Florida · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Florida House of Representatives?

All 120 seats are on the ballot. 61 seats make a majority. 80 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are very likely to control the Florida House of Representatives (97%).

Democrats

chance of control

Republicans

97%

Avg. D seats: 46.580% range 38–56
Avg. R seats: 73.580% range 64–82
Now: 34 D · 82 R · 4 vacant120 up this year

Republican supermajority now (82 of 120 seats; 80 needed for two-thirds): 19% chance it holds · 81% chance it's broken.

34 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party82 R now

Republicans are very likely to control the Florida House of Representatives (96%).

Democrats

chance of control

Republicans

96%

Avg. D seats: 47.480% range 39–57
Avg. R seats: 72.680% range 63–81
Now: 34 D · 82 R · 4 vacant120 up this year

Republican supermajority now (82 of 120 seats; 80 needed for two-thirds): 16% chance it holds · 84% chance it's broken.

34 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party82 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 120 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

5 seats projected to flip: 5 R→D. 7 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

8 seats projected to flip: 7 R→D, 1 D→R. 8 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D32

Show 26 more

Likely D4

Lean D5

Toss-up7

Lean R8

Likely R15

Solid R49

Show 43 more

Solid D26

Show 20 more

Likely D8

Lean D7

Toss-up9

Lean R9

Likely R14

Solid R47

Show 41 more

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Florida

Miami

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

HD-100Michael Terence FergusonYoni AnijarFlip riskFlip risk51%Rep.54%Rep. HD-22Amy TraskChad JohnsonFlip riskFlip risk53%Rep.50%Dem. HD-91Luis GarciaPeggy Gossett-SeidmanFlip riskFlip risk54%Rep.51%Rep. HD-36Darryl BlockRachel PlakonFlip riskD flip54%Dem.65%Dem. HD-35Eric GrayErika BoothFlip riskFlip risk55%Dem.55%Dem. HD-39Jarod FoxDoug BanksonFlip riskFlip risk56%Dem.59%Dem. HD-65Ben BraverKaren Gonzalez PittmanFlip riskD flip57%Rep.62%Dem. HD-87Emily GregoryJon MaplesR flip60%Dem.67%Rep. HD-73Lisa KleinFiona McFarlandFlip risk63%Rep.50%Rep. HD-61May ThachLinda ChaneyFlip risk69%Rep.59%Rep.

Most likely to flip

HD-37Jane AmanRobert PraterD flipD flip93%to flip85%to flip HD-64Luis SalazarDan WeldonD flipD flip83%to flip75%to flip HD-101Todd DelmayHillary CasselD flipD flip80%to flip72%to flip HD-38Nik DeanEmily Duda BuckleyD flipD flip78%to flip80%to flip HD-93August MangeneyAnne GerwigD flipD flip77%to flip77%to flip HD-39Jarod FoxDoug BanksonFlip riskFlip risk56%to flip59%to flip HD-35Eric GrayErika BoothFlip riskFlip risk55%to flip55%to flip HD-36Darryl BlockRachel PlakonFlip riskD flip54%to flip65%to flip HD-100Michael Terence FergusonYoni AnijarFlip riskFlip risk49%to flip46%to flip HD-22Amy TraskChad JohnsonFlip riskFlip risk47%to flip50%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Unopposed races skip the ballot

A candidate with no opponent is declared elected and the race does not appear on the ballot, so some seats have no vote totals.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

120 races, 30 without a contest between the major parties.

