Utah · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Utah House of Representatives?

All 75 seats are on the ballot. 38 seats make a majority. 50 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Republicans are very likely to control the Utah House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 21.680% range 18–25
Avg. R seats: 53.480% range 50–57
Now: 14 D · 60 R · 1 vacant75 up this year

Republican supermajority now (60 of 75 seats; 50 needed for two-thirds): 90% chance it holds · 10% chance it's broken.

14 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party60 R now

Republicans are very likely to control the Utah House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats

<1%

chance of control

Republicans

>99%

Avg. D seats: 22.980% range 19–27
Avg. R seats: 52.180% range 48–56
Now: 14 D · 60 R · 1 vacant75 up this year

Republican supermajority now (60 of 75 seats; 50 needed for two-thirds): 82% chance it holds · 18% chance it's broken.

14 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party60 R now

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R

Race ratings

All 75 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

6 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D. 3 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

8 seats projected to flip: 8 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D16

Show 10 more

Likely D0

Lean D4

Toss-up3

Lean R2

Likely R7

Solid R43

Show 37 more

HD-1
HD-2
HD-3
HD-5
HD-6
HD-12
HD-14
HD-15
HD-19
HD-28
HD-29
HD-38
HD-47
HD-49
HD-50
HD-51
HD-52
HD-53
HD-54
HD-55
HD-56
HD-57
HD-58
HD-60
HD-63
HD-64
HD-65
HD-66
HD-67
HD-68
HD-69
HD-70
HD-71
HD-72
HD-73
HD-74
HD-75

Solid D13

Show 7 more

Likely D7

Lean D2

Toss-up1

HD-8risk

Lean R3

Likely R8

Solid R41

Show 35 more

HD-1
HD-2
HD-3
HD-5
HD-6
HD-12
HD-13
HD-15
HD-19
HD-28
HD-29
HD-38
HD-47
HD-49
HD-50
HD-51
HD-52
HD-53
HD-54
HD-55
HD-57
HD-58
HD-60
HD-63
HD-64
HD-65
HD-66
HD-67
HD-68
HD-70
HD-71
HD-72
HD-73
HD-74
HD-75

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Utah

Salt Lake City

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

HD-59Celeste T. JohnsonLuke SearleFlip risk51%Dem.68%Rep. HD-20Phil GravesMelissa BallardFlip riskD flip54%Rep.63%Dem. HD-36Blake TownsendJim DunniganFlip riskD flip58%Dem.84%Dem. HD-39Drew HowellsKen IvoryD flipD flip65%Dem.86%Dem. HD-27Liz OatesAnthony LoubetD flipD flip67%Dem.73%Dem. HD-8Kim JamesJason B KyleFlip risk76%Rep.54%Rep. HD-44Jess BirtcherJordan Teuscher76%Rep.62%Rep. HD-42Iva WilliamsClint OkerlundD flipD flip79%Dem.81%Dem. HD-26Michael E FinchMatt MacphersonD flipD flip80%Dem.81%Dem.

Most likely to flip

HD-10Rosemary T LesserJim AlveyD flipD flip97%to flip88%to flip HD-43Ofa MatagiSteve EliasonD flipD flip95%to flip98%to flip HD-26Michael E FinchMatt MacphersonD flipD flip80%to flip81%to flip HD-42Iva WilliamsClint OkerlundD flipD flip79%to flip81%to flip HD-27Liz OatesAnthony LoubetD flipD flip67%to flip73%to flip HD-39Drew HowellsKen IvoryD flipD flip65%to flip86%to flip HD-36Blake TownsendJim DunniganFlip riskD flip58%to flip84%to flip HD-59Celeste T. JohnsonLuke SearleFlip risk51%to flip32%to flip HD-20Phil GravesMelissa BallardFlip riskD flip46%to flip63%to flip HD-8Kim JamesJason B KyleFlip risk24%to flip46%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

Every race

75 races, 13 without a contest between the major parties.

