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Colorado · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Colorado House of Representatives?

All 65 seats are on the ballot. 33 seats make a majority. 44 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Democrats are very likely to control the Colorado House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats
>99%
chance of control
Republicans
<1%
Avg. D seats
47.680% range 45–51
Avg. R seats
17.480% range 14–20
Now
42 D · 22 R · 1 vacant65 up this year

Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (44+ seats): 97%

42 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party22 R now

Democrats are very likely to control the Colorado House of Representatives (>99%).

Democrats
>99%
chance of control
Republicans
<1%
Avg. D seats
46.480% range 42–50
Avg. R seats
18.680% range 15–23
Now
42 D · 22 R · 1 vacant65 up this year

Chance Democrats win a two-thirds supermajority (44+ seats): 84%

42 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party22 R now

33 for control
33 for control
  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R

Race ratings

All 65 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

4 seats projected to flip: 4 R→D.

4 seats projected to flip: 4 R→D.

Solid D43

Show 37 more

Likely D3

Lean D1

Toss-up0

Lean R4

Likely R3

Solid R11

Solid D32

Show 26 more

Likely D11

Lean D4

Toss-up0

Lean R4

Likely R4

Solid R10

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Colorado

Denver

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

HD-50Tommy ButlerRyan GonzalezD flipD flip68%Dem.67%Dem. HD-21Michelle TweedBrenda Miller74%Rep.84%Rep. HD-39Christian SchilderBrandi Bradley76%Rep.70%Rep. HD-44Richard BownessAnthony Hartsook76%Rep.70%Rep. HD-15Jeff K. LivingstonPricella Tiegen77%Rep.83%Rep.

Most likely to flip

HD-16Stephanie VigilJill HaffleyD flipD flip98%to flip90%to flip HD-19Jillaire McMillanDan WoogD flipD flip88%to flip90%to flip HD-51Jacki MarshAmy ParksD flipD flip81%to flip67%to flip HD-50Tommy ButlerRyan GonzalezD flipD flip68%to flip67%to flip HD-21Michelle TweedBrenda Miller26%to flip16%to flip HD-39Christian SchilderBrandi Bradley24%to flip30%to flip HD-44Richard BownessAnthony Hartsook24%to flip30%to flip HD-15Jeff K. LivingstonPricella Tiegen23%to flip17%to flip HD-22Michael PiersonKen DeGraaf19%to flip25%to flip HD-14Sarah EmeryAva Flanell16%to flip22%to flip

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats >99%Republicans <1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats >99%Republicans <1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

33 for D control →D two-thirds →3540455055
33 for D control →D two-thirds →3540455055

Every race

65 races, 15 without a contest between the major parties.