120 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
HD-1	● Francesca Yabraian● Michelle SalzmanINC	1%99% 3%97%	R+20.6R+20.0	Solid RSolid R	R+25	—
HD-2	● Johnny Austin Thompson● Kevin Brown	7%93% 10%90%	R+10.7R+12.8	Likely RLikely R	R+18	—
HD-3	● Ingrid D. Wadsworth● Nathan BoylesINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+43.2R+50.1	Solid RSolid R	R+55	—
HD-4	● John Peter Emerling● Patt ManeyINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+31.9R+33.5	Solid RSolid R	R+39	—
HD-5	● Alex Finney● Shane AbbottINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+48.2R+53.9	Solid RSolid R	R+58	—
HD-6	● Stephanie Lyn Leonard● Tricia Berry	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+39.3R+42.7	Solid RSolid R	R+47	—
HD-7	● John Vellines● Jason ShoafINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+44.1R+49.6	Solid RSolid R	R+53	—
HD-8	● Gallop P. FranklinINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+46	—
HD-9	● Allison TantINC● Tracy Robinson	99%1% 88%12%	D+19.8D+11.3	Solid DLikely D	D+6	—
HD-10	● Merrillee Malwitz Jipson● Marshall Rawson	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+36.2R+40.8	Solid RSolid R	R+45	—
HD-11	● No Democrat● Sam GarrisonINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+35	—
HD-12	● Benjamin Sandlin● Terrance Freeman	22%78% 34%66%	R+5.7R+3.9	Lean RLean R	R+9	—
HD-13	● Audrey Gibson● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+27	—
HD-14	● Kimberly DanielsINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+29	—
HD-15	● No Democrat● Dean BlackINCAlso: Chadd Charland (NPA)	No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot	—	Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)	R+28	—
HD-16	● No Democrat● Kiyan Helen MichaelINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+20	—
HD-17	● Jacob Guerrero● Jessica BakerINC	17%83% 29%71%	R+6.9R+5.4	Likely RLean R	R+11	—
HD-18	● Art Stresing● Kim KendallINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+26.9R+28.5	Solid RSolid R	R+33	—
HD-19	● Suzanna Pavelle● Sam GrecoINC	2%98% 3%97%	R+16.2R+18.8	Solid RSolid R	R+23	—
HD-20	● Lee Butler● Judson SappINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+38.9R+42.8	Solid RSolid R	R+47	—
HD-21	● Jacquelyn Jackie Randall● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+25	—
HD-22Flip riskFlip risk	● Amy Trask● Chad JohnsonINC	47%53% 50%50%	R+0.4D+0.1	Toss-upToss-up	R+5	—
HD-23	● Mark Leland Baker● J.J. GrowINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+37.2R+40.2	Solid RSolid R	R+45	—
HD-24	● No Democrat● Ryan ChamberlinINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+27	—
HD-25	● Farmer Banks Helfrich● Taylor YarkoskyINC	6%94% 11%89%	R+11.2R+11.7	Likely RLikely R	R+16	—
HD-26	● Robyn Elaine Lawrence● Nan CobbINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+22.0R+24.0	Solid RSolid R	R+28	—
HD-27	● Andy Ferrari● Richard GentryINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+28.7R+31.5	Solid RSolid R	R+36	—
HD-28	● Sammy Jackson● Bill PartingtonINCAlso: Joseph Joe Hannoush (L)	7%93% 15%85%	R+11.2R+9.6	Likely RLikely R	R+14	—
HD-29	● Don Kanfer● Webster BarnabyINC	11%89% 16%84%	R+9.1R+9.5	Likely RLikely R	R+13	—
