Nevada · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Who will control the Nevada State Assembly?
All 42 seats are on the ballot. 22 seats make a majority. 28 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto. November candidates are not yet compiled for 8 races; they are forecast for the seat's current party against a generic challenger.
8 of 42 races have no compiled candidate list yet. Those seats are forecast for their current party against a generic challenger, marked TBD below.
Democrats are very likely to control the Nevada State Assembly (99%).
- Avg. D seats
- 27.780% range 25–31
- Avg. R seats
- 14.380% range 11–17
- Now
- 27 D · 15 R42 up this year
Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (28+ seats): 55%
27 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party15 R now
Democrats are clearly favored to control the Nevada State Assembly (94%).
- Avg. D seats
- 26.980% range 23–31
- Avg. R seats
- 15.180% range 11–19
- Now
- 27 D · 15 R42 up this year
Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (28+ seats): 45%
27 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party15 R now
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
Race ratings
All 42 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Dotted: no candidate list yet; forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.
The map
Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.
Nevada
Las Vegas
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Seats to watch
The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.
Closest races
Most likely to flip
How the odds have moved
Chance of winning control, by forecast date.
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).
Every outcome we simulated
Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.
Every race
42 races, 13 without a contest between the major parties.
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AD-1D vs D | ● Jo Cato● No RepublicanAlso: Tarik Alan Barnes (I) | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+9 | — | |
| AD-2D flipFlip risk | ● Kamilah Bywaters● Drew Teitelbaum | D+2.8D+0.5 | R+5 | — | ||
| AD-3 | ● Selena Torres-FossettINC● Harold Erbacher | D+18.8D+15.4 | D+11 | — | ||
| AD-4 | ● Eileen Eady● Lisa ColeINC | R+3.8R+2.4 | R+8 | — | ||
| AD-5 | ● Brittney MillerINC● Kelly Quinn | D+13.4D+8.5 | D+4 | — | ||
| AD-6D vs D | ● Jovan JacksonINC● No RepublicanAlso: Katherine Duncan (I) | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+54 | — | |
| AD-7 | ● Cameron Miller● No RepublicanAlso: Michael Musick (I), Anthony Willett (L) | No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot | — | D+26 | — | |
| AD-8 | ● Duy NguyenINC● David Farrakhan | D+14.6D+9.8 | D+5 | — | ||
| AD-9 | ● Maria Teresa Hank● Cristhian Orozco | D+9.1D+6.8 | D+3 | — | ||
| AD-10D vs D | ● Venise KarrisINC● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+15 | — | |
| AD-11 | ● Cinthia MooreINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+39 | — | |
| AD-12 | ● Max Carter IIINC● Nancy "Nan" Roecker | D+12.7D+8.2 | D+3 | — | ||
| AD-13 | ● Daniel Andrews● Brian HibbettsINCAlso: Gage C. Beck (L) | R+4.9R+3.3 | R+8 | — | ||
| AD-14 | ● Erica MoscaINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+25 | — | |
| AD-15D vs D | ● Howard WattsINC● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+21 | — | |
| AD-16 | ● Cecelia GonzalezINC● John Carlo | D+15.8D+10.9 | D+7 | — | ||
| AD-17D vs D | ● Linda F. HuntINC● No Republican | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+28 | — | |
| AD-18 | ● Venicia ConsidineINC● Crystal Newton | D+24.8D+21.6 | D+17 | — | ||
| AD-19R vs R | ● No Democrat● Jason PatchettINCAlso: Zackaraih Lysaght (L) | Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November | — | R+29 | — | |
| AD-20D vs D | ● David OrentlicherINC● No RepublicanAlso: Stan Vaughan (IAP) | Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November | — | D+17 | — | |
| AD-21 | ● Elaine MarzolaINC● Patsy A. CarvalhoAlso: Tighe Galvin (L) | D+12.3D+7.9 | D+3 | — | ||
| AD-22 | ● Shenea Booth● Melissa HardyINC | R+12.3R+5.5 | R+11 | — | ||
| AD-23 | ● Jan Allen Aspelund● Denise Daniels Fanning | R+13.9R+11.6 | R+17 | — | ||
| AD-24TBD | ● No candidate● No candidate | D+33.0D+33.7 | D+29 | — | ||
| AD-25R vs R | ● No Democrat● Noah R. Bachman Dodge | Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November | — | D+13 | — | |
| AD-26Flip riskTBD | ● No candidate● No candidate | R+3.6R+1.9 | R+6 | — | ||
| AD-27TBD | ● No candidate● No candidate | D+19.8D+17.9 | D+13 | — | ||
| AD-28 | ● Reuben D'SilvaINC● No Republican | Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed | — | D+31 | — | |
| AD-29 | ● Ashley Delobel● Joe LudwigAlso: Kathryn Nix (L) | D+11.4D+9.6 | D+5 | — | ||
| AD-30TBD | ● No candidate● No candidate | D+19.3D+17.0 | D+13 | — | ||
| AD-31TBD | ● No candidate● No candidate | R+11.0R+10.9 | R+16 | — | ||
| AD-32TBD | ● No candidate● No candidate | R+25.3R+27.7 | R+33 | — | ||
| AD-33TBD | ● No candidate● No candidate | R+48.3R+54.9 | R+59 | — | ||
| AD-34 | ● Hanadi NadeemINC● Brandon Davis | D+18.4D+15.2 | D+10 | — | ||
| AD-35Flip riskD flip | ● Joe Spica● Rebecca EdgeworthINC | D+0.8D+3.5 | R+1 | — | ||
| AD-36 | ● Jon Penn Junejo● Gregory T. Hafen IIINC | R+19.6R+19.9 | R+25 | — | ||
| AD-37 | ● Shea M. BackusINC● Jill M. Douglass | D+11.2D+6.3 | D+1 | — | ||
| AD-38TBD | ● No candidate● No candidate | R+39.6R+44.7 | R+48 | — | ||
| AD-39R vs R | ● No Democrat● Blayne OsbornINC | Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November | — | R+36 | — | |
| AD-40 | ● Oscar Fuentes● Julie Butler | R+8.5R+10.4 | R+15 | — | ||
| AD-41 | ● Spencer L. Ridenour● Tofuola "Tofu" Alofipo | D+8.3D+5.7 | D+1 | — | ||
| AD-42 | ● Tracy Brown-MayINC● Christopher Brandlin | D+16.7D+11.5 | D+7 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.