65 races
DistrictCandidatesChance of winning (D · R)Avg. marginRatingLeanPolls
HD-1
● Javier MabreyINC● Joseph Montoya
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+39.4D+38.2Solid DSolid DD+32—
HD-2
● Scott Baldermann● Carey Marin
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+57.3D+63.7Solid DSolid DD+59—
HD-3
● Gena Ozols● Rebecca Winegar
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+40.6D+40.8Solid DSolid DD+36—
HD-4
● Cecelia EspenozaINC● Ellwood ErvinAlso: Bill Hare (FWD)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+63.5D+66.7Solid DSolid DD+62—
HD-5
● Justine Sandoval● Johnnie W. Johnson
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+61.2D+67.3Solid DSolid DD+62—
HD-6
● Iris Halpern● Kathleen Angel
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+71.9D+76.4Solid DSolid DD+72—
HD-7
● Jennifer BaconINC● No RepublicanAlso: Jeff Wilson (L)
No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot—Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)D+51—
HD-8
● Lindsay GilchristINC● Carolyn BarnesAlso: Jesse Lashawn Parris (OTH)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+76.0D+81.2Solid DSolid DD+77—
HD-9
● Monica VanBuskirk● Tom Cowhick
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+54.6D+57.1Solid DSolid DD+52—
HD-10
● Junie JosephINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+76—
HD-11
● Karen McCormickINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+41—
HD-12
● Kyle BrownINC● Ryan Rhatigan
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+60.8D+63.8Solid DSolid DD+59—
HD-13
● Consuelo Redhorse● Miguel Martinez
98%2%
92%8%
D+16.0D+13.8Solid DLikely DD+11—
HD-14
● Sarah Emery● Ava FlanellINC
16%84%
22%78%
R+7.6R+7.4Likely RLean RR+12—
HD-15
● Jeff K. Livingston● Pricella TiegenAlso: Doug Jones (L)
23%77%
17%83%
R+5.4R+9.1Lean RLikely RR+14—
HD-16D flipD flip
● Stephanie Vigil● Jill HaffleyAlso: John Hjersman (L)
98%2%
90%10%
D+16.7D+12.3Solid DLikely DD+7—
HD-17
● Regina EnglishINC● Laura MartinAlso: John Michael Angle (L)
>99%<1%
96%4%
D+23.1D+18.3Solid DSolid DD+13—
HD-18
● Amy PaschalINC● Adriana Cuva
99%1%
94%6%
D+20.5D+16.0Solid DLikely DD+11—
HD-19D flipD flip
● Jillaire McMillan● Dan WoogINC
88%12%
90%10%
D+9.1D+12.5Likely DLikely DD+8—
HD-20
● No Democrat● Jarvis CaldwellINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+34—
HD-21
● Michelle Tweed● Brenda Miller
26%74%
16%84%
R+4.5R+9.4Lean RLikely RR+15—
HD-22
● Michael Pierson● Ken DeGraafINC
19%81%
25%75%
R+6.6R+6.5Likely RLean RR+12—
HD-23
● Alexis Hoffkling● No RepublicanAlso: Ross Metler (L)
No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot—Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)D+31—
HD-24
● Lisa FeretINC● Kristopher Johnson
>99%<1%
98%2%
D+24.7D+22.4Solid DSolid DD+18—
HD-25
● Tammy StoryINC● Mark Herzfeld
99%1%
92%8%
D+18.3D+14.2Solid DLikely DD+10—
HD-26
● Meghan LukensINC● James Kellogg
98%2%
85%15%
D+16.9D+9.8Solid DLikely DD+7—
HD-27
● Danielle Varda● Eric Bodenstab
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+27.7D+26.5Solid DSolid DD+22—
HD-28
● David Rein● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+11—
HD-29
● Lori GoldsteinINC● Kristine Ireland
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+30.2D+26.9Solid DSolid DD+23—
HD-30
● Rebekah StewartINC● William Tyler Switzer
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+36.6D+35.7Solid DSolid DD+31—
HD-31
● Gabriel Cervantes● Ray Roll
>99%<1%
97%3%
D+23.4D+19.7Solid DSolid DD+14—
HD-32
● Chris VanDijk● Michelle D. Lee
99%1%
94%6%
D+24.1D+16.5Solid DLikely DD+11—
HD-33
● Kenny NguyenINC● Nate Jorgensen
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+30.6D+27.8Solid DSolid DD+23—
HD-34
● Jenny WillfordINC● Craig Sullivan
99%1%
93%7%
D+18.9D+14.3Solid DLikely DD+9—
HD-35
● Lorena GarciaINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+28—
HD-36
● Michael CarterINC● Paul NelsonAlso: Andrew Gibson (L)
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+39.6D+32.1Solid DSolid DD+27—
HD-37
● Chad CliffordINC● Jill Thompson
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+33.6D+25.4Solid DSolid DD+20—
HD-38
● Gretchen RydinINC● No RepublicanAlso: Tim Martin (OTH), Norm Olsen (L), Allison Madrigal (I)
No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot—Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)D+16—
HD-39
● Christian Schilder● Brandi BradleyINC
24%76%
30%70%
R+5.2R+5.0Lean RLean RR+9—
HD-40
● Naquetta RicksINC● Clinton Porter
>99%<1%
99%1%
D+27.1D+26.1Solid DSolid DD+21—
HD-41
● Jamie JacksonINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+32—
HD-42
● Sarah Woodson● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+40—
HD-43
● Bob MarshallINC● Nate Marsh
98%2%
88%12%
D+15.7D+11.7Solid DLikely DD+7—
HD-44
● Richard Bowness● Anthony HartsookAlso: John Sutton (L)
24%76%
30%70%
R+5.2R+5.0Lean RLean RR+10—
HD-45
● Michael Clarkson● Max BrooksINCAlso: Caryn Ann Harlos (L)
5%95%
10%90%
R+12.4R+12.8Likely RLikely RR+17—
HD-46
● Tisha MauroINC● Jonathan Post
95%5%
74%26%
D+12.7D+6.1Likely DLean DEven—
HD-47
● Victor Meyers● Ty WinterINC
<1%>99%
1%99%
R+22.5R+25.8Solid RSolid RR+30—
HD-48
● Dez Packard● Carlos BarronINCAlso: Eric Joss (L)
1%99%
3%97%
R+21.4R+19.6Solid RSolid RR+25—
HD-49
● Lesley SmithINC● Michael Sheperek
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+37.8D+37.2Solid DSolid DD+34—
HD-50D flipD flip
● Tommy Butler● Ryan GonzalezINC
68%32%
67%33%
D+3.6D+4.4Lean DLean DR+1—
HD-51D flipD flip
● Jacki Marsh● Amy Parks
81%19%
67%33%
D+6.2D+4.1Likely DLean DR+1—
HD-52
● Yara ZokaieINC● No RepublicanAlso: Steve Yurash (OTH)
No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot—Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)D+33—
HD-53
● Andrew BoeseneckerINC● Daniel Frick
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+52.6D+55.2Solid DSolid DD+51—
HD-54
● Mallory Martin● Jason Bias
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+31.1R+36.4Solid RSolid RR+41—
HD-55
● Brittni Packard● Rick TaggartINC
4%96%
13%87%
R+15.0R+10.9Solid RLikely RR+16—
HD-56
● No Democrat● Chris RichardsonINCAlso: Amy Lunde (L)
No Democrat on the ballotNo Democrat on the ballot—Solid R (no Democrat)Solid R (no Democrat)R+50—
HD-57
● Elizabeth VelascoINC● Russ Andrews
>99%<1%
97%3%
D+23.1D+20.5Solid DSolid DD+17—
HD-58
● No Democrat● Larry Don SucklaINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+10—
HD-59
● Katie StewartINC● Naomi Riess
97%3%
85%15%
D+14.8D+9.9Solid DLikely DD+7—
HD-60
● Kathryn Green● Matt Alexander
<1%>99%
<1%>99%
R+27.2R+32.9Solid RSolid RR+37—
HD-61
● Eliza HamrickINC● Scott ShamblinAlso: Kevin Gulbranson (L)
99%1%
92%8%
D+22.7D+13.9Solid DLikely DD+9—
HD-62
● Matthew MartinezINC● Steven RodriguezAlso: Donald Luke Vermillion (L)
96%4%
80%20%
D+14.4D+8.2Solid DLean DD+3—
HD-63
● No Democrat● Dusty A. JohnsonINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+58—
HD-64
● Maureen Dower● Scott SlaughINC
4%96%
5%95%
R+13.5R+16.5Solid RSolid RR+21—
HD-65
● No Democrat● Lori Garcia SanderINC
Republican unopposedRepublican unopposed—Uncontested RUncontested RR+18—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).