HD-30	● Edwin Munoz● Chase TramontINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+23.7R+25.4	Solid RSolid R	R+30	—
HD-31	● Daniel Lewis Cicirelli● Matt Woodside	1%99% 2%98%	R+18.6R+20.7	Solid RSolid R	R+25	—
HD-32	● Juan J. Hinojosa● Brian HodgersINC	2%98% 7%93%	R+15.5R+14.9	Solid RLikely R	R+20	—
HD-33	● Daniel R. McDow● Monique MillerINC	20%80% 25%75%	R+6.0R+6.3	Lean RLean R	R+10	—
HD-34	● Jordyn Guadalupe Balderas● Robert BrackettINC	<1%>99% 2%98%	R+21.5R+22.5	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
HD-35Flip riskFlip risk	● Eric Gray● Erika BoothINC	55%45% 55%45%	D+0.9D+1.1	Toss-upToss-up	R+4	—
HD-36Flip riskD flip	● Darryl Block● Rachel PlakonINC	54%46% 65%35%	D+0.8D+3.5	Toss-upLean D	R+1	—
HD-37D flipD flip	● Jane Aman● Robert Prater	93%7% 85%15%	D+10.7D+10.1	Likely DLikely D	D+5	—
HD-38D flipD flip	● Nik Dean● Emily Duda Buckley	78%22% 80%20%	D+5.5D+7.9	Lean DLean D	D+3	—
HD-39Flip riskFlip risk	● Jarod Fox● Doug BanksonINC	56%44% 59%41%	D+1.0D+2.0	Toss-upToss-up	R+2	—
HD-40	● Ra'Shon YoungINC● Tuan Le	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+41.9D+43.3	Solid DSolid D	D+38	—
HD-41	● Bruce AntoneINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+47	—
HD-42	● Felipe Sousa Lazaballet● Bonnie Jackson	>99%<1% 98%2%	D+22.1D+21.6	Solid DSolid D	D+16	—
HD-43	● Samuel Vilchez Santiago● Jorge Malavet	99%1% 97%3%	D+22.7D+19.9	Solid DSolid D	D+15	—
HD-44	● Rita HarrisINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+15	—
HD-45	● Leonard SpencerINC● Erin Huntley	92%8% 76%24%	D+10.7D+6.7	Likely DLean D	D+1	—
HD-46	● Jose AlvarezINC● Michael CruzAlso: Ivan A. Rivera (NPA)	>99%<1% 97%3%	D+25.6D+21.6	Solid DSolid D	D+17	—
HD-47	● Anthony Nieves● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+1	—
HD-48	● Alethea Pugh● Jonathan AlbertINC	8%92% 12%88%	R+10.5R+11.2	Likely RLikely R	R+15	—
HD-49	● Robert Anzalone● Jennifer Kincart JonssonINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+26.2R+28.1	Solid RSolid R	R+32	—
HD-50	● Ricky Santiago● Jennifer CanadyINCAlso: Jarvis Washington (NPA)	2%98% 6%94%	R+15.1R+16.0	Solid RLikely R	R+20	—
HD-51	● Octavio E. Hernandez● Hilary HolleyINC	20%80% 18%82%	R+6.2R+8.7	Likely RLikely R	R+12	—
HD-52	● Pamala Kaye Bivins● Samantha ScottINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+29.6R+34.8	Solid RSolid R	R+39	—
HD-53	● Tony Claude● Brian HawkinsAlso: Christopher Anger (CST)	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+27.4R+30.9	Solid RSolid R	R+35	—
HD-54	● No Democrat● Randy MaggardINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+17	—
HD-55	● Zach Funkhouser● Walter Price	1%99% 2%98%	R+20.4R+22.2	Solid RSolid R	R+26	—
HD-56	● Jose Freites● Brad YeagerINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+20.2R+22.2	Solid RSolid R	R+26	—
HD-57	● Wendy Hoy● Adam C. AndersonINC	9%91% 14%86%	R+10.0R+10.5	Likely RLikely R	R+16	—
HD-58	● Bryan Beckman● Kimberly Kim BerfieldINC	24%76% 28%72%	R+5.0R+5.5	Lean RLean R	R+10	—
HD-59	● Susan Rochelle Leff● Berny JacquesINC	7%93% 15%85%	R+11.0R+9.8	Likely RLikely R	R+15	—
HD-60	● Lindsay Polega-Quigley● Melissa Rutland	95%5% 91%9%	D+12.3D+13.2	Solid DLikely D	D+8	—
HD-61Flip risk	● May Thach● Linda ChaneyINC	31%69% 41%59%	R+3.6R+2.1	Lean RToss-up	R+7	—
