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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Hawaii · 2026 forecast · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Who will control the Hawaii State Senate?

13 of 25 seats are on the ballot; the others are elected in alternate years. 13 seats make a majority. 17 make the two-thirds supermajority that can override a veto.

Democrats are very likely to control the Hawaii State Senate (>99%).

Democrats
>99%
chance of control
Republicans
<1%
Avg. D seats
22.580% range 22–23
Avg. R seats
2.580% range 2–3
Now
22 D · 3 R13 up this year

Democratic supermajority now (22 of 25 seats; 17 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

22 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party3 R now

Democrats are very likely to control the Hawaii State Senate (>99%).

Democrats
>99%
chance of control
Republicans
<1%
Avg. D seats
22.680% range 22–23
Avg. R seats
2.480% range 2–3
Now
22 D · 3 R13 up this year

Democratic supermajority now (22 of 25 seats; 17 needed for two-thirds): >99% chance it holds · <1% chance it's broken.

22 D nowMarks: two-thirds supermajority for each party3 R now

13 for control
13 for control
  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Holdover, not up this year

Race ratings

All 13 races, grouped by the leader's chance of winning.

No seat is projected to change parties. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).

1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D.

Solid D12

Likely D0

Lean D0

Toss-up1

Lean R0

Likely R0

Solid R0

Solid D12

Likely D0

Lean D1

Toss-up0

Lean R0

Likely R0

Solid R0

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent.

The map

Each district colored by the leader's chance of winning. Hover for details; click for the race.

Hawaii

Honolulu

  • Solid D
  • Likely D
  • Lean D
  • Toss-up
  • Lean R
  • Likely R
  • Solid R
  • Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Seats to watch

The closest races (Lean or Toss-up, Horizon), and the seats most likely to change parties.

Closest races

SD-20Markus OwensBob McDermottFlip riskD flip55%Dem.62%Dem.

Most likely to flip

SD-20Markus OwensBob McDermottFlip riskD flip55%to flip62%to flip SD-9Stanley ChangDavid A. Croswell<1%to flip<1%to flip SD-13Tricia Kwai Lin NakamatsuWallyn Kanoelani Christian<1%to flip<1%to flip

How this chamber is elected

Rules that shape these races and the forecast.

Staggered Senate

Senators serve four-year terms, with one two-year term after each redistricting, so about half the seats are on the ballot each election.

13 of 25 seats on the ballot; 12 holdovers (10 D, 2 R) serve until a later election.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning control, by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats >99%Republicans <1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Democrats >99%Republicans <1%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

Every outcome we simulated

Democratic seats across 40,000 simulations. Darker bars: the middle 80%.

13 for D control →D two-thirds →12141618202224
13 for D control →D two-thirds →12141618202224

Every race

13 races, 10 without a contest between the major parties.

13 races
DistrictCandidatesChance of winning (D · R)Avg. marginRatingLeanPolls
SD-2
● Joy San BuenaventuraINC● No RepublicanAlso: Fred Fogel (L)
No Republican on the ballotNo Republican on the ballot—Solid D (no Republican)Solid D (no Republican)D+30—
SD-5
● Troy HashimotoINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+27—
SD-8
● Ron KouchiINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+22—
SD-9
● Stanley ChangINC● David A. Croswell
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+42.1D+43.4Solid DSolid DD+38—
SD-10
● Jackson Sayama● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+44—
SD-11
● Carol FukunagaINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+47—
SD-13
● Tricia Kwai Lin Nakamatsu● Wallyn Kanoelani Christian
>99%<1%
>99%<1%
D+41.2D+41.4Solid DSolid DD+36—
SD-14
● Donna Mercado KimINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+20—
SD-15
● Glenn WakaiINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+16—
SD-17
● Donovan Dela CruzINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+18—
SD-20Flip riskD flip
● Markus Owens● Bob McDermott
55%45%
62%38%
D+0.8D+3.0Toss-upLean DR+3—
SD-21
● Mike GabbardINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DR+2—
SD-25
● Chris LeeINC● No Republican
Democrat unopposedDemocrat unopposed—Uncontested DUncontested DD+31—

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).