75 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
HD-1	● Chris Reid● Thomas PetersonINCAlso: Jason O'Dell (CST)	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+53.8R+62.2	Solid RSolid R	R+66	—
HD-2	● Barbara J. Haggerty● Mike PetersenINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+27.7R+31.0	Solid RSolid R	R+40	—
HD-3	● No Democrat● Jason E. ThompsonINCAlso: Patrick Belmont (I)	No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot	—	Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)	R+11	—
HD-4	● Zane Woolstenhulme● Tiara AuxierINC	8%92% 9%91%	R+10.7R+13.6	Likely RLikely R	R+18	—
HD-5	● Kendra Penry● Casey SniderINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+37.9R+42.5	Solid RSolid R	R+51	—
HD-6	● No Democrat● Rob BishopINCAlso: James Rich (FWD)	No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot	—	Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)	R+54	—
HD-7	● Bianca Mittendorf● Ryan D. WilcoxINC	3%97% 7%93%	R+16.4R+14.7	Solid RLikely R	R+25	—
HD-8Flip risk	● Kim James● Jason B KyleINCAlso: Libby Shelton (FWD)	24%76% 46%54%	R+5.6R+1.0	Lean RToss-up	R+13	—
HD-9	● Angela Choberka● Jake SawyerINC	10%90% 12%88%	R+9.6R+11.7	Likely RLikely R	R+21	—
HD-10D flipD flip	● Rosemary T Lesser● Jim Alvey	97%3% 88%12%	D+16.0D+11.6	Solid DLikely D	R+3	—
HD-11	● Dave Calder● Katy HallINC	6%94% 15%85%	R+13.8R+10.0	Likely RLikely R	R+21	—
HD-12	● Anna Graff● Mike SchultzINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+30.4R+34.9	Solid RSolid R	R+44	—
HD-13	● Jeffrey Anderson● Erik R. CraythorneAlso: Tony De Mille (FWD)	1%99% 1%99%	R+18.3R+24.2	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
HD-14	● Brandon Young● John Taylor	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+22.6R+23.7	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
HD-15	● Anne Berbert● Ariel DefayINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+27.7R+28.9	Solid RSolid R	R+39	—
HD-16	● Abigail Treasure● Bob J Stevenson	7%93% 10%90%	R+11.4R+12.8	Likely RLikely R	R+24	—
HD-17	● Eric Last● Lili Bitner	1%99% 4%96%	R+19.6R+18.3	Solid RSolid R	R+28	—
HD-18	● Scott Troxel● Paul CutlerINC	2%98% 5%95%	R+17.2R+16.9	Solid RSolid R	R+26	—
HD-19	● No Democrat● Raymond P. WardINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+16	—
HD-20Flip riskD flip	● Phil Graves● Melissa BallardINC	46%54% 63%37%	R+0.8D+3.2	Toss-upLean D	R+8	—
HD-21	● Stephen Otterstrom● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+44	—
HD-22	● Jen Dailey-ProvostINC● Char Varga	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+63.2D+67.0	Solid DSolid D	D+61	—
HD-23	● Hoang NguyenINC● Franklin D. RobinsonAlso: Cabot W Nelson (FWD)	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+59.0D+63.3	Solid DSolid D	D+59	—
HD-24	● Grant Amjad MillerINC● Braeden J. Oswald	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+68.4D+76.2	Solid DSolid D	D+67	—
HD-25	● Angela RomeroINC● Richard T Nowak	>99%<1% 99%1%	D+33.5D+31.4	Solid DSolid D	D+24	—
HD-26D flipD flip	● Michael E Finch● Matt MacphersonINC	80%20% 81%19%	D+6.4D+8.7	Lean DLikely D	Even	—
HD-27D flipD flip	● Liz Oates● Anthony LoubetINC	67%33% 73%27%	D+3.3D+5.9	Lean DLean D	R+6	—
HD-28	● Anita Dalrymple● Nicholeen PeckINCAlso: Wales Nematollahi (FWD)	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+23.2R+25.6	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
HD-29	● Sara Snow● Sheldon BirchAlso: Tynley Bean (FWD), Jonathan Garrard (CST)	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+44.6R+53.6	Solid RSolid R	R+59	—
HD-30	● Jake FitisemanuINC● Dave Parke	99%1% 93%7%	D+18.9D+15.2	Solid DLikely D	D+4	—
HD-31	● Verona MaugaINC● Melody Jones	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+31.2D+30.9	Solid DSolid D	D+15	—
HD-32	● Sahara HayesINC● Aileen Hampton	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+58.6D+67.3	Solid DSolid D	D+51	—
HD-33	● Doug OwensINC● Anna Reeves	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+42.1D+40.3	Solid DSolid D	D+35	—
HD-34	● Julie Jackson● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+28	—
HD-35	● Rosalba DominguezINC● Monique I. Ketcham	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+33.9D+38.6	Solid DSolid D	D+19	—
HD-36Flip riskD flip	● Blake Townsend● Jim DunniganINC	58%42% 84%16%	D+1.7D+9.6	Toss-upLikely D	R+4	—
HD-37	● Ashlee MatthewsINC● Casey Saxton	98%2% 91%9%	D+17.7D+14.0	Solid DLikely D	D+4	—
HD-38	● No Democrat● Chris McConneheyAlso: Sergio Sotelo (I)	No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot	—	Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)	R+11	—
HD-39D flipD flip	● Drew Howells● Ken IvoryINC	65%35% 86%14%	D+3.2D+10.8	Lean DLikely D	R+6	—
HD-40	● Andrew StoddardINC● No Republican	Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed	—	Uncontested DUncontested D	D+18	—
HD-41	● John ArthurINC● Darren Croft	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+31.5D+33.5	Solid DSolid D	D+24	—
HD-42D flipD flip	● Iva Williams● Clint OkerlundINC	79%21% 81%19%	D+6.3D+8.8	Lean DLikely D	D+2	—
HD-43D flipD flip	● Ofa Matagi● Steve EliasonINC	95%5% 98%2%	D+15.1D+22.1	Solid DSolid D	D+5	—
HD-44	● Jess Birtcher● Jordan TeuscherINC	24%76% 38%62%	R+5.4R+3.0	Lean RLean R	R+14	—
HD-45	● Rod Moser● Tracy MillerINC	15%85% 26%74%	R+8.1R+6.2	Likely RLean R	R+17	—
HD-46	● Braxten Rutherford● Cal RobertsINC	4%96% 12%88%	R+15.2R+11.6	Solid RLikely R	R+21	—
HD-47	● No Democrat● Mark A. StrongINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+32	—
HD-48	● Benyde Walker● Jake Hunsaker	15%85% 15%85%	R+8.0R+10.1	Likely RLikely R	R+22	—
HD-49	● Lillian Bowles● Candice B. PierucciINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+22.4R+26.0	Solid RSolid R	R+36	—
HD-50	● Kristin Meyer● Stephanie GriciusINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+40.0R+45.1	Solid RSolid R	R+52	—
HD-51	● Brett Nielsen● Leah HansenINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+27.2R+34.7	Solid RSolid R	R+42	—
HD-52	● Nicole Melling● Cory MaloyINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+29.1R+31.4	Solid RSolid R	R+40	—
HD-53	● Kevin R Slater● Kay J. ChristoffersonINCAlso: John Boyd (FWD)	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+32.7R+35.0	Solid RSolid R	R+42	—
HD-54	● Kristina Robinson● Kristen S. ChevrierINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+37.4R+45.1	Solid RSolid R	R+50	—
HD-55	● Travis Hysell● Jon HawkinsINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+33.6R+37.0	Solid RSolid R	R+45	—
HD-56	● Natassja Grossman● Val L. PetersonINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+22.5R+22.1	Solid RSolid R	R+30	—
HD-57	● No Democrat● Nelson AbbottINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+32	—
HD-58	● Karli Black● David ShallenbergerINC	<1%>99% 1%99%	R+26.0R+26.7	Solid RSolid R	R+34	—
HD-59Flip risk	● Celeste T. Johnson● Luke Searle	51%49% 32%68%	D+0.2R+4.6	Toss-upLean R	R+10	—
HD-60	● No Democrat● Grant PaceINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+13	—
HD-61	● Alan Jimenez● Lisa ShepherdINCAlso: Jennifer K Doud (CST)	1%99% 3%97%	R+21.1R+19.6	Solid RSolid R	R+27	—
HD-62	● David Chappell● Norm ThurstonINC	7%93% 12%88%	R+11.6R+12.0	Likely RLikely R	R+19	—
HD-63	● Mark Youngquist● Stephen L. WhyteINCAlso: Julie Smith (FWD)	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+36.8R+41.2	Solid RSolid R	R+49	—
HD-64	● No Democrat● Jackie LarsonINCAlso: Alan Wessman (I)	No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot	—	Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)	R+56	—
HD-65	● No Democrat● Doug WeltonINC	Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed	—	Uncontested RUncontested R	R+62	—
HD-66	● Breanne Mashek● Troy ShelleyINCAlso: Russ Hatch (CST)	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+56.4R+69.0	Solid RSolid R	R+73	—
HD-67	● Carl Ingwell● JR Bird	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+45.1R+56.5	Solid RSolid R	R+60	—
HD-68	● No Democrat● Scott H ChewINCAlso: Sonya Ray (CST)	No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot	—	Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)	R+76	—
HD-69	● Tracie Yellowman Tso● Logan J. MonsonINC	1%99% 2%98%	R+21.1R+24.3	Solid RSolid R	R+28	—
HD-70	● Stacey D. Pendergraft● Carl R. AlbrechtINCAlso: Zeno B. Parry (FWD)	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+58.9R+71.9	Solid RSolid R	R+75	—
HD-71	● Thomas Loveheart● Rex P ShippINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+41.9R+49.3	Solid RSolid R	R+54	—
HD-72	● Eva M Weldon● Joseph ElisonINCAlso: April A Pinkston (CST)	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+45.7R+54.4	Solid RSolid R	R+60	—
HD-73	● Glenn D Webb● Colin W. JackINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+42.7R+49.9	Solid RSolid R	R+57	—
HD-74	● Jeffrey N Lipe● R. Neil WalterINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+35.5R+38.5	Solid RSolid R	R+44	—
HD-75	● Rebecca Winsor● Walt BrooksINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+39.8R+45.9	Solid RSolid R	R+52	—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).