Michigan · 2026 forecast · Midwest region · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan in 2026
Michigan elects a U.S. senator and a governor, an attorney general, a secretary of state, all 13 members of the U.S. House, all 38 members of the State Senate and all 110 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.
On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · Governor · 2 statewide offices · 13 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.
- U.S. Senate
- D 76%D 76%Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers
- Governor
- D 90%D 88%Jocelyn Benson vs. John James
- U.S. House
- 7.6 D · 5.4 R7.2 D · 5.8 RExpected seats of 13 · 2 toss-ups
- Michigan State Senate
- D 94%D 76%Chance of control · 38 of 38 seats up
- Michigan House of Representatives
- D 77%D 62%Chance of control · 110 of 110 seats up
- Attorney General
- D 87%D 76%Eli Savit vs. Doug Lloyd
- Secretary of State
- D 90%D 80%Garlin Gilchrist vs. Anthony Forlini
U.S. House districts · Michigan
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Trifecta
Divided government now
No party holds the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- 71%
- Divided
- 27%
- Rep. trifecta
- 2%
Projected change: a Democratic trifecta is most likely (71%).
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- 51%
- Divided
- 44%
- Rep. trifecta
- 5%
Projected change: a Democratic trifecta is most likely (51%).
Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.
Statewide races
Every race decided by the whole state. Statewide offices nationwide.
Statewide offices
Ratings
Lean D1
Likely D1
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans).
The Michigan environment
The environment Michigan's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
- Michigan state offices vs. the nation
- −0.3± 3.8 (80% range) · 3 polled state races
- Michigan state-office environment
- D+9.20.3 pts more Republican than the nation
The polled state races behind it
Over time
Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Michigan environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.
U.S. House
13 districts. The national House forecast.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties.
Detroit
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MI-1 | ● Callie Barr● Jack BergmanINC | R+12.5R+15.4 | R+21 | — | ||
| MI-2 | ● Ben Ambrose● John MoolenaarINC | R+24.7R+24.0 | R+30 | — | ||
| MI-3 | ● Hillary ScholtenINC● Terri DeBoer | D+20.1D+15.2 | D+8 | — | ||
| MI-4Flip riskFlip risk | ● Sean McCann● Bill HuizengaINC | R+0.5R+1.5 | R+5 | 4 | ||
| MI-5 | ● Christian Vukasovich● Tim WalbergINC | R+20.2R+20.2 | R+27 | — | ||
| MI-6 | ● Debbie DingellINC● Heather Smiley | D+35.1D+31.4 | D+25 | — | ||
| MI-7D flipFlip risk | ● William Lawrence● Tom BarrettINC | D+1.5D+1.2 | R+1 | 2 | ||
| MI-8 | ● Kristen McDonald RivetINC● Thomas Smith | D+12.0D+5.6 | R+1 | — | ||
| MI-9 | ● Ray Pooley● Lisa McClainINC | R+27.2R+25.6 | R+32 | — | ||
| MI-10Flip riskFlip risk | ● Christina Hines● Mike Bouchard Jr. | D+0.8R+1.6 | R+5 | 2 | ||
| MI-11 | ● Jeremy Moss● Ethan Baker | D+26.7D+24.8 | D+17 | — | ||
| MI-12 | ● Rashida TlaibINC● James Hooper | D+52.7D+49.1 | D+42 | — | ||
| MI-13 | ● Donavan McKinney● T. P. Nykoriak | D+51.8D+50.9 | D+44 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).
Michigan Legislature
Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.
Michigan State Senate
Avg. 22 D – 16 R seats · 20 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 3%
Avg. 20 D – 18 R seats · 20 for control · D two-thirds supermajority 2%
Michigan State Senate ratings
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Every race.
Michigan House of RepresentativesProjected flipProjected flip
Avg. 59 D – 51 R seats · 56 for control
Avg. 57 D – 53 R seats · 56 for control
Michigan House of Representatives ratings
6 seats projected to flip: 6 R→D. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
5 seats projected to flip: 5 R→D. 3 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Every race.