a later election.
How the odds have moved
Chance of winning control, by forecast date.
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Every outcome we simulated
Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.
Every race
20 races, 3 without a contest between the major parties.
20 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD-2 | ● Damon Connolly● Tief Gibbs | D+50.2D+47.6 | D+46 | — | ||
| SD-4 | ● Jaron Brandon● Alexandra Duarte | R+2.1R+7.0 | R+11 | — | ||
| SD-6Flip riskD flip | ● Sean Frame● Roger NielloINC | R+1.4D+2.8 | R+1 | — | ||
| SD-8 | ● Angelique AshbyINC● Susan Mason | D+42.0D+37.9 | D+36 | — | ||
| SD-10 | ● Scott Sakakihara● Linda Price | D+46.7D+46.8 | D+42 | — | ||
| SD-12 | ● No Democrat● Nathan MagsigAlso: William Brown Jr. (L) | No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot | — | R+25 | — | |
| SD-14 | ● Esmeralda Soria● Darin DuPont | D+16.1D+10.9 | D+8 | — | ||
| SD-16Flip risk | ● Melissa HurtadoINC● Guillermo Gonzalez | D+4.6R+2.3 | R+5 | — | ||
| SD-18 | ● Steve PadillaINC● Art Hodges | D+23.4D+21.5 | D+18 | — | ||
| SD-20 | ● Caroline MenjivarINC● Tony Rodriguez | D+41.7D+36.7 | D+33 | — | ||
| SD-22 | ● Susan RubioINC● Mike Netter | D+25.7D+22.6 | D+19 | — | ||
| SD-24D vs D | ● John Erickson● No RepublicanAlso: Brian Goldsmith (D) | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+39 | — | |
| SD-26D vs D | ● Sara Hernandez● No RepublicanAlso: Sarah Rascón (D) | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+59 | — | |
| SD-28 | ● Lola Smallwood-CuevasINC● Joe Lisuzzo | D+63.1D+68.1 | D+64 | — | ||
| SD-30 | ● Bob ArchuletaINC● Araceli Martinez | D+28.4D+26.2 | D+22 | — | ||
| SD-32 | ● Tiffanie Tate● Kelly SeyartoINC | R+10.4R+9.7 | R+14 | — | ||
| SD-34 | ● Avelino Valencia● Rhonda Shader | D+25.2D+24.3 | D+20 | — | ||
| SD-36Flip risk | ● Chris Duncan● Tony StricklandINC | R+2.7D+1.0 | R+3 | — | ||
| SD-38 | ● Catherine BlakespearINC● Laura Bassett | D+19.5D+18.6 | D+14 | — | ||
| SD-40D flipD flip | ● Mara Elliott● Kristie Bruce-Lane | D+8.1D+8.3 | D+5 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.