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What's the difference?

Alabama · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Alabama State Senate?

All 35 seats are on the ballot. 18 seats make a majority. 18 make the majority supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are very likely to control the Alabama State Senate (>99%).

Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
Avg. D seats
8.780% range 8–10
Avg. R seats
26.380% range 25–27
Now
8 D · 27 R35 up this year

Republican supermajority now (27 of 35 seats; 18 needed for majority): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

8 D nowMarks: majority supermajority for each party27 R now

Republicans are very likely to control the Alabama State Senate (>99%).

Democrats
<1%
chance of control
Republicans
>99%
Avg. D seats
8.980% range 8–10
Avg. R seats
26.180% range 25–27
Now
8 D · 27 R35 up this year

Republican supermajority now (27 of 35 seats; 18 needed for majority): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

8 D nowMarks: majority supermajority for each party27 R now

18 for control
18 for control
  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R

Race ratings

All 35 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

No seat is projected to change parties. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D.

Solid D8

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up1

Lean R0

Likely R1

Solid R25

Show 19 more

Solid D6

Likely D2

Lean D1

Toss-up0

Lean R1

Likely R0

Solid R25

Show 19 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Alabama

Birmingham

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

SD-2Rudolph Valentino DrakeJohn RobertsFlip riskD flip56%Dem.74%Dem.

Most likely to flip

SD-2Rudolph Valentino DrakeJohn RobertsFlip riskD flip56%to flip74%to flip SD-7Jared SlussSam Givhan14%to flip29%to flip SD-23Robert StewartThayer Spencer3%to flip12%to flip SD-28Billy BeasleyBrent Comer1%to flip11%to flip SD-16Spencer StoneJ. T. Waggoner1%to flip4%to flip SD-25Phadra Carson FosterWill Barfoot<1%to flip1%to flip SD-3John DickeyArthur Orr<1%to flip<1%to flip SD-14Mandie LedkinsApril Weaver<1%to flip<1%to flip SD-11Donald MotternLance Bell<1%to flip<1%to flip SD-13Jamie ForsythRandy Price<1%to flip<1%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Simple-majority veto override

A majority of the members elected to each chamber can override the governor's veto, so the majority party does not need a supermajority to pass bills over a veto.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats <1%Republicans >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats <1%Republicans >99%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

18 for D control →D majority →← R majority681012141618
18 for D control →D majority →← R majority681012141618

Every race

35 races, 20 without a contest between the major parties.

35 races
DistrictCandidatesChance of winning (D · R)Avg. marginRatingLeanPolls
SD-1
● No Democrat● Tim MelsonINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+54—
SD-2Flip riskD flip
● Rudolph Valentino Drake● John Roberts
56%44%
74%26%
D+1.2D+6.1Toss-upLean DR+1—
SD-3
● John Dickey● Arthur OrrINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+32.4R+34.4Solid RSolid RR+39—
SD-4
● No Democrat● Garlan GudgerINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+81—
SD-5
● No Democrat● Matt WoodsINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+73—
SD-6
● Bobby Martin● Larry StuttsINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+42.1R+48.2Solid RSolid RR+53—
SD-7
● Jared Sluss● Sam GivhanINC
14%86%
29%71%
R+8.0R+5.2Likely RLean RR+12—
SD-8
● Katie Kramer● Steve LivingstonINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+44.1R+50.0Solid RSolid RR+55—
SD-9
● No Democrat● Wes KitchensINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+56—
SD-10
● No Democrat● Andrew JonesINCAlso: Jesse Battles (I)
No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot—Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)R+59—
SD-11
● Donald Mottern● Lance BellINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+40.5R+45.0Solid RSolid RR+50—
SD-12
● No Democrat● Keith KelleyINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+43—
SD-13
● Jamie Forsyth● Randy PriceINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+40.2R+43.4Solid RSolid RR+48—
SD-14
● Mandie Ledkins● April WeaverINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+37.0R+39.9Solid RSolid RR+45—
SD-15
● No Democrat● Scott Ortis
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+39—
SD-16
● Spencer Stone● J. T. WaggonerINC
1%99%
4%96%
R+21.1R+18.0Solid RSolid RR+25—
SD-17
● No Democrat● Shay ShelnuttINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+66—
SD-18
● Rodger SmithermanINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+60—
SD-19
● Merika ColemanINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+30—
SD-20
● Linda Coleman-MadisonINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+56—
SD-21
● No Democrat● Gerald AllenINCAlso: Jolie Woodrow Minor Jr. (I)
No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot—Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)R+30—
SD-22
● Ashley Sharpe● Terry Waters
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+46.7R+53.2Solid RSolid RR+58—
SD-23
● Robert StewartINC● Thayer Spencer
97%3%
88%12%
D+17.2D+12.0Solid DLikely DD+7—
SD-24
● Bobby SingletonINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+18—
SD-25
● Phadra Carson Foster● Will BarfootINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+26.2R+24.6Solid RSolid RR+30—
SD-26
● Kirk HatcherINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+53—
SD-27
● No Democrat● Jay HoveyINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+27—
SD-28
● Billy BeasleyINC● Brent Comer
99%1%
89%11%
D+21.6D+12.4Solid DLikely DD+7—
SD-29
● Jimmy McCray● Donnie ChesteenINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+48.5R+53.9Solid RSolid RR+58—
SD-30
● No Democrat● Clyde ChamblissINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+45—
SD-31
● No Democrat● Josh CarnleyINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+56—
SD-32
● Janet Appleby● Chris ElliottINC
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+44.0R+48.6Solid RSolid RR+54—
SD-33
● Vivian Davis FiguresINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+38—
SD-34
● No Democrat● Rusty Glover
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+38—
SD-35
● No Democrat● David SessionsINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+40—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).