Staggered Senate
Senators serve four-year terms; half the seats are on the ballot each election.
25 of 50 seats on the ballot; 25 holdovers (9 D, 16 R) serve until a later election.
Montana · 2026 forecast · Mountain West region · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Montana in 2026
Montana elects a U.S. senator, all 2 members of the U.S. House, 25 of 50 members of the State Senate and all 100 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.
On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · 2 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.
U.S. House districts · Montana
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Trifecta
Republican trifecta now
Republicans hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- <1%
- Divided
- <1%
- Rep. trifecta
- >99%
The Republican trifecta most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance it is broken.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- <1%
- Divided
- <1%
- Rep. trifecta
- >99%
The Republican trifecta most likely continues (>99%); <1% chance it is broken.
Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.
Statewide races
Every race decided by the whole state.
The Montana environment
The environment Montana's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
- Montana state offices vs. the nation
- +0.0± 4.5 (80% range) · 0 polled state races
- Montana state-office environment
- D+9.5In line with the nation
The polled state races behind it
No governor, statewide or legislative race in Montana is polled yet, so its state races run at the national environment.
Over time
Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Montana environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.
U.S. House
2 districts. The national House forecast.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans).
2 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT-1 | ● Sam Forstag● Aaron FlintAlso: Nick Sheedy (L) | R+2.6R+4.1 | R+12 | 6 | ||
| MT-2 | ● Brian Miller● Troy DowningINCAlso: Michael Eisenhauer (I) | R+25.5R+26.6 | R+30 | 1 |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).
Montana Legislature
Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.
Montana State Senate
Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%
Avg. 19 D – 31 R seats · 26 for control · R two-thirds supermajority 1%
Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%
Avg. 18 D – 32 R seats · 26 for control · R two-thirds supermajority 10%
25 of 50 seats up; 25 holdovers.
Full forecastMontana State Senate ratings
2 seats projected to flip: 2 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
2 seats projected to flip: 1 R→D, 1 D→R. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Montana House of Representatives
Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%
Avg. 43 D – 57 R seats · 51 for control
Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%
Avg. 39 D – 61 R seats · 51 for control · R two-thirds supermajority 11%
Montana House of Representatives ratings
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D.
1 seat projected to flip: 1 D→R. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Closest legislative races
SD-42Mary Ann DunwellStephen LapraimFlip riskR flip52%Rep.83%Rep. HD-4Paula KochShaun PandinaD flipFlip risk69%Dem.54%Rep. SD-10Margaret MitchellJessica DyrdahlD flipFlip risk69%Dem.59%Rep. HD-20Steve KellerMelissa Nikolakakos74%Rep.70%Rep. HD-23Rebecca Bogden-RichardsEric Tilleman78%Rep.73%Rep. HD-42Sidney Chip FitzpatrickJeremiah JabsR flip78%Dem.60%Rep.
How Montana votes
Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.