HD-62D vs D	● Kyandra Darling● No Republican	Democrats only in NovemberDemocrats only in November	—	Solid D (D vs D)Solid D (D vs D)	D+37	—
HD-63	● Jacqueline Coffie-Leeks● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+44	—
HD-64D flipD flip	● Luis Salazar● Dan Weldon	83%17% 75%25%	D+7.5D+6.8	Likely DLean D	D+2	—
HD-65Flip riskD flip	● Ben Braver● Karen Gonzalez PittmanINC	43%57% 62%38%	R+1.3D+3.0	Toss-upLean D	R+4	—
HD-66	● Jose A. "Dante" Sanchez Sanchez● Traci KosterINC	18%82% 27%73%	R+6.6R+5.8	Likely RLean R	R+11	—
HD-67	● Luis Viera● Lisette Bonano	99%1% 96%4%	D+20.6D+18.5	Solid DSolid D	D+14	—
HD-68	● Tony Smith● Ryan Gill	1%99% 2%98%	R+21.4R+23.1	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
HD-69Flip risk	● Ashley Elizabeth Herrmann● Daniel Danny AlvarezINC	29%71% 43%57%	R+3.9R+1.6	Lean RToss-up	R+7	—
HD-70	● Luther Keith Wilkins● Michael OwenINC	8%92% 18%82%	R+10.2R+8.6	Likely RLikely R	R+13	—
HD-71	● Ocean Fitts● Jordan VarnadoreAlso: Joseph Hoolihan (NPA)	7%93% 13%87%	R+10.5R+10.7	Likely RLikely R	R+14	—
HD-72	● Harvey Shifrin● William Bill ConerlyINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+20.5R+21.1	Solid RSolid R	R+25	—
HD-73Flip risk	● Lisa Klein● Fiona McFarlandINC	37%63% 50%50%	R+2.3R+0.1	Lean RToss-up	R+5	—
HD-74	● Ryan Neill● Nick Pachota	1%99% 3%97%	R+19.7R+18.8	Solid RSolid R	R+24	—
HD-75	● Cynthia L. Butler● Danny Nix Jr.INC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+21.8R+24.1	Solid RSolid R	R+29	—
HD-76	● Phillip Ray Carter● Vanessa OliverINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+29.1R+31.4	Solid RSolid R	R+36	—
HD-77	● Cornelius Fowler● Tiffany EspositoINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+19.3R+20.4	Solid RSolid R	R+23	—
HD-78	● Cindy Banyai● Susan Frantz	8%92% 14%86%	R+10.4R+10.1	Likely RLikely R	R+14	—
HD-79	● No Democrat● Mike GiallombardoINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+34	—
HD-80	● William Moskal● Adam BotanaINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+23.0R+24.2	Solid RSolid R	R+29	—
HD-81	● Kim Finer● Yvette BenarrochINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+23.1R+24.7	Solid RSolid R	R+30	—
HD-82	● Arthur Boyer● Liesa Priddy	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+27.1R+28.4	Solid RSolid R	R+32	—
HD-83	● Leigh Estes● Kaylee TuckINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+35.5R+40.2	Solid RSolid R	R+44	—
HD-84	● Jennifer Massey● Dana TrabulsyINC	14%86% 26%74%	R+7.9R+6.1	Likely RLean R	R+9	—
HD-85	● Wayne Richter● Anthony BonnaAlso: Amr Metwally (I)	21%79% 20%80%	R+5.7R+8.1	Lean RLikely R	R+12	—
HD-86	● Elizabeth Brendel Pandich● John SnyderINC	<1%>99% 2%98%	R+21.8R+22.2	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
HD-87R flip	● Emily GregoryINC● Jon Maples	60%40% 33%67%	D+2.0R+4.0	Lean DLean R	R+8	—
HD-88	● Jervonte Tae EdmondsINC● William Joseph	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+44.2D+45.9	Solid DSolid D	D+41	—
HD-89	● Debra TendrichINC● Cathy Higgins	96%4% 83%17%	D+15.5D+9.8	Solid DLikely D	D+6	—
HD-90	● Rob LongINC● Ionel Roiban	99%1% 95%5%	D+21.1D+17.1	Solid DSolid D	D+13	—
HD-91Flip riskFlip risk	● Luis Garcia● Peggy Gossett-SeidmanINC	46%54% 49%51%	R+0.8R+0.3	Toss-upToss-up	R+5	—
HD-92	● Kelly SkidmoreINC● Steve Byers	99%1% 94%6%	D+19.8D+15.9	Solid DLikely D	D+11	—
HD-93D flipD flip	● August Mangeney● Anne GerwigINC	77%23% 77%23%	D+5.4D+6.9	Lean DLean D	D+3	—
HD-94	● Elizabeth Holmes● Megan WeinbergerINCAlso: Doug Barrow (NPA)	22%78% 34%66%	R+5.5R+3.9	Lean RLean R	R+7	—
HD-95	● Christine HunschofskyINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+15	—
HD-96	● Dan DaleyINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+22	—
HD-97	● Lisa DunkleyINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+55	—
HD-98	● Mitch RosenwaldINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+33	—
HD-99	● Daryl Nevroy CampbellINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+48	—
HD-100Flip riskFlip risk	● Michael Terence Ferguson● Yoni Anijar	49%51% 46%54%	R+0.1R+0.9	Toss-upToss-up	R+6	—
HD-101D flipD flip	● Todd Delmay● Hillary CasselINC	80%20% 72%28%	D+6.2D+5.6	Lean DLean D	D+2	—
HD-102	● Michael Mike Friend● Mery Lopez-Palma	94%6% 88%12%	D+12.2D+11.3	Likely DLikely D	D+7	—
HD-103	● Robin BartlemanINC● Imtiaz Mohammad	98%2% 91%9%	D+19.7D+14.1	Solid DLikely D	D+9	—
HD-104	● Felicia Simone RobinsonINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+33	—
HD-105	● Marie WoodsonINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+32	—
HD-106R vs R	● No Democrat● Fabián BasabeINC	Republicans only in NovemberRepublicans only in November	—	Solid R (R vs R)Solid R (R vs R)	R+4	—
HD-107	● Wallace AristideINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+40	—
HD-108	● Daphne Campbell● Wancito Francius	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+53.0D+56.5	Solid DSolid D	D+51	—
HD-109	● James Bush III● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+36	—
HD-110	● No Democrat● Tom FabricioINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+35	—
HD-111	● No Democrat● David BorreroINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+28	—
HD-112	● No Democrat● Alex RizoINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+41	—
HD-113	● Gloria Romero Roses● Bruno A. Barreiro	71%29% 60%40%	D+4.7D+2.5	Lean DToss-up	R+1	—
HD-114	● No Democrat● Demi BusattaINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+8	—
HD-115	● Marcos Reyes● Omar BlancoINC	14%86% 21%79%	R+8.5R+8.3	Likely RLean R	R+13	—
HD-116	● Nicolas Ramos● Ashley Perez-Biliskov	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+25.5R+27.2	Solid RSolid R	R+31	—
HD-117	● Kevin ChamblissINC● Miguel Granda	98%2% 91%9%	D+18.8D+14.3	Solid DLikely D	D+9	—
HD-118	● Armando A.C. Castillo● Mike RedondoINC	1%99% 1%99%	R+22.8R+26.0	Solid RSolid R	R+30	—
HD-119	● Rey Lazaro Sordo● Juan Carlos PorrasINC	3%97% 4%96%	R+16.2R+19.5	Solid RSolid R	R+23	—
HD-120	● No Democrat● James Vernon "Jim" Mooney Jr.INC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+16	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%). Badges mark election rules (hover or long-press for details): RCV = ranked-choice voting; Top two / Top four = the leading primary finishers advance; All-party = every candidate on one November ballot; TBD = no candidate list yet, forecast for the seat's party against a generic